The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. We examine a number of other solar activity indicators including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores that vary in association with the sunspots. We examine the characteristics of individual solar cycles including their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, and the nature of active latitudes, hemispheres, and longitudes. We examine long-term variability including the Maunder Minimum, the Gleissberg Cycle, and the Gnevyshev-Ohl Rule. Short-term variability includes the 154-day periodicity, quasi-biennial variations, and double peaked maxima. We conclude with an examination of prediction techniques for the solar cycle.

The Solar Cycle

Reconstruction of continental palaeoclimate and palaeohydrology is currently hampered by limited information about isotopic patterns in the modern hydrologic cycle. To remedy this situation and to provide baseline data for other isotope hydrology studies, more than 4800, depth- and width-integrated, stream samples from 391 selected sites within the USGS National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) and Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) were analysed for δ18O and δ2H (http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/ofr/ofr00-160/pdf/ofr00-160.pdf). Each site was sampled bimonthly or quarterly for 2·5 to 3 years between 1984 and 1987. The ability of this dataset to serve as a proxy for the isotopic composition of modern precipitation in the USA is supported by the excellent agreement between the river dataset and the isotopic compositions of adjacent precipitation monitoring sites, the strong spatial coherence of the distributions of δ18O and δ2H, the good correlations of the isotopic compositions with climatic parameters, and the good agreement between the ‘national’ meteoric water line (MWL) generated from unweighted analyses of samples from the 48 contiguous states of δ2H=8·11δ18O+8·99 (r2=0·98) and the unweighted global MWL of sites from the Global Network for Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of δ2H=8·17δ18O+10·35.



The national MWL is composed of water samples that arise in diverse local conditions where the local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) usually have much lower slopes. Adjacent sites often have similar LMWLs, allowing the datasets to be combined into regional MWLs. The slopes of regional MWLs probably reflect the humidity of the local air mass, which imparts a distinctive evaporative isotopic signature to rainfall and hence to stream samples. Deuterium excess values range from 6 to 15‰ in the eastern half of the USA, along the northwest coast and on the Colorado Plateau. In the rest of the USA, these values range from −2 to 6‰, with strong spatial correlations with regional aridity. The river samples have successfully integrated the spatial variability in the meteorological cycle and provide the best available dataset on the spatial distributions of δ18O and δ2H values of meteoric waters in the USA. Published in 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Distribution of oxygen-18 and deuterium in river waters across the United States†

/pdf/statistical-theory-of-communication-4wy4yg9ato.pdf

Statistical Theory of Communication

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 ± 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 ± 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

/pdf/a-synthesis-of-solar-cycle-prediction-techniques-3hfmwgxv3r.pdf

A synthesis of solar cycle prediction techniques

Kinetics of aqueous phase reactions relevant for atmospheric chemistry.

The result of a study on the application of an improved statistical prediction method for estimating the intermediate-term (months) and long-term (years) behavior of solar flux is discussed. The study indicates that better predictions, in a chi square sense, are possible by selecting sets of the solar flux data such that each set (cycle) starts and ends at the maxima (or minima) for the data base and initialization point of the procedure. Then one applies a Lagrangian least-squares statistical technique. Evidence is also presented to support the existence of an aperiodic variation in the periods as well as the amplitudes.

Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F10.7)

Spacecraft acceleration resulting from firings of vernier control system thrusters is an important consideration in the design, planning, execution and post-flight analysis of laboratory experiments in space. In particular, scientists and technologists involved with the development of experiments to be performed in space in many instances required statistical information on the magnitude and rate of occurrence of spacecraft accelerations. Typically, these accelerations are stochastic in nature, so that it is useful to characterize these accelerations in statistical terms. Statistics of spacecraft accelerations are summarized.

Exceedance statistics of accelerations resulting from thruster firings on the Apollo-Soyuz mission

Equations of motion for rotating gravity gradiometer, developed for forced harmonic oscillator model

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19710024896/downloads/19710024896.pdf

A first order theory for rotating gravity gradiometers

Spacecraft acceleration resulting from firings of vernier control system thrusters is an important consideration in the design, planning, execution and post-flight analysis of laboratory experiments in space. In particular, scientists and technologists involved with the development of experiments to be performed in space in many instances required statistical information on the magnitude and rate of occurrence of spacecraft accelerations. Typically, these accelerations are stochastic in nature, so that it is useful to characterize these accelerations in statistical terms. Statistics of spacecraft accelerations are summarized. Previously announced in STAR as N82-12127

Robert L. Holland

Papers

Lagrangian least-squares prediction of solar flux (F10.7)

Exceedance statistics of accelerations resulting from thruster firings on the Apollo-Soyuz mission

A first order theory for rotating gravity gradiometers

Exceedance Statistics of Accelerations Resulting from Thruster Firings on the Apollo-Soyuz Mission