Today's Web-enabled deluge of electronic data calls for automated methods of data analysis. Machine learning provides these, developing methods that can automatically detect patterns in data and then use the uncovered patterns to predict future data. This textbook offers a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of machine learning, based on a unified, probabilistic approach. The coverage combines breadth and depth, offering necessary background material on such topics as probability, optimization, and linear algebra as well as discussion of recent developments in the field, including conditional random fields, L1 regularization, and deep learning. The book is written in an informal, accessible style, complete with pseudo-code for the most important algorithms. All topics are copiously illustrated with color images and worked examples drawn from such application domains as biology, text processing, computer vision, and robotics. Rather than providing a cookbook of different heuristic methods, the book stresses a principled model-based approach, often using the language of graphical models to specify models in a concise and intuitive way. Almost all the models described have been implemented in a MATLAB software package--PMTK (probabilistic modeling toolkit)--that is freely available online. The book is suitable for upper-level undergraduates with an introductory-level college math background and beginning graduate students.

Machine Learning : A Probabilistic Perspective

Secret History: Return of the Black Death Channel 4, 7-8pm In 1348 the Black Death swept through London, killing people within days of the appearance of their first symptoms. Exactly how many died, and why, has long been a mystery. This Secret History documentary follows experts as they pick through the evidence and reveal why the plague killed on such a scale. And they ask, what might be coming next?

Medscape

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

KEGG(Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes)〔和文〕 (特集 ゲノム医学の現在と未来--基礎と臨床) -- (データベース)

Background: The number of Mendelian randomization analyses including large numbers of genetic variants is rapidly increasing. This is due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies, and the desire to obtain more precise estimates of causal effects. However, some genetic variants may not be valid instrumental variables, in particular due to them having more than one proximal phenotypic correlate (pleiotropy).

Methods: We view Mendelian randomization with multiple instruments as a meta-analysis, and show that bias caused by pleiotropy can be regarded as analogous to small study bias. Causal estimates using each instrument can be displayed visually by a funnel plot to assess potential asymmetry. Egger regression, a tool to detect small study bias in meta-analysis, can be adapted to test for bias from pleiotropy, and the slope coefficient from Egger regression provides an estimate of the causal effect. Under the assumption that the association of each genetic variant with the exposure is independent of the pleiotropic effect of the variant (not via the exposure), Egger’s test gives a valid test of the null causal hypothesis and a consistent causal effect estimate even when all the genetic variants are invalid instrumental variables.

Results: We illustrate the use of this approach by re-analysing two published Mendelian randomization studies of the causal effect of height on lung function, and the causal effect of blood pressure on coronary artery disease risk. The conservative nature of this approach is illustrated with these examples.

Conclusions: An adaption of Egger regression (which we call MR-Egger) can detect some violations of the standard instrumental variable assumptions, and provide an effect estimate which is not subject to these violations. The approach provides a sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the findings from a Mendelian randomization investigation.

/pdf/mendelian-randomization-with-invalid-instruments-effect-1pqi6rglyj.pdf

Mendelian randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression

https://www.europeanurology.com/article/S0302-2838(11)00431-3/pdf/genital-condylomata-are-not-the-human-papilloma-virus-male-infection-burden

Genital condylomata are not the human papilloma virus male infection burden.

A possible negative effect of co-administered amlodipine and atorvastatin on semen volume and spermatozoa in men.

Motivated by recent research on quantifying bacterial growth dynamics based on genome assemblies, we consider a permuted monotone matrix model $Y=\Theta\Pi+Z$, where the rows represent different samples, the columns represent contigs in genome assemblies and the elements represent log-read counts after preprocessing steps and Guanine-Cytosine (GC) adjustment. In this model, $\Theta$ is an unknown mean matrix with monotone entries for each row, $\Pi$ is a permutation matrix that permutes the columns of $\Theta$, and $Z$ is a noise matrix. This paper studies the problem of estimation/recovery of $\Pi$ given the observed noisy matrix $Y$. We propose an estimator based on the best linear projection, which is shown to be minimax rate-optimal for both exact recovery, as measured by the 0-1 loss, and partial recovery, as quantified by the normalized Kendall's tau distance. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior empirical performance of the proposed estimator over alternative methods. We demonstrate the methods using a synthetic metagenomics dataset of 45 closely related bacterial species and a real metagenomic dataset to compare the bacterial growth dynamics between the responders and the non-responders of the IBD patients after 8 weeks of treatment.

Optimal Permutation Recovery in Permuted Monotone Matrix Model

We report among a 30 year old male affected by synchronous bilateral germ cell tumors with history of unilateral cryptorchidism; the patient performed surgical treatment followed by adjuvant radiotherapy on paraortic and iliac lymph-nodes. Patients with synchronous tumors usually present at a higher stage disease, compared with those with unilateral testicular carcinoma; however the outcome remains excellent.

/pdf/synchronous-bilateral-testicular-germ-cell-tumour-case-3hunbkgr8f.pdf

Synchronous bilateral testicular germ cell tumour: case report and review of the literature.

Quantitative comparison of microbial composition from different populations is a fundamental task in various microbiome studies. We consider two-sample testing for microbial compositional data by leveraging phylogenetic information. Motivated by existing phylogenetic distances, we take a minimum-cost flow perspective to study such testing problems. We first show that multivariate analysis of variance with permutation using phylogenetic distances, one of the most commonly used methods in practice, is essentially a sum-of-squares type of test and has better power for dense alternatives. However, empirical evidence from real datasets suggests that the phylogenetic microbial composition difference between two populations is usually sparse. Motivated by this observation, we propose a new maximum type test, detector of active flow on a tree, and investigate its properties. We show that the proposed method is particularly powerful against sparse phylogenetic composition difference and enjoys certain optimality. The practical merit of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulation studies and an application to a human intestinal biopsy microbiome dataset on patients with ulcerative colitis.

T. Tony Cai

Papers

Genital condylomata are not the human papilloma virus male infection burden.

A possible negative effect of co-administered amlodipine and atorvastatin on semen volume and spermatozoa in men.

Optimal Permutation Recovery in Permuted Monotone Matrix Model

Synchronous bilateral testicular germ cell tumour: case report and review of the literature.

Hypothesis testing for phylogenetic composition: a minimum-cost flow perspective.