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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

The boundary layer equations for plane, incompressible, and steady flow are 

$$\matrix{ {u{{\partial u} \over {\partial x}} + v{{\partial u} \over {\partial y}} = - {1 \over \varrho }{{\partial p} \over {\partial x}} + v{{{\partial ^2}u} \over {\partial {y^2}}},} \cr {0 = {{\partial p} \over {\partial y}},} \cr {{{\partial u} \over {\partial x}} + {{\partial v} \over {\partial y}} = 0.} \cr }$$

Boundary Layer Theory

The science of the total environment

Ecosystem services, the benefits that people obtain from ecosystems, are a powerful lens through which to understand human relationships with the environment and to design environmental policy. The explicit inclusion of beneficiaries makes values intrinsic to ecosystem services; whether or not those values are monetized, the ecosystem services framework provides a way to assess trade-offs among alternative scenarios of resource use and land- and seascape change. We provide an overview of the ecosystem functions responsible for producing terrestrial hydrologic services and use this context to lay out a blueprint for a more general ecosystem service assessment. Other ecosystem services are addressed in our discussion of scale and trade-offs. We review valuation and policy tools useful for ecosystem service protection and provide several examples of land management using these tools. Throughout, we highlight avenues for research to advance the ecosystem services framework as an operational basis for policy d...

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The Nature and Value of Ecosystem Services: An Overview Highlighting Hydrologic Services

Fluvial bank erosion rates are often quantified by assuming that the erosion rate is a function of the excess (above a critical threshold) boundary shear stress applied by the flow. Research has shown that the form roughness induced by natural topographic bank features, such as slumps, spurs and embayments, is the dominant component of the spatially-averaged total shear stress, meaning that form roughness provides an important control on bank erosion rates. However, measuring the relative components of the total shear stress for a natural system is not straightforward. In this paper we employ the method of Kean and Smith (2006a,b) to partition the form and skin drag components of river bank roughness using a time series (2005-2011) of high-resolution topographic surveys of an eroding bank of the Cecina River in central Italy. This method approximates the form drag component of the roughness along a longitudinal bank profile as a series of user defined Gaussian curves. The extracted metrics are used in conjunction with an estimate of the outer region flow velocity to partition the form and skin drag components of the total boundary shear stress according to the Kean and Smith analytical solution. The relative magnitude of the form and skin shear stress at each survey date is analysed alongside DEMs of difference to reveal that intense episodes of erosion are followed by periods of quiescence. We show that this is due to the protection offered by increased form drag roughness following erosion. We conceptualise the dynamic feedbacks that exist between river discharge, bank erosion processes and bank form roughness, into a simple model of the self-limiting nature of river bank erosion

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A self-limiting bank erosion mechanism? Inferring temporal variations in bank form and skin drag from high resolution topographic data.

Landowners along the Missouri River in Montana believe that the operation of Fort Peck Dam has initiated bank erosion, thus threatening agricultural development within the region. Their concerns have been heightened by proposals to increase discharge in order to enhance fisheries and wildlife interests. Geomorphological evaluation indicates that bed degradation and bank erosion have declined since construction of the dam, and the channel is now approaching dynamic equilibrium; public sensitivity to the proposed change is greater than the morphological sensitivity of the river. Sustainable management of the Missouri is now based on strategies that place more emphasis on partnership with local citizens.

A River Runs Through It: Morphological and Landowner Sensitivities Along the Upper Missouri River, Montana, USA

The world's deltas are at risk of being drowned due to rising relative sea levels as a result of climate change, decreasing supplies of fluvial sediment, and human responses to these changes. This paper analyses how delta morphology evolves over multi-decadal timescales under environmental change using a process-based model. Model simulations over 102 years are used to explore the influence of three key classes of environmental change, both individually and in combination: (i) varying combinations of fluvial water and sediment discharges; (ii) varying rates of relative sea-level rise; and (iii) selected human interventions within the delta, comprising polder-dykes and cross-dams. The results indicate that tidal asymmetry and rate of sediment supply together affect residual flows and delta morphodynamics (indicated by sub-aerial delta area, rates of progradation and aggradation). When individual drivers of change act in combination, delta building processes such as the distribution of sediment flux, aggradation, and progradation are disrupted by the presence of isolated polder-dykes or cross-dams. This suggests that such interventions, unless undertaken at a very large scale, can lead to unsustainable delta building processes. Our findings can inform management choices in real-world tidally-influenced deltas, while the methodology can provide insights into other dynamic morphological systems.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspa.2018.0396

Impacts of natural and human drivers on the multi-decadal morphological evolution of tidally-influenced deltas

Identifying the effects of parameter uncertainty on the reliability of modeling the stability of overhanging, multi-layered, river banks

/pdf/models-in-fluvial-geomorphology-2x6a543sbm.pdf

Stephen E. Darby

Papers

A self-limiting bank erosion mechanism? Inferring temporal variations in bank form and skin drag from high resolution topographic data.

A River Runs Through It: Morphological and Landowner Sensitivities Along the Upper Missouri River, Montana, USA

Impacts of natural and human drivers on the multi-decadal morphological evolution of tidally-influenced deltas

Identifying the effects of parameter uncertainty on the reliability of modeling the stability of overhanging, multi-layered, river banks

Models in Fluvial Geomorphology