With increasing incidence and mortality, cancer is the leading cause of death in China and is a major public health problem. Because of China's massive population (1.37 billion), previous national incidence and mortality estimates have been limited to small samples of the population using data from the 1990s or based on a specific year. With high-quality data from an additional number of population-based registries now available through the National Central Cancer Registry of China, the authors analyzed data from 72 local, population-based cancer registries (2009-2011), representing 6.5% of the population, to estimate the number of new cases and cancer deaths for 2015. Data from 22 registries were used for trend analyses (2000-2011). The results indicated that an estimated 4292,000 new cancer cases and 2814,000 cancer deaths would occur in China in 2015, with lung cancer being the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer death. Stomach, esophageal, and liver cancers were also commonly diagnosed and were identified as leading causes of cancer death. Residents of rural areas had significantly higher age-standardized (Segi population) incidence and mortality rates for all cancers combined than urban residents (213.6 per 100,000 vs 191.5 per 100,000 for incidence; 149.0 per 100,000 vs 109.5 per 100,000 for mortality, respectively). For all cancers combined, the incidence rates were stable during 2000 through 2011 for males (+0.2% per year; P = .1), whereas they increased significantly (+2.2% per year; P < .05) among females. In contrast, the mortality rates since 2006 have decreased significantly for both males (-1.4% per year; P < .05) and females (-1.1% per year; P < .05). Many of the estimated cancer cases and deaths can be prevented through reducing the prevalence of risk factors, while increasing the effectiveness of clinical care delivery, particularly for those living in rural areas and in disadvantaged populations.

https://researchpubs.cancercouncil.com.au/cancercounciljspui/bitstream/1/1728/1/caac21338.pdf

Cancer statistics in China, 2015

OBJECTIVES: To consider methods and related evidence for evaluating bias in non-randomised intervention studies. DATA SOURCES: Systematic reviews and methodological papers were identified from a search of electronic databases; handsearches of key medical journals and contact with experts working in the field. New empirical studies were conducted using data from two large randomised clinical trials. METHODS: Three systematic reviews and new empirical investigations were conducted. The reviews considered, in regard to non-randomised studies, (1) the existing evidence of bias, (2) the content of quality assessment tools, (3) the ways that study quality has been assessed and addressed. (4) The empirical investigations were conducted generating non-randomised studies from two large, multicentre randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and selectively resampling trial participants according to allocated treatment, centre and period. RESULTS: In the systematic reviews, eight studies compared results of randomised and non-randomised studies across multiple interventions using meta-epidemiological techniques. A total of 194 tools were identified that could be or had been used to assess non-randomised studies. Sixty tools covered at least five of six pre-specified internal validity domains. Fourteen tools covered three of four core items of particular importance for non-randomised studies. Six tools were thought suitable for use in systematic reviews. Of 511 systematic reviews that included non-randomised studies, only 169 (33%) assessed study quality. Sixty-nine reviews investigated the impact of quality on study results in a quantitative manner. The new empirical studies estimated the bias associated with non-random allocation and found that the bias could lead to consistent over- or underestimations of treatment effects, also the bias increased variation in results for both historical and concurrent controls, owing to haphazard differences in case-mix between groups. The biases were large enough to lead studies falsely to conclude significant findings of benefit or harm. Four strategies for case-mix adjustment were evaluated: none adequately adjusted for bias in historically and concurrently controlled studies. Logistic regression on average increased bias. Propensity score methods performed better, but were not satisfactory in most situations. Detailed investigation revealed that adequate adjustment can only be achieved in the unrealistic situation when selection depends on a single factor. CONCLUSIONS: Results of non-randomised studies sometimes, but not always, differ from results of randomised studies of the same intervention. Non-randomised studies may still give seriously misleading results when treated and control groups appear similar in key prognostic factors. Standard methods of case-mix adjustment do not guarantee removal of bias. Residual confounding may be high even when good prognostic data are available, and in some situations adjusted results may appear more biased than unadjusted results. Although many quality assessment tools exist and have been used for appraising non-randomised studies, most omit key quality domains. Healthcare policies based upon non-randomised studies or systematic reviews of non-randomised studies may need re-evaluation if the uncertainty in the true evidence base was not fully appreciated when policies were made. The inability of case-mix adjustment methods to compensate for selection bias and our inability to identify non-randomised studies that are free of selection bias indicate that non-randomised studies should only be undertaken when RCTs are infeasible or unethical. Recommendations for further research include: applying the resampling methodology in other clinical areas to ascertain whether the biases described are typical; developing or refining existing quality assessment tools for non-randomised studies; investigating how quality assessments of non-randomised studies can be incorporated into reviews and the implications of individual quality features for interpretation of a review's results; examination of the reasons for the apparent failure of case-mix adjustment methods; and further evaluation of the role of the propensity score.

