Showing papers by "Slobodan P. Simonovic published in 2005"
TL;DR: In this paper, a computerized simulation model for capturing human behavior during flood emergency evacuation is developed using a system dynamics approach, which simulates the acceptance of evacuation orders by the residents of the area under threat; number of families in the process of evacuation; and time required for all evacuees to reach safety.
Abstract: A computerized simulation model for capturing human behavior during flood emergency evacuation is developed using a system dynamics approach. It simulates the acceptance of evacuation orders by the residents of the area under threat; number of families in the process of evacuation; and time required for all evacuees to reach safety. The model is conceptualized around the flooding conditions (physical and management) and the main set of social and mental factors that determine human behavior before and during the flood evacuation. The number of families under the flood threat, population in the process of evacuation, inundation of refuge routes, flood conditions (precipitation, river elevation, etc.), and different flood warnings and evacuation orders related variables are among the large set of variables included in the model. They are linked to the concern that leads to the danger recognition, which triggers evacuation decisions that determine the number of people being evacuated. The main purpose of the model is to assess the effectiveness of different flood emergency management procedures. Each procedure consists of the choice of flood warning method, warning consistency, timing of evacuation order, coherence of the community, upstream flooding conditions, and set of weights assigned to different warning distribution methods. Model use and effectiveness are tested through the evaluation of the effectiveness of different flood evacuation emergency options in the Red River Basin, Canada.
189 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a feed-forward artificial neural network is trained by using back-percolation algorithm to predict peak flow, timing and shape of runoff hydrograph, based on causal meteorological parameters.
118 citations
TL;DR: The proposed methodology shows alternative ways of soliciting the opinion of a large number of stakeholders and aggregating those opinions for use in multi-objective decision making.
106 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada is assessed.
Abstract: The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence. According to the evaluated scenarios, climate change may have favourable impacts on the distribution of hydrological extremes in the study area. Extremes hydrologiques dans un basin versant du sud-ouest de l'Ontario sous conditions climatiques futures Resume Le changement climatique global peut avoir des impacts significatifs sur la frequence, l'amplitude, la localisation et la duree des extremes hydrologiques. Les extremes hydrologiques modifies auront d'importantes implications sur le dimensionnement des futures structures hydrauliques, le developpement des plaines d'inondation et la gestion des ressources en eau. Cette etude estime l'impact potentiel d'un climat modifie sur la repartition temporelle et l'amplitude des extremes hydrologiques dans un bassin versant densement peuple et urbanise du sud-ouest de l'Ontario, au Canada. Un ensemble de scenarios climatiques futurs est developpe grâce a un algorithme de generation de temps, lie aux sorties de modeles climatiques globaux. Ces scenarios climatiques sont ensuite transformes en ecoulement de bassin grâce a un modele hydrologique semi-distribue de la zone d'etude. Les resultats montrent que les ecoulements fluviaux maximum a venir dans la zone d'etude seront moins extremes et plus variables en termes d'amplitude, et plus irreguliers en termes d'occurrence saisonniere, qu'aujourd'hui. Les etiages peuvent devenir moins extremes et variables en termes d'amplitude, et plus irreguliers en termes d'occurrence saisonniere. Selon les scenarios evalues, le changement climatique peut avoir des impacts favorables sur la distribution des extremes hydrologiques dans la zone d'etude. Mots clefs changement climatique; modelisation hydrologique; crue; etiage; scenario climatique; Canada
92 citations
TL;DR: A new technique called Spatial Fuzzy Compromise Programming (SFCP) is developed to enhance the ability to address different uncertainties in spatial water resources decision-making.
Abstract: Water resources decision-making is a spatial problem. Topographical features of the region, location of water resources management infrastructure, interaction between the water resources system and other social and ecological systems and impact of different water resources regulation measures are all variables with considerable spatial variability. In this paper a new technique called Spatial Fuzzy Compromise Programming (SFCP) is developed to enhance our ability to address different uncertainties in spatial water resources decision-making. A general fuzzy compromise programming technique, when made spatially distributed, proved to be a powerful and flexible addition to the list of techniques available for decision-making where multiple criteria are used to evaluate multiple alternatives. All uncertain variables (subjective and objective) are modeled by way of fuzzy sets. Through a case study of the Red River floodplain near the City of St. Adolphe in Manitoba, Canada, it has been illustrated that the new technique provides measurable improvement in the management of floods.
