THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

Knowledge Management

House of Quality

Annual Energy Outlook

In recent years, response surface methodology (RSM) has brought many attentions of many quality engineers in different industries. Most of the published literature on robust design methodology is basically concerned with optimization of a single response or quality characteristic which is often most critical to consumers. For most products, however, quality is multidimensional, so it is common to observe multiple responses in an experimental situation. Through this paper interested person will be familiarize with this methodology via surveying of the most cited technical papers. It is believed that the proposed procedure in this study can resolve a complex parameter design problem with more than two responses. It can be applied to those areas where there are large data sets and a number of responses are to be optimized simultaneously. In addition, the proposed procedure is relatively simple and can be implemented easily by using ready-made standard statistical packages. Keywords—Multi-Response Surface Methodology (MRSM), Design of Experiments (DOE), Process modeling, Quality improvement; Robust Design.

Statistical Process Optimization Through Multi-Response Surface Methodology

Uncertain multi-objective multi-commodity multi-period multi-vehicle location-allocation model for earthquake evacuation planning

In this investigation, types of commercial and special polyacrylonitrile (PAN) fibers contain sodium 2-methyl-2acrylamidopropane sulfonate (SAMPS) and itaconic acid (IA) comonomers were studied by fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. The study of FT-IR spectra of PAN fibers samples with different comonomers shows that during stabilization of PAN fibers, the peaks related to C≡N bonds and CH2 are reduced sharply. These reductions are related to cyclization of nitrile groups and stabilization procedure. This reduction in PAN fibers contain IA comonomer is very intense in comparison with PAN fibers contain SAMPS comonomer. This fact indicates the cycling and stabilization for sample contain IA comonomer have been conducted more completely. Therefore the carbon fibers produced from this material have higher tensile strength due to suitable stabilization. Keywords—PAN Fibers, Stabilization, Carbon Fibers, FT-IR.

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FT-IR Study of Stabilized PAN Fibers for Fabrication of Carbon Fibers

Optimization of the volume fraction, the orientation and the through thickness location of the shape memory alloy (SMA) wires was used in order to minimize the maximum transverse deflection of the hybrid composite plate during the low-velocity impact phenomena. The prediction of optimal conditions of good geometrical properties of SMA wires in smart hybrid composites plays an important role in process planning. The present work deals with the study and development of a verified strict model for smart composite plate deflection, which embedded with the SMA wires, using response surface method (RSM). This method helped us to estimate deflection ratio as a mathematical function of the main process planning parameters. The experimentation was carried out with the first-order shear deformation theory, the Fourier series method and solving analytically the system of governing differential equations of the plate. The interaction between the impactor and the plate also modeled with a system having two-degrees-of-freedom, consisting of springs-masses. A nonlinear mathematical model, in terms of the volume fraction and layer sequence (the orientation and the through thickness location) of the SMA wires was delivered. The results indicated that the volume fraction is a more important factor affecting the optimization and the design process of the structures.

Analysis and optimization of smart hybrid composite plates subjected to low-velocity impact using the response surface methodology (RSM)

In this study, a stochastic multi-objective mixed-integer mathematical programming is proposed for logistic distribution and evacuation planning during an earthquake. Decisions about the pre- and post-phases of the disaster are considered seamless. The decisions of the pre-disaster phase relate to the location of permanent relief distribution centers and the number of the commodities to be stored. The decisions of the second phase are to determine the optimal location for the establishment of temporary care centers to increase the speed of treating the injured people and the distribution of the commodities at the affected areas. Humanitarian and cost issues are considered in the proposed models through three objective functions. Several sets of constraints are also considered in the proposed model to make it flexible to handle real issues. Demands for food, blood, water, blanket, and tent are assumed to be probabilistic which are related to several complicated factors and modeled using a complicated network in this study. A simulation is setup to generate the probabilistic distribution of demands through several scenarios. The stochastic demands are assumed as inputs for the proposed stochastic multi-objective mixed integer mathematical programming model. The model is transformed to its deterministic equivalent using chance constraint programming approach. The equivalent deterministic model is solved using an efficient epsilon-constraint approach and an evolutionary algorithm, called non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). First several illustrative numerical examples are solved using both solution procedures. The performance of solution procedures is compared and the most efficient solution procedure, i.e., NSGA-II, is used to handle the case study of Tehran earthquake. The results are promising and show that the proposed model and the solution approach can handle the real case study in an efficient way.

Sadigh Raissi

Papers

Statistical Process Optimization Through Multi-Response Surface Methodology

Uncertain multi-objective multi-commodity multi-period multi-vehicle location-allocation model for earthquake evacuation planning

FT-IR Study of Stabilized PAN Fibers for Fabrication of Carbon Fibers

Analysis and optimization of smart hybrid composite plates subjected to low-velocity impact using the response surface methodology (RSM)

Stochastic optimization model for distribution and evacuation planning (A case study of Tehran earthquake)