https://spectrum.library.concordia.ca/976864/1/OkoliPawlowski2004DelphiPostprint.pdf

The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications

Guidelines and Expert Consensus Documents summarize and evaluate all currently available evidence on a particular issue with the aim to assist physicians in selecting the best management strategies for a typical patient, suffering from a given condition, taking into account the impact on outcome, as well as the risk–benefit ratio of particular diagnostic or therapeutic means. Guidelines are not substitutes for textbooks. The legal implications of medical guidelines have been discussed previously.

A great number of Guidelines and Expert Consensus Documents have been issued in recent years by the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) as well as by other societies and organizations. Because of the impact on clinical practice, quality criteria for development of guidelines have been established in order to make all decisions transparent to the user. The recommendations for formulating and issuing ESC Guidelines and Expert Consensus Documents can be found on the ESC web site (http://www.escardio.org/knowledge/guidelines/rules).

In brief, experts in the field are selected and undertake a comprehensive review of the published evidence for management and/or prevention of a given condition. A critical evaluation of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures is performed, including assessment of the risk–benefit ratio. Estimates of expected health outcomes for larger societies are included, where data exist. The level of evidence and the strength of recommendation of particular treatment options are weighed and graded according to predefined scales, as outlined in the tables below.

The experts of the writing panels have provided disclosure statements of all relationships they may have which might be perceived as real or potential sources of conflicts of interest. These disclosure forms are kept on file at the European Heart House, headquarters of the ESC. Any changes in conflict of interest that arise during the writing period must be notified to the ESC. The Task Force report was entirely …

/pdf/european-guidelines-on-cardiovascular-disease-prevention-in-17acj3uib4.pdf

European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (version 2012) : the fifth joint task force of the European society of cardiology and other societies on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts).

Summary
This report describes the epidemiology, burden, and treatment of osteoporosis in the 27 countries of the European Union (EU27).

/pdf/osteoporosis-in-the-european-union-medical-management-5gi5e439ck.pdf

Osteoporosis in the European Union: medical management, epidemiology and economic burden. A report prepared in collaboration with the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industry Associations (EFPIA).

Other experts who contributed to parts of the guidelines: Edmond Walma, Schoonhoven (The Netherlands), Tony Fitzgerald, Dublin (Ireland), Marie Therese Cooney, Dublin (Ireland), Alexandra Dudina, Dublin (Ireland) European Society of Cardiology (ESC) Committee for Practice Guidelines (CPG):, Alec Vahanian (Chairperson) (France), John Camm (UK), Raffaele De Caterina (Italy), Veronica Dean (France), Kenneth Dickstein (Norway), Christian Funck-Brentano (France), Gerasimos Filippatos (Greece), Irene Hellemans (The Netherlands), Steen Dalby Kristensen (Denmark), Keith McGregor (France), Udo Sechtem (Germany), Sigmund Silber (Germany), Michal Tendera (Poland), Petr Widimsky (Czech Republic), Jose Luis Zamorano (Spain)Document reviewers: Irene Hellemans (CPG Review Coordinator) (The Netherlands), Attila Altiner (Germany), Enzo Bonora (Italy), Paul N. Durrington (UK), Robert Fagard (Belgium), Simona Giampaoli(Italy), Harry Hemingway (UK), Jan Hakansson (Sweden), Sverre Erik Kjeldsen (Norway), Mogens Lytken Larsen ...

/pdf/european-guidelines-on-cardiovascular-disease-prevention-in-4vlgh0a6w5.pdf

European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: full text. Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology and other societies on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (constituted by representatives of nine societies and by invited experts).

Some tissue types give rise to human cancers millions of times more often than other tissue types. Although this has been recognized for more than a century, it has never been explained. Here, we show that the lifetime risk of cancers of many different types is strongly correlated (0.81) with the total number of divisions of the normal self-renewing cells maintaining that tissue’s homeostasis. These results suggest that only a third of the variation in cancer risk among tissues is attributable to environmental factors or inherited predispositions. The majority is due to “bad luck,” that is, random mutations arising during DNA replication in normal, noncancerous stem cells. This is important not only for understanding the disease but also for designing strategies to limit the mortality it causes.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/347/6217/78.full.pdf

Variation in cancer risk among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions

Objectives To investigate time trends in mortality after admission to hospital for fractured neck of femur from 1968 to 1998, and to report on the effects of demographic factors on mortality.

Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for fractured neck of femur, incorporating linkage to death certificates.