63 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada is assessed.
Abstract: The global climate change may have serious impacts on the frequency, magnitude, location and duration of hydrological extremes. Changed hydrological extremes will have important implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood-plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of a changed climate on the timing and magnitude of hydrological extremes in a densely populated and urbanized river basin in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An ensemble of future climate scenarios is developed using a weather generating algorithm, linked with GCM outputs. These climate scenarios are then transformed into basin runoff by a semi-distributed hydrological model of the study area. The results show that future maximum river flows in the study area will be less extreme and more variable in terms of magnitude, and more irregular in terms of seasonal occurrence, than they are at present. Low flows may become less extreme and variable in terms of magnitude, and m...
55 citations
Journal Article•
TL;DR: This paper explores the utility of the fuzzy set theory in the field of water resource systems reliability analysis and proposes three new fuzzy reliability measures: (i) a combined reliability-vulnerability index, (ii) a robustness index, and (iii) a resiliency index.
Abstract: A metaphorical definition of resiliency is used in this paper: the capacity to weather and adapt to stress from hazards, and the ability to recover quickly from their impacts. Resiliency is often discussed in conjunction with vulnerability, a measure of the adverse effects of a hazardous event on a system, the magnitude of which is influenced by the system's resiliency. Vulnerability is determined by risk-proximity or exposure to hazards, which affects the probability of adverse impact and is a robustness-measure of the system's ability to adapt to a wide range of possible future conditions, at little additional cost. The greatest challenges for urban water infrastructure design, planning and management lie in our limited ability to quantify potential future conditions. This paper explores the utility of the fuzzy set theory in the field of water resource systems reliability analysis and proposes three new fuzzy reliability measures: (i) a combined reliability-vulnerability index, (ii) a robustness index, and (iii) a resiliency index.
1 citations
15 Jul 2005
15 Jul 2005
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors point out that there is uncertainty in all engineering-based systems because these systems rely on the modeling of physical phenomena that are either inherently random or difficult to model with a high degree of accuracy.
Abstract: One of the main goals of engineering design is to ensure that a system performs satisfactorily under a wide range of possible future conditions. This premise is particularly true of large and complex water resources systems. Water resources systems usually include conveyance facilities such as pipes and pumps, treatment facilities such as sedimentation tanks and filters, and storage facilities such as reservoirs and tanks. These elements are interconnected in complicated networks serving broad geographical regions. Each element is vulnerable to temporary disruption in service due to natural hazards or human error whether unintentional, as in the case of operational errors and mistakes, or due to intentional causes such as a terrorist act. Most of the hazards cannot be controlled or predicted with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Uncontrollable external factors also affect the capacity and the performance of water resource systems. The determination of the load pattern presents unique challenges. Ang and Tang (1) point out that there is uncertainty in all engineering-based systems because these systems rely on the modeling of physical phenomena that are either inherently random or difficult to model with a high degree of accuracy.
Keywords:
hazards;
uncertainty;
risk analysis;
reliability;
resiliency;
vulnerability;
robustness;
fuzzy reliability;
fuzzy representation;
margin of safety
15 Jul 2005
TL;DR: The principles and standards for planning water and related land resources used in the United States and introduced by the U.S. Water Resources Council in 1973 and modified in 1979 and 1980 as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Water resources planning and management process is a search for the solution of how to meet the needs of a population with the available resources (1). Water resources planning and management is as old as humanity. However, with knowledge and technology development, a change in the living standard of people, and further economic development, the analysis procedure changes.
An example of the principal water resources planning and management objectives for industrialized countries is based on the Principles and Standards for Planning Water and Related Land Resources used in the United States and introduced by the U.S. Water Resources Council in 1973 and modified in 1979 and 1980 (2). According to them the overall purpose of water resources planning and management is improvement of the quality of life through contributions to national economic development, environmental quality, regional economic development, and other social effects.
Keywords:
water resources planning;
systems analysis;
controllable;
inputs;
decision variables;
water resources design;
water resources;
operations;
mathematical modeling