/pdf/evaluating-non-randomised-intervention-studies-2k25cz7x6r.pdf

Evaluating non-randomised intervention studies.

Importance Noncommunicable chronic diseases have become the leading causes of mortality and disease burden worldwide. Objective To investigate the prevalence of diabetes and glycemic control in the Chinese adult population. Design, Setting, and Participants Using a complex, multistage, probability sampling design, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in a nationally representative sample of 98 658 Chinese adults in 2010. Main Outcomes and Measures Plasma glucose and hemoglobin A 1c levels were measured after at least a 10-hour overnight fast among all study participants, and a 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test was conducted among participants without a self-reported history of diagnosed diabetes. Diabetes and prediabetes were defined according to the 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria; whereas, a hemoglobin A 1c level of Results The overall prevalence of diabetes was estimated to be 11.6% (95% CI, 11.3%-11.8%) in the Chinese adult population. The prevalence among men was 12.1% (95% CI, 11.7%-12.5%) and among women was 11.0% (95% CI, 10.7%-11.4%). The prevalence of previously diagnosed diabetes was estimated to be 3.5% (95% CI, 3.4%-3.6%) in the Chinese population: 3.6% (95% CI, 3.4%-3.8%) in men and 3.4% (95% CI, 3.2%-3.5%) in women. The prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 8.1% (95% CI, 7.9%-8.3%) in the Chinese population: 8.5% (95% CI, 8.2%-8.8%) in men and 7.7% (95% CI, 7.4%-8.0%) in women. In addition, the prevalence of prediabetes was estimated to be 50.1% (95% CI, 49.7%-50.6%) in Chinese adults: 52.1% (95% CI, 51.5%-52.7%) in men and 48.1% (95% CI, 47.6%-48.7%) in women. The prevalence of diabetes was higher in older age groups, in urban residents, and in persons living in economically developed regions. Among patients with diabetes, only 25.8% (95% CI, 24.9%-26.8%) received treatment for diabetes, and only 39.7% (95% CI, 37.6%-41.8%) of those treated had adequate glycemic control. Conclusions and Relevance The estimated prevalence of diabetes among a representative sample of Chinese adults was 11.6% and the prevalence of prediabetes was 50.1%. Projections based on sample weighting suggest this may represent up to 113.9 million Chinese adults with diabetes and 493.4 million with prediabetes. These findings indicate the importance of diabetes as a public health problem in China.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/articlepdf/1734701/joi130040.pdf

Prevalence and control of diabetes in Chinese adults.

