Journal ArticleDOI
The application of Bayes's theorem when the true data state is uncertain
Charles F. Gettys,T.A. Willke +1 more
TLDR
In this article, the authors discuss the application of Bayes's theorem to those cases where the true state of the world is not known with certainty, and propose an algorithm that relaxes the requirement that the true data state be known with absolute certainty by postulating a true but unobservable elementary event, which gives rise to posterior probabilities which reflect the uncertainty of the data.About:
This article is published in Organizational Behavior and Human Performance.The article was published on 1969-05-01. It has received 32 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Bayesian inference & Bayes' rule.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood.
Journal ArticleDOI
Teachers’ Sensitivity to the Reliability of Information in Making Pedagogical Decisions
TL;DR: It is argued that professional decisions may be Bayesian, and subjects’ estimates and preinstructional decisions roughly followed Bayes’ rule, while subjects may have found information about general ability less relevant to interactive instructional decisions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Assessing probabilities of compound events in a judicial context
TL;DR: In this article, subject to fictitious criminal case material were found to overestimate the probabilities of compound as compared with component events and an analogy to bayesian cascaded inference behavior was discussed.
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Comments on the relationship between the impact and the reliability of evidence
TL;DR: In this article, the adjusted likelihood ratio (A) is defined which incorporates information about source reliability and information about the inferential impact (L) of the event being reported, and it is shown that when source reliability is contingent upon some hypothesis, then A can be greater than L for the event.
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The best guess hypothesis in multistage inference
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the S primarily attends to the implications of the probable event described by the first-stage inference, neglecting the implication of less likely events.
References
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Book
Signal detection theory and psychophysics
David M. Green,John A. Swets +1 more
TL;DR: This book discusses statistical decision theory and sensory processes in signal detection theory and psychophysics and describes how these processes affect decision-making.
Simulation system design for a teas simulation research facility
TL;DR: A conceptual device is described that may be of pro ise in developing decision-making systems and consists of a modifica ion of scientific method embodied on the B yes theorem and is designated as the modifie Bayes theorem.