MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood.

Models of teaching as a decision-making process have questioned whether teachers make judgments about student performance following Bayes’ theorem or simpler heuristic rules that may lead to systematic errors. Although research suggests that people are not Bayesian, Winkler argues that professional decisions may be Bayesian. To determine whether teachers’ estimates of student performance are consistent with Bayes’ rule, 164 subjects (teachers and non-teachers) were randomly assigned to one of 16 cells (24 design). Sixteen different stories about a fictitious student were constructed and presented to the subjects. These stories varied in terms of the reliability and valence of the information they contained. Subjects read the first section of the story and were asked to make initial estimates of the student’s future academic performance and preinstructional and interactive decisions. They then read the second section and were requested to revise their estimates and decisions based on the additional informa...

Teachers’ Sensitivity to the Reliability of Information in Making Pedagogical Decisions

Subjects presented with fictitious criminal case material were found to overestimate the probabilities of compound as compared with component events. An analogy to bayesian cascaded inference behaviour was discussed. Results of functional measurement and correlational procedures suggested a three-strategy model of compound probability estimation, applicable where there are two component events. According to the model, subjects base their choice of an information processing strategy on the larger and smaller component probability assessments and on a criterion value for each.

T.A. Willke

Papers

The application of Bayes's theorem when the true data state is uncertain