Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/13/E1191.full.pdf

New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −24 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −34%/decade from 2000 onwards We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO₂ emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m² throughout winter to more than 3 m² throughout summer Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO₂ emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO₂ emissions

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56/pdf

Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons

This paper is one of two companion papers which survey price elasticities of transport demand. In addition to reviewing empirical elasticity estimates for both freight and passenger demand, this paper also deals with theoretical and empirical issues in estimating transport demand elasticities. The second survey, by Dr. Philip Goodwin, is primarily concerned with empirical estimates of demand elasticities of public traansit system and automobile usage. The origins of motivations of these two papers were different. As was the coverage and sources used. The two papers complemented each other and are therefore published together with a pooled bibliography.

Concepts of price elasticities of transport demand and recent empirical estimates: an interpretative survey. in: urban transport

Several research projects all over the world have considered transport pricing measures and policies as promising attempts to solve urgent traffic problems in urban areas One important precondition for the successful implementation of pricing strategies is public acceptability However, empirical findings have shown that the acceptability of such strategies is low Until now economists have been looking for reasons for this refusal by analysing first of all socio-economic characteristics of the drivers concerned But it is doubtful whether these alone have high explanatory value Based on a heuristic acceptability model [IATSS Research 21 (1997) 134] different determinants of the acceptability of road pricing strategies are identified and analysed in more detail A public acceptability survey was carried out in four European cities (N=952 motorists) to investigate two main questions Firstly, how high is the current acceptability level of different urban transport pricing strategies? Secondly, do the factors as outlined in the acceptability model explain the level of acceptability? As expected, motorists’ stated acceptability of the investigated pricing strategies is rather low Concerning the factors influencing the degree of acceptability the analyses showed that in particular the variables ‘social norm’, ‘personal outcome expectations’ and the ‘perceived effectiveness’ are positively related with the acceptability of pricing strategies These variables account for nearly 40% of the criterion variance and thus can explain acceptability of such measures much better than the socio-economic variables included

Acceptability of urban transport pricing strategies

The private car is fast, comfortable, and convenient. However, worldwide massive car use causes serious environmental problems. Although breakthroughs in clean automobile technology may be under way, reducing car use seems necessary in order to achieve a sustainable transportation system. Several travel demand management (TDM) measures have therefore been proposed and some have been implemented with this aim. The article reviews research addressing the question of how effective, acceptable to the public, and politically feasible such measures are. The conclusion is that noncoercive TDM measures alone are unlikely to be effective in reducing car use. Therefore, coercive TDM measures such as increasing cost for or prohibiting car use may be necessary but are difficult to implement because of public opposition and political infeasibility. If combined with noncoercive TDM measures providing attractive travel alternatives and communicating the benefits of car-use reduction to the public, coercive TDM measures are likely to become more effective, acceptable, and politically feasible.

Travel Demand Management Targeting Reduced Private Car Use: Effectiveness, Public Acceptability and Political Feasibility

The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: Cases from Bulk Shipping

Toll financing in Norway: The success, the failures and perspectives for the future

On public attitudes toward implementation of toll roads—the case of Oslo toll ring

This paper presents a meta-analysis of variations in seaports’ Mean Technical Efficiency (MTE) scores based on 40 studies published in refereed academic journals. We link the variation in estimated MTE scores to differences in the following factors: the frontier methodology used, which essentially are the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA); regions where seaports are situated; type of data used; number of observations; and the total number of variables used. Furthermore, we compare fixed-effects against a random-effects regression model where the latter assumes that the individual study specific characteristics matter while the former assumes that there is one general tendency across all studies. We present several findings based on the data: (1) the random-effects model outperforms the fixed effects model in explaining the variations in MTEs, (2) recently published studies have lower MTE scores as compared with earlier published studies, (3) studies that used nonparametric DEA models depict higher MTE scores as compared with those that used SFA models, (4) panel data studies have lower TE scores as compared with cross-sectional data, and (5) studies using European seaport data produce lower MTE scores when compared with the rest of the world. Finally, our results contradict some previous meta-analysis studies of TE scores. We encourage the use of random-effects models in meta-analysis studies because they account for individual study specific effects.

Svein Bråthen

Papers

The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: Cases from Bulk Shipping

Toll financing in Norway: The success, the failures and perspectives for the future

On public attitudes toward implementation of toll roads—the case of Oslo toll ring

A meta-analysis of DEA and SFA studies of the technical efficiency of seaports: A comparison of fixed and random-effects regression models

Impact of airports on regional accessibility and social development