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A User’s Guide

Screening with mammography uses X-ray imaging to find breast cancer before a lump can be felt. The goal is to treat cancer earlier, when a cure is more likely. The review includes seven trials that involved 600,000 women in the age range 39 to 74 years who were randomly assigned to receive screening mammograms or not. The studies which provided the most reliable information showed that screening did not reduce breast cancer mortality. Studies that were potentially more biased (less carefully done) found that screening reduced breast cancer mortality. However, screening will result in some women getting a cancer diagnosis even though their cancer would not have led to death or sickness. Currently, it is not possible to tell which women these are, and they are therefore likely to have breasts or lumps removed and to receive radiotherapy unnecessarily. If we assume that screening reduces breast cancer mortality by 15% after 13 years of follow-up and that overdiagnosis and overtreatment is at 30%, it means that for every 2000 women invited for screening throughout 10 years, one will avoid dying of breast cancer and 10 healthy women, who would not have been diagnosed if there had not been screening, will be treated unnecessarily. Furthermore, more than 200 women will experience important psychological distress including anxiety and uncertainty for years because of false positive findings.
Women invited to screening should be fully informed of both the benefits and harms. To help ensure that the requirements for informed choice for women contemplating whether or not to attend a screening programme can be met, we have written an evidence-based leaflet for lay people that is available in several languages on www.cochrane.dk. Because of substantial advances in treatment and greater breast cancer awareness since the trials were carried out, it is likely that the absolute effect of screening today is smaller than in the trials. Recent observational studies show more overdiagnosis than in the trials and very little or no reduction in the incidence of advanced cancers with screening.

/pdf/screening-for-breast-cancer-with-mammography-36k7l5kzia.pdf

Screening for breast cancer with mammography.

Objectives: To measure the incidence of treated non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in Australia in 2002 and investigate trends since 1985 by histological type, sex, age group, latitude and skin type. Design: Face-to-face survey between 1 January and 31 December 2002 using stratified sampling of households to identify people treated for skin cancer in the previous 12 months. Self-reported diagnoses were confirmed with treatment providers. Data from similar surveys conducted in 1985,1990 and 1995 were used to assess trends. Setting: Whole of Australia (population 19.6 million). Participants: Of 57 215 people interviewed, 4098 said they had been treated for skin cancer in the past year and 3198 gave permission for their diagnoses to be confirmed with their doctor. Results: 817 people were confirmed as having at least one skin cancer treated in the past year. The age-standardised rate per 100000 population for NMSC was 1170, for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) 884, and for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) 387. The estimated number of NMSC cases in Australia for 2002 was 374000. Cumulative risks to age 70 years of having at least one NMSC were 70% for men and 58% for women. Rates of BCC and SCC have increased since 1985, and the increases greatest for people aged 60 years and older; rates for those younger than 60 years have stabilised. Conclusions: The incidence of treated NMSC in Australia in 2002 was more than five times the incidence of all other cancers combined. Although the overall NMSC rates have risen since 1985, the stabilisation of rates for people younger than 60 years who were exposed to skin cancer prevention programs in their youth highlights the importance of maintaining and strengthening these programs.

Non-melanoma skin cancer in Australia: the 2002 national survey and trends since 1985.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(05)67344-8.pdf

Preventing chronic diseases in China

Objective: To describe recent trends in mortality from melanoma in Australia. Design: An analysis of trends in age standardised and age and sex specific mortalities by year of death and median year of birth (cohort). Setting: Australia. Subjects: All deaths from melanoma registered in Australia between 1931 and 1994. Results: Melanoma mortality rose steadily from 1931 to 1985. From 1959 the annual rate of increase was 6.3% in men and 2.9% in women, resulting in mortalities of 4.82 and 2.51 per 100000 person years in 1985 and 1989, respectively. Mortalities for both sexes seem to have plateaued from June 1985 onwards. In 1990-4 the rate rose by 3.7% in men to 5.00 per 100000 and in women it fell by 5.2% to 2.38 per 100000. The non-significant increase after 1985 in mortality in men was restricted to those aged over 70 years of age, whereas the fall in rates in women was mostly in those aged under 55 years. This pattern was generally reflected in the state trends, though with some variation: rates for women in Queensland had peaked in the late 1970s; while rates for men in New South Wales continued to rise in 1990-4, placing them above those for Queensland. Examination of mortalities specific for age, period, and cohort for Australia as a whole showed several salient features. Rates in men rose steeply in cohorts born before about 1930; were stable in cohorts born between 1930 and 1950; and fell in more recent cohorts. Rates in women showed similar changes but about five years earlier. Conclusion: Melanoma mortality in Australia peaked in about 1985 and has now plateaued. On the basis of trends in cohorts it can be expected to fall in coming years. Key messages Key messages On the basis of cohort trends up to 1977 previ- ous analysis predicted that melanoma mortality would not reach its peak before 2010 Mortality, however, peaked in around 1985 and is now falling in women Variation in this trend between states underlines the need to evaluate the cost effectiveness of differ- ent strategies to promote early detection

