The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) was undertaken by NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office with two primary objectives: to place observations from NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites into a climate context and to improve upon the hydrologic cycle represented in earlier generations of reanalyses. Focusing on the satellite era, from 1979 to the present, MERRA has achieved its goals with significant improvements in precipitation and water vapor climatology. Here, a brief overview of the system and some aspects of its performance, including quality assessment diagnostics from innovation and residual statistics, is given.By comparing MERRA with other updated reanalyses [the interim version of the next ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)], advances made in this new generation of reanalyses, as well as remaining deficiencies, are identified. Although there is little difference between the new reanalyses i...

MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications

Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper Climate Change and Water draws together and evaluates the information in IPCC Assessment and Special Reports concerning the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources – their availability, quality, use and management. It takes into account current and projected regional key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and water. Its objectives are:

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Climate change and water.

Glacial melting in the Tibetan Plateau affects the water resources of millions of people. This study finds that—partly owing to changes in atmospheric circulations and precipitation patterns—the most intensive glacier shrinkage is in the Himalayan region, whereas glacial retreat in the Pamir Plateau region is less apparent.

Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/113/42/11770.full.pdf

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

Utah’s Great Salt Lake (GSL) is a closed-basin remnant of the larger Pleistocene-age Lake Bonneville. The modern instrumental record of the GSL-level (i.e. elevation) change is strongly modulated by Pacific Ocean coupled ocean/atmospheric oscillations at low frequency, and therefore reflects the decadalscale wet/dry cycles that characterize the region. A within-basin network of seven tree-ring chronologies was developed to reconstruct the GSL water year (September–August) level, based upon the instrumental record of GSL level from 1876 to 2005. The result was a 576-year reconstruction of the GSL level that extends from 1429 to 2005; all calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology were passed. The reconstruction explains 48% of the variance in the instrumental GSL level and exhibits significant periodicity at sub-decadal scales over the past six centuries. Meanwhile, predominance of multi-decadal periodicity in the early half of the record shifted to quasi-decadal dominance in the latter half, and this is consistent with that of proxy reconstructions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The GSL-level reconstruction is a crucial component to improving our insight into the possible controls of coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions on precipitation delivery.

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Tree-ring reconstruction of the level of Great Salt Lake, USA

Because of the geography of a narrow valley and surrounding tall mountains, Cache Valley (located in northern Utah and southern Idaho) experiences frequent shallow temperature inversions that are both intense and persistent. Such temperature inversions have resulted in the worst air quality in the nation. In this paper, the historical properties of Cache Valley’s winter inversions are examined by using two meteorological stations with a difference in elevation of approximately 100 m and a horizontal distance apart of ~4.5 km. Differences in daily maximum air temperature between two stations were used to define the frequency and intensity of inversions. Despite the lack of a long-term trend in inversion intensity from 1956 to present, the inversion frequency increased in the early 1980s and extending into the early 1990s but thereafter decreased by about 30% through 2013. Daily mean air temperatures and inversion intensity were categorized further using a mosaic plot. Of relevance was the discovery...

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Long-Term Winter Inversion Properties in a Mountain Valley of the Western United States and Implications on Air Quality

In the long term, precipitation in the Central U.S. decreases by 25% during the seasonal transition from June to July. This precipitation decrease has intensified since 1979 and such intensification could have enhanced spring drought occurrences in the Central U.S., in which conditions quickly evolve from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry. Various atmospheric and land reanalysis data sets were analyzed to examine the trend in the June–July seasonal transition. The intensified deficit in precipitation is accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux, tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, and elevated planetary boundary layer height, all of which can lead to surface drying. The change in tropospheric circulation was characterized by an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side—a pattern known to suppress rainfall in the Central U.S. This trending pattern shows similarity with the progression of the 2012 record drought.

An intensified seasonal transition in the Central U.S. that enhances summer drought.

Precipitation from the West African Monsoon (WAM) provides food security and supports the economy in the region. As a consequence of the intrinsic complexities of the WAM’s evolution, accurate simulations of the WAM and its precipitation regime, through the application of regional climate models, are challenging. We used the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Land Model (CLM) to explore impacts of radiation physics on the precipitation and dynamics of the WAM. Our results indicate that the radiation physics schemes not only produce biases in radiation fluxes impacting radiative forcing, but more importantly, result in large bias in precipitation of the WAM. Furthermore, the different radiation schemes led to variations in the meridional gradient of surface temperature between the north that is the Sahara desert and the south Guinean coastline. Climate diagnostics indicated that the changes in the meridional gradient of surface temperature affect the position and strength of the African Easterly Jet as well as the low-level monsoonal inflow from the Gulf of Guinea. The net result was that each radiation scheme produced differences in the WAM precipitation regime both spatially and in intensity. Such considerable variances in the WAM precipitation regime and dynamics, resulting from radiation representations, likely have strong feedbacks within the climate system and so have inferences when it comes to aspects of predicted climate change both for the region and globally.

Shih-Yu Wang

Papers

Tree-ring reconstruction of the level of Great Salt Lake, USA

Long-Term Winter Inversion Properties in a Mountain Valley of the Western United States and Implications on Air Quality

An intensified seasonal transition in the Central U.S. that enhances summer drought.

Significant impacts of radiation physics in the Weather Research and Forecasting model on the precipitation and dynamics of the West African Monsoon

The Deadly Himalayan Snowstorm of October 2014: Synoptic Conditions and Associated Trends