Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

We describe PTRAJ and its successor CPPTRAJ, two complementary, portable, and freely available computer programs for the analysis and processing of time series of three-dimensional atomic positions (i.e., coordinate trajectories) and the data therein derived. Common tools include the ability to manipulate the data to convert among trajectory formats, process groups of trajectories generated with ensemble methods (e.g., replica exchange molecular dynamics), image with periodic boundary conditions, create average structures, strip subsets of the system, and perform calculations such as RMS fitting, measuring distances, B-factors, radii of gyration, radial distribution functions, and time correlations, among other actions and analyses. Both the PTRAJ and CPPTRAJ programs and source code are freely available under the GNU General Public License version 3 and are currently distributed within the AmberTools 12 suite of support programs that make up part of the Amber package of computer programs (see http://ambe...

PTRAJ and CPPTRAJ: Software for Processing and Analysis of Molecular Dynamics Trajectory Data

Everything you wanted to know about Markov State Models but were afraid to ask.

Markov state models (MSMs) are a powerful tool for modeling both the thermodynamics and kinetics of molecular systems. In addition, they provide a rigorous means to combine information from multiple sources into a single model and to direct future simulations/experiments to minimize uncertainties in the model. However, constructing MSMs is challenging because doing so requires decomposing the extremely high dimensional and rugged free energy landscape of a molecular system into long-lived states, also called metastable states. Thus, their application has generally required significant chemical intuition and hand-tuning. To address this limitation we have developed a toolkit for automating the construction of MSMs called MSMBUILDER (available at https://simtk.org/home/msmbuilder). In this work we demonstrate the application of MSMBUILDER to the villin headpiece (HP-35 NleNle), one of the smallest and fastest folding proteins. We show that the resulting MSM captures both the thermodynamics and kinetics of the original molecular dynamics of the system. As a first step toward experimental validation of our methodology we show that our model provides accurate structure prediction and that the longest timescale events correspond to folding.

Progress and challenges in the automated construction of Markov state models for full protein systems.

Using generalized ensemble simulations and Markov state models to identify conformational states.

Molecular dynamics simulation methods produce trajectories of atomic positions (and optionally velocities and energies) as a function of time and provide a representation of the sampling of a given molecule's energetically accessible conformational ensemble. As simulations on the 10-100 ns time scale become routine, with sampled configurations stored on the picosecond time scale, such trajectories contain large amounts of data. Data-mining techniques, like clustering, provide one means to group and make sense of the information in the trajectory. In this work, several clustering algorithms were implemented, compared, and utilized to understand MD trajectory data. The development of the algorithms into a freely available C code library, and their application to a simple test example of random (or systematically placed) points in a 2D plane (where the pairwise metric is the distance between points) provide a means to understand the relative performance. Eleven different clustering algorithms were developed, ranging from top-down splitting (hierarchical) and bottom-up aggregating (including single-linkage edge joining, centroid-linkage, average-linkage, complete-linkage, centripetal, and centripetal- complete) to various refinement (means, Bayesian, and self-organizing maps) and tree (COBWEB) algorithms. Systematic testing in the context of MD simulation of various DNA systems (including DNA single strands and the interaction of a minor groove binding drug DB226 with a DNA hairpin) allows a more direct assessment of the relative merits of the distinct clustering algorithms. Additionally, means to assess the relative performance and differences between the algorithms, to dynamically select the initial cluster count, and to achieve faster data mining by "sieved clustering" were evaluated. Overall, it was found that there is no one perfect "one size fits all" algorithm for clustering MD trajectories and that the results strongly depend on the choice of atoms for the pairwise comparison. Some algorithms tend to produce homogeneously sized clusters, whereas others have a tendency to produce singleton clusters. Issues related to the choice of a pairwise metric, clustering metrics, which atom selection is used for the comparison, and about the relative performance are discussed. Overall, the best performance was observed with the average-linkage, means, and SOM algorithms. If the cluster count is not known in advance, the hierarchical or average-linkage clustering algorithms are recommended. Although these algorithms perform well, it is important to be aware of the limitations or weaknesses of each algorithm, specifically the high sensitivity to outliers with hierarchical, the tendency to generate homogenously sized clusters with means, and the tendency to produce small or singleton clusters with average-linkage.

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Stephen W. Tanner

Papers

Clustering Molecular Dynamics Trajectories: 1. Characterizing the Performance of Different Clustering Algorithms.