/pdf/has-mortality-from-melanoma-stopped-rising-in-australia-12pk87v6r6.pdf

Has mortality from melanoma stopped rising in Australia? Analysis of trends between 1931 and 1994.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this review was to evaluate the effectiveness of medical skills laboratories or simulators. In particular, it aimed to determine if performance in medical skills laboratories is transferable to actual clinical performance and maintained over time. METHODS A range of databases was utilised to search for relevant papers published from 1998 to June 2006. Articles were included in the review if they met a number of criteria that included the evaluation of a skills laboratory or simulator for the purpose of procedural skills training, that participants were either undergraduate medical students or postgraduate medical trainees, and that the study used a randomised, controlled trial (RCT) research design in evaluation. RESULTS A total of 44 RCTs were identified for inclusion in the review. Overall, 32 (70%) studies reported that simulator training significantly improved procedural skills performance in comparison with standard or no training. Twenty (45%) RCTs assessed the transfer of simulator performance to clinical skills performance; however, 8 of these used animal models, not real patients. Only 2 studies assessed the maintenance of skills post-intervention, both at 4-month follow-up periods. CONCLUSIONS Medical skills laboratories do lead to improvement in procedural skills compared with standard or no training at all when assessed by simulator performance and immediately post-training. However, there is a lack of well designed trials addressing the crucial issues of transferability to clinical practice and retention of skills over time. Further research must be carried out to address these matters if medical skills laboratories are to remain an integral component of medical education.

A systematic review of medical skills laboratory training: where to from here?

Background Studies have shown the benign to malignant ratio of excised pigmented skin lesions is suboptimal in primary care. Objectives To assess the impact of dermoscopy and short-term sequential digital dermoscopy imaging (SDDI) on the management of suspicious pigmented skin lesions by primary care physicians. Methods A total of 63 primary care physicians were trained in the use of dermoscopy and SDDI (interventions) and then recruited pigmented lesions requiring biopsy or referral in routine care by naked eye examination. They were then given a dermatoscope and the option of a SDDI instrument, and change of diagnosis and management was assessed. Results Following the use of the interventions on 374 lesions a total of 163 lesions (43·6%) were excised or referred, representing a reduction of 56·4%. Of the 323 lesions confirmed to be benign, 118 (36·5%) were excised or referred, leading to a reduction of 63·5% (P < 0·0005) in those requiring excision or referral. The baseline naked eye examination benign to melanoma ratio was 9·5 : 1 which decreased to 3·5 : 1 after the diagnostic interventions (P < 0·0005). Of the 42 malignant lesions included in the study (34 melanoma, six pigmented basal cell carcinoma and two Bowen disease) only one in situ melanoma was incorrectly managed (patient to return if changes occur) resulting in the correct management of 97·6% and 97·1% of malignant pigmented lesions and melanoma, respectively. Conclusions In a primary care setting the combination of dermoscopy and short-term SDDI reduces the excision or referral of benign pigmented lesions by more than half while nearly doubling the sensitivity for the diagnosis of melanoma. © 2009 British Association of Dermatologists.

/pdf/impact-of-dermoscopy-and-short-term-sequential-digital-3c29q1dsg4.pdf

Impact of dermoscopy and short‐term sequential digital dermoscopy imaging for the management of pigmented lesions in primary care: a sequential intervention trial

Robert Charles Burton

Papers

Non-melanoma skin cancer in Australia: the 2002 national survey and trends since 1985.

Preventing chronic diseases in China

Has mortality from melanoma stopped rising in Australia? Analysis of trends between 1931 and 1994.

A systematic review of medical skills laboratory training: where to from here?

Impact of dermoscopy and short‐term sequential digital dermoscopy imaging for the management of pigmented lesions in primary care: a sequential intervention trial