Landslide susceptibility mapping at Golestan Province, Iran: A comparison between frequency ratio, Dempster-Shafer, and weights-of-evidence models

The main objective of the present study was to compare the performance of a classifier that implements the Logistic Regression and a classifier that employs a Naive Bayes algorithm in landslide susceptibility assessments. The study provides an evaluation concerning the influence of model's complexity and the size of the training data, while it identifies the most accurate and reliable classifier. The comparison of the two classifiers was based on the assessment of a database containing 116 sites located at the mountains of Epirus, Greece, where serious landslides events have been encountered. The sites are classified into two categories, non-landslide and landslide areas. The identification of those areas was established by analysing airborne imagery, extensive field investigation and the examination of previous research studies. The geo-environmental conditions in those locations where analyzed in regard with their susceptibility to slide. In particular, seven variables where analyzed: engineering geological units, slope angle, slope aspect, mean annual rainfall, distance from river network, distance from tectonic features and distance from road network. Multicollinearity analysis and feature selection was implemented in order to estimate the conditional independence among the variables and to rank the variables according to their significance in estimating landslide susceptibility. By the above processes the construction of nine different datasets was accomplished. Further partition allowed creating subsets of training and validating data from the original 116 sites. Each dataset was characterized by the number of the variables used and the size of the training datasets. The comparison and validation of the outcomes of each model was achieved using statistical evaluation measures, the receiving operating characteristic and the area under the success and predictive rate curves. The results indicated that model's complexity and the size of the training dataset influence the accuracy and the predictive power of the models concerning landslide susceptibility. In particular, the most accurate model with high predictive power was the eighth model (five variables and 92 training data), with the Naive Bayes classifier having a slightly higher overall performance and accuracy than the Logistic Regression classifier, 87.50% and 82.61% on the validation datasets, respectively. The highest area under the curve was achieved by the Naive Bayes classifier for both the training and validating datasets (0.875 and 0.806 respectively) while the Logistic Regression classifier achieved a lower AUC values for the training and validating datasets (0.844 and 0.711, respectively). When limited data are available it seems that more accurate and reliable results could be obtained by generative classifiers, like Naive Bayes classifiers. Overall, landslide susceptibility assessments could serve as a useful tool for the local and national authorities, in order to evaluate strategies to prevent and mitigate the adverse impacts of landslide events.

Comparison of a logistic regression and Naïve Bayes classifier in landslide susceptibility assessments: The influence of models complexity and training dataset size

The main objective of this study is to evaluate and compare the results of evidential belief functions and fuzzy logic models for spatial prediction of landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam, using geographic information systems. First, a landslide inventory map showing the locations of 118 landslides that have occurred during the last ten years was constructed using data from various sources. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly partitioned into training and validation datasets (70% of the known landslide locations were used for training and building the landslide models and the remaining 30% for the model validation). Secondly, nine landslide conditioning factors were selected (i.e., slope, aspect, relief amplitude, lithology, landuse, soil type, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to faults). Using these factors, landslide susceptibility index values were calculated using evidential belief functions and fuzzy logic models. Finally, landslide susceptibility maps were validated and compared using the validation dataset that was not used in the model building. The prediction-rate curves and area under the curves were calculated to assess prediction capability. The results show that all the models have good prediction capabilities. The model derived using evidential belief functions has the highest prediction capability. The model derived using fuzzy SUM has the lowest prediction capability. The fuzzy PRODUCT and fuzzy GAMMA models have almost the same prediction capabilities. In general, all the models yield reasonable results that may be used for preliminary landuse planning purposes.

