Existing strategies for econometric analysis related to macroeconomics are subject to a number of serious objections, some recently formulated, some old. These objections are summarized in this paper, and it is argued that taken together they make it unlikely that macroeconomic models are in fact over identified, as the existing statistical theory usually assumes. The implications of this conclusion are explored, and an example of econometric work in a non-standard style, taking account of the objections to the standard style, is presented. THE STUDY OF THE BUSINESS cycle, fluctuations in aggregate measures of economic activity and prices over periods from one to ten years or so, constitutes or motivates a large part of what we call macroeconomics. Most economists would agree that there are many macroeconomic variables whose cyclical fluctuations are of interest, and would agree further that fluctuations in these series are interrelated. It would seem to follow almost tautologically that statistical models involving large numbers of macroeconomic variables ought to be the arena within which macroeconomic theories confront reality and thereby each other. Instead, though large-scale statistical macroeconomic models exist and are by some criteria successful, a deep vein of skepticism about the value of these models runs through that part of the economics profession not actively engaged in constructing or using them. It is still rare for empirical research in macroeconomics to be planned and executed within the framework of one of the large models. In this lecture I intend to discuss some aspects of this situation, attempting both to offer some explanations and to suggest some means for improvement. I will argue that the style in which their builders construct claims for a connection between these models and reality-the style in which "identification" is achieved for these models-is inappropriate, to the point at which claims for identification in these models cannot be taken seriously. This is a venerable assertion; and there are some good old reasons for believing it;2 but there are also some reasons which have been more recently put forth. After developing the conclusion that the identification claimed for existing large-scale models is incredible, I will discuss what ought to be done in consequence. The line of argument is: large-scale models do perform useful forecasting and policy-analysis functions despite their incredible identification; the restrictions imposed in the usual style of identification are neither essential to constructing a model which can perform these functions nor innocuous; an alternative style of identification is available and practical. Finally we will look at some empirical work based on an alternative style of macroeconometrics. A six-variable dynamic system is estimated without using 1 Research for this paper was supported by NSF Grant Soc-76-02482. Lars Hansen executed the computations. The paper has benefited from comments by many people, especially Thomas J. Sargent

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Macroeconomics and reality

Methods for studying the stability over time of regression relationships are considered. Recursive residuals, defined to be uncorrelated with zero means and constant variance, are introduced and tests based on the cusum and cusum of squares of recursive residuals are developed. Further techniques based on moving regressions, in which the regression model is fitted from a segment of data which is moved along the series, and on regression models whose coefficients are polynomials in time are studied. The Quandt log-likelihood ratio statistic is considered. Emphasis is placed on the use of graphical methods. The techniques proposed have been embodied in a comprehensive computer program, TIMVAR. Use of the techniques is illustrated by applying them to three sets of data.

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x

Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time

Best methods for the analysis of change : recent advances, unanswered questions, future directions

https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1989.tb01756.x

Model Specification in Multivariate Time Series

This paper deals with the factor modeling for high-dimensional time series based on a dimension-reduction viewpoint. Under stationary settings, the inference is simple in the sense that both the number of factors and the factor loadings are estimated in terms of an eigenanalysis for a nonnegative definite matrix, and is therefore applicable when the dimension of time series is on the order of a few thousands. Asymptotic properties of the proposed method are investigated under two settings: (i) the sample size goes to infinity while the dimension of time series is fixed; and (ii) both the sample size and the dimension of time series go to infinity together. In particular, our estimators for zero-eigenvalues enjoy faster convergence (or slower divergence) rates, hence making the estimation for the number of factors easier. In particular, when the sample size and the dimension of time series go to infinity together, the estimators for the eigenvalues are no longer consistent. However, our estimator for the number of the factors, which is based on the ratios of the estimated eigenvalues, still works fine. Furthermore, this estimation shows the so-called "blessing of dimensionality" property in the sense that the performance of the estimation may improve when the dimension of time series increases. A two-step procedure is investigated when the factors are of different degrees of strength. Numerical illustration with both simulated and real data is also reported.

Factor modeling for high-dimensional time series: Inference for the number of factors

The identification of a multivariable stochastic system, usually, involves the estimation of a transfer function matrix, which is a general function of frequency. This estimation involves inversion of a large Hermitian matrix, which sometimes may become unwieldly. In this paper we describe how "principal component analysis" in the frequency domain may be used to replace the input/output variables by some function of smaller dimensions without much "loss of information." The analogy between the "factor analysis" of time series in frequency domain and the minimal realization of state space models is pointed out. The principal component approach described in this paper is applied in the case of a simulated system.

Applications of principal component analysis and factor analysis in the identification of multivariable systems

In studies of linear open-loop systems, the assumption of time invariance is often tacitly made. In this paper we show how a time dependent system can arise quite naturally. The estimation of time dependent transfer function, on the basis of a single realization, when the input/output processes are nonstationary is considered. We also consider the problem of testing a given open-loop system for time dependence. The tests described here make use of the concept of the "evolutionary cross spectra," and rests essentially on testing the "uniformity" of a set of vectors, whose components consist of the "evolutionary gain spectra" and "evolutionary phase spectra." Using a logarithmic transformation on the evolutionary gain spectra, we show that the mechanics of the tests are formally equivalent to a two-factor multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) procedure. Numerical illustrations, from the real and simulated data, of the proposed tests are included.

T. Rao

Papers

Applications of principal component analysis and factor analysis in the identification of multivariable systems

Linear time dependent systems