Setting Four counties in southern England.

Subjects 32 590 people aged 65 years or over admitted to hospital with fractured neck of femur between 1968 and 1998.

Main outcome measures Case fatality rates at 30, 90, and 365 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.

Results Case fatality rates declined between the 1960s and the early 1980s, but there was no appreciable fall thereafter. They increased sharply with increasing age: for example, fatality rates at 30 days in 1984-98 increased from 4% in men aged 64-69 years to 31% in those aged ≥ 90. They were higher in men than women, and in social classes IV and V than in classes I and II. In the first month after fracture, standardised mortality ratios in women were 16 times higher, and those in men 12 times higher, than mortality in the same age group in the general population.

Conclusions The high mortality rates, and the fact that they have not fallen over the past 20 years, reinforce the need for measures to prevent osteoporosis and falls and their consequences in elderly people. Whether post-fracture mortality has fallen to an irreducible minimum, or whether further decline is possible, is unclear.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/327/7418/771.full.pdf

Time trends and demography of mortality after fractured neck of femur in an English population, 1968-98: database study.

Against the Odds

https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa31921/Download/0031921-06032017111833.pdf

The incidence and aetiology of acute pancreatitis across Europe

Objectives To investigate trends in the incidence of acute pancreatitis resulting in admission to hospital, and mortality after admission, from 1963 to 1998. Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for acute pancreatitis, linked to data from death certificates. Setting Southern England. Subjects 5312 people admitted to hospital with acute pancreatitis. Main outcome measures Incidence rates for admission to hospital, case fatality rates at 0-29 and 30-364 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission. Results The incidence of acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital increased from 1963-98: age standardised incidence rates were 4.9 per 100 000 population in 1963-74, 7.7 in 1975-86, and 9.8 in 1987-98. Age standardised case fatality rates within 30 days of admission were 14.2% in 1963-74, 7.6% in 1975-86, and 6.7% in 1987-98. From 1975-98, standardised mortality ratios at 30 days were 30 in men and 31 in women (compared with the general population of equivalent age in the same period = 1), and they remained significantly increased until month 5 for men and month 6 for women. Conclusions Incidence rates for acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital rose in both men and women from 1963 to 1998, particularly among younger age groups. This probably reflects, at least in part, an increase in alcoholic pancreatitis. Mortality after admission has not declined since the 1970s. This presumably reflects the fact that no major innovations in the treatment of acute pancreatitis have been introduced. Pancreatitis remains a disease with a poor prognosis during the acute phase.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/328/7454/1466.full.pdf

Hospital admission for acute pancreatitis in an English population, 1963-98: database study of incidence and mortality

In vivo bromodeoxyuridine (BrdUrd) labelling of the human large bowel was performed and a detailed histochemical localisation of label in sections of crypts was undertaken using a monoclonal antibody to BrdUrd containing DNA. Flow cytometric studies on extracted nuclei were also performed (data presented elsewhere). The average crypt in the human large bowel (excluding the rectum) was 82 cells in height and 41 cells in circumference, with a total of about 2000 cells (assuming a topographical correction factor of 0.6). Ten per cent of the cells were replicating their DNA--that is, were in the S phase of the cell cycle--and 0.4% were in mitosis. The median position for the labelling index versus cell position frequency plot is at the 20th cell position--at a quarter of the crypt height. The lower and upper limits of the cell proliferation are given by the 5th and 95th percentiles at cell positions 4 and 43 respectively. The peak labelling index is about 30% and it occurs at cell position 15. The labelling index at the crypt base, the probable stem cell zone, is about 14%, suggesting that these cells have a longer cell cycle. Taking a value of 8.6 hours for the duration of the S phase (deduced from the flow cytometric data) and assuming a growth fraction of 1.0 for the mid-crypt, these data provide an estimate of about 30 hours for the cell cycle time. The rectal crypts are about the same size but contain about 30% fewer S phase cells. The data also yielded a per cent BrdUrd labelled mitosis curve.

https://gut.bmj.com/content/gutjnl/33/1/71.full.pdf

Stephen E. Roberts

Papers

Time trends and demography of mortality after fractured neck of femur in an English population, 1968-98: database study.

Against the Odds

The incidence and aetiology of acute pancreatitis across Europe

Hospital admission for acute pancreatitis in an English population, 1963-98: database study of incidence and mortality

Measurement of in vivo proliferation in human colorectal mucosa using bromodeoxyuridine.