There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1°C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmo- spheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid- to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate mod- els and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmo- spheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nino a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

/pdf/changes-in-precipitation-with-climate-change-3ofcyuiy76.pdf

Changes in precipitation with climate change

Observed changes in intense precipitation (e.g., the frequency of very heavy precipitation or the upper 0.3% of daily precipitation events) have been analyzed for over half of the land area of the globe. These changes have been linked to changes in intense precipitation for three transient climate model simulations, all with greenhouse gas concentrations increasing during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and doubling in the later part of the twenty-first century. It was found that both the empirical evidence from the period of instrumental observations and model projections of a greenhouse-enriched atmosphere indicate an increasing probability of intense precipitation events for many extratropical regions including the United States. Although there can be ambiguity as to the impact of more frequent heavy precipitation events, the thresholds of the definitions of these events were raised here, such that they are likely to be disruptive. Unfortunately, reliable assertions of very heavy and extreme precipitation changes are possible only for regions with dense networks due to the small radius of correlation for many intense precipitation events.

/pdf/trends-in-intense-precipitation-in-the-climate-record-31hf4velzn.pdf

Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record

Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change

] Earlier reports indicated some specific isolated regionsexhibiting a paradoxical increase of extreme rainfall in spite ofdecrease in the totals. Here, we conduct a coherent study of thefull-scale of daily rainfall categories over a relatively largesubtropical region- the Mediterranean- in order to assess whetherthis paradoxical behavior is real and its extent. We show that thetorrential rainfall in Italy exceeding 128 mm/d has increasedpercentage-wise by a factor of 4 during 1951–1995 with strongpeaks in El-Nino years. In Spain, extreme categories at both tails ofthe distribution (light: 0-4 mm/d and heavy/torrential: 64 mm/d andup) increased significantly. No significant trends were found inIsrael and Cyprus. The consequent redistribution of the dailyrainfall categories -torrential/heavy against the moderate/lightintensities - is of utmost interest particularly in the semi-aridsub-tropical regions for purposes of water management, soilerosion and flash floods impacts. I

/pdf/the-paradoxical-increase-of-mediterranean-extreme-daily-18db3nnfiq.pdf

The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values

Publisher Summary The Mediterranean Region has many morphologic, geographical, historical, and societal characteristics, which make its climate scientifically interesting. The concept of Mediterranean climate is characterized by mild wet winters and warm to hot, dry summers and occur on the west side of continents between about 30° and 40° latitude. However, the presence of a relatively large mass of water is unique to the actual Mediterranean region. The Mediterranean Sea is a marginal and semi-enclosed sea; it is located on the western side of a large continental area and is surrounded by Europe to the North, Africa to the South, and Asia to the East. The chapter discusses that the climate of the Mediterranean region is to a large extent forced by planetary scale patterns. The time and space behavior of the regional features associated with such large-scale forcing is complex. Orography and land–sea distribution play an important role establishing the climate at basin scale and its teleconnections with global patterns. Different levels of services of readiness to emergencies, technological, and economic resources are likely to result in very different adaptation capabilities to environmental changes and new problems. The different economic situations and demographic trends are likely to produce contrasts and conflicts in a condition of limited available resources and environmental stress.

/pdf/the-mediterranean-climate-an-overview-of-the-main-159xl8ct44.pdf

The Mediterranean climate: An overview of the main characteristics and issues

Annual and monthly rainfall totals in Israel were analyzed to reveal any long term changes in their temporal and spatial distribution patterns, since the 1930s. The data consists of 60 rainfall stations, spread all over Israel from the far North to the Negev desert in the South, with long-term records of rainfall covering two normal periods. A gamma distribution function was fitted to the annual rainfall at each station for the two normal periods, and the shape and scale parameters of the distribution, as well as their percentage changes during the last normal period with respect to the first one, were analyzed.

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Spatial and Temporal Changes in Rainfall Frequency Distribution Patterns in Israel

Summary Daily maximum and minimum temperatures from 40 stations in Israel were analyzed to detect long-term trends and changes in temporal and spatial distribution patterns during the second half of the 20th Century. The trend analysis, reveals a rather complex changing pattern, with a significant decreasing trend of both the daily maximum and minimum temperature, during the cool season, and an increasing trend during the warm season. The seasonal temperature range exhibits an increasing trend: the summers have become warmer while the winters have become colder. The increase of the minimum summer temperature is more pronounced than the increase of the maximum temperature, while the decrease of the maximum temperature in winter is greater than the decrease of the minimum, thus resulting in a significant decline of the air temperature diurnal range in both seasons. It appears that the frequency of occurrence of extreme temperature events, with lower winter and higher summer temperatures, has increased. On an annual basis, there seems to be almost no temporal trends in minimum and maximum temperatures since the changes in winter and summer show an opposite tendencey.

/pdf/temporal-and-spatial-trends-of-temperature-patterns-in-wmhjmoybcr.pdf

Temporal and Spatial Trends of Temperature Patterns in Israel

Within the study region in southern Israel, the annual average rainfall during the period 1961–1990 increased by up to ~ 30%, with only minor changes in the control stations representing the central and northern parts of the country. The retreat of aridity is made even more pronounced by an appreciable decrease in the coefficient of variation (CV) in nearly all of the 30 rain stations within the study region. The geographical area where maximum CV reductions were found correlates well with the area where intensive land-use variations took place with the initial operation of the National Water Carrier in 1964. A global climate change in the sea surface temperatures starting in the early 1960's may have had an effect to increase seasonal rainfall. Current research is aimed at resolving this issue.

Long-term changes in annual rainfall patterns in southern Israel

Teleconnections associated with changing patterns of temperature and pressure anomalies over Israel during the second half of the 20th century are investigated. Relatively high, statistically significant, correlation coefficients of −0.8 and +0.9 were found between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index anomalies and smoothed (5 year running mean) cool season temperature and surface pressure anomalies in Israel, respectively. A relatively high positive correlation, (r = 0.8) was also found between the NAO Index anomalies and smoothed geopotential height of the 1000 hPa pressure level, during the cool season at Bet Dagan radiosonde station located on the Israel Mediterranean coastal plain. Correlation coefficients between NAO Index anomalies and the higher standard pressure levels, 850 and 700 hPa, decrease gradually and become negative (not statistically significant) for the 500 hPa level.

http://www.tau.ac.il/~pinhas/papers/2001/Ben-Gai_et_al_TAC_2001.pdf

T. Ben-Gai

Papers

The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of decrease in total values

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Rainfall Frequency Distribution Patterns in Israel

Temporal and Spatial Trends of Temperature Patterns in Israel

Long-term changes in annual rainfall patterns in southern Israel

Temperature and surface pressure anomalies in Israel and the North Atlantic Oscillation