Spatial prediction of landslide hazards in Hoa Binh province (Vietnam): A comparative assessment of the efficacy of evidential belief functions and fuzzy logic models

Landslide susceptibility and hazard assessments are the most important steps in landslide risk mapping. The main objective of this study was to investigate and compare the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, i.e., multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in Vaz Watershed, Iran. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 136 landside locations were constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly split into a training dataset 70 % (95 landslide locations) for training the ANN model and the remaining 30 % (41 landslides locations) was used for validation purpose. Nine landslide conditioning factors such as slope, slope aspect, altitude, land use, lithology, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, and rainfall were constructed in geographical information system. In this study, both MLP and RBF algorithms were used in artificial neural network model. The results showed that MLP with Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno learning algorithm is more efficient than RBF in landslide susceptibility mapping for the study area. Finally the landslide susceptibility maps were validated using the validation data (i.e., 30 % landslide location data that was not used during the model construction) using area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for RBF and MLP was 0.9085 (90.85 %) and 0.9193 (91.93 %) accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the area under the curve for MLP and RBF models were 0.881 (88.1 %) and 0.8724 (87.24 %), respectively. The results of this study showed that landslide susceptibility mapping in the Vaz Watershed of Iran using the ANN approach is viable and can be used for land use planning.

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Landslide susceptibility mapping at Vaz Watershed (Iran) using an artificial neural network model: a comparison between multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) algorithms

Landslides are one of the most frequent and common natural hazards in Malaysia. Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is one of the first and most important steps in the landslide hazard mitigation. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. For this reason, a number of different approaches have been used, including direct and indirect heuristic approaches, deterministic, probabilistic, statistical, and data mining approaches. Moreover, these landslides can be systematically assessed and mapped through a traditional mapping framework using geoinformation technologies. Since the early 1990s, several mathematical models have been developed and applied to landslide hazard mapping using geographic information system (GIS). Among various approaches, fuzzy logic relation for mapping landslide susceptibility is one of the techniques that allows to describe the role of each predisposing factor (landslide-conditioning parameters) and their optimal combination. This paper presents a new attempt at landslide susceptibility mapping using fuzzy logic relations and their cross application of membership values to three study areas in Malaysia using a GIS. The possibility of capturing the judgment and the modeling of conditioning factors are the main advantages of using fuzzy logic. These models are capable to capture the conditioning factors directly affecting the landslides and also the inter-relationship among them. In the first stage of the study, a landslide inventory was complied for each of the three study areas using both field surveys and airphoto studies. Using total 12 topographic and lithological variables, landslide susceptibility models were developed using the fuzzy logic approach. Then the landslide inventory and the parameter maps were analyzed together using the fuzzy relations and the landslide susceptibility maps produced. Finally, the prediction performance of the susceptibility maps was checked by considering field-verified landslide locations in the studied areas. Further, the susceptibility maps were validated using the receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) success rate curves. The ROC curve technique is based on plotting model sensitivity—true positive fraction values calculated for different threshold values versus model specificity—true negative fraction values on a graph. The ROC curves were calculated for the landslide susceptibility maps obtained from the application and cross application of fuzzy logic relations. Qualitatively, the produced landslide susceptibility maps showed greater than 82% landslide susceptibility in all nine cases. The results indicated that, when compared with the landslide susceptibility maps, the landslides identified in the study areas were found to be located in the very high and high susceptibility zones. This shows that as far as the performance of the fuzzy logic relation approach is concerned, the results appeared to be quite satisfactory, the zones determined on the map being zones of relative susceptibility.

Use of GIS-based fuzzy logic relations and its cross application to produce landslide susceptibility maps in three test areas in Malaysia

Landslides in Himalaya cause widespread damage in terms of property and human lives. It the present study, an attempt is made to derive information on causative parameters and preparation of landslide-susceptible map using fuzzy data integration in one of the seismically active region of Garhwal Himalaya that was recently devastated by a huge landslide. High-resolution remotely sensed data products acquired from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite before and after the landslide event were processed to improve interpretability and derivation of causative parameters. Spatial data sets such as lithology, rock weathering, geomorphology, lineaments, drainage, land use, anthropogenic factor, soil type and depth, slope gradient, and slope aspect were integrated using fuzzy gamma operator. The final map was reclassified in to five classes such as highly to lowly susceptible classes based on cumulative cutoff. The result shows around 72% of known landslide areas including the large Uttarkashi landslide in the high and very high susceptibility classes comprising of only 37% of the total area. The precipitation data from ground- and satellite-based observations were compared; the precipitation threshold and the role of seismic activity were analyzed for initiation of landslide.

Suvarna Dimri

Papers

Fuzzy-based method for landslide hazard assessment in active seismic zone of Himalaya