Preface1Difference Equations12Lag Operators253Stationary ARMA Processes434Forecasting725Maximum Likelihood Estimation1176Spectral Analysis1527Asymptotic Distribution Theory1808Linear Regression Models2009Linear Systems of Simultaneous Equations23310Covariance-Stationary Vector Processes25711Vector Autoregressions29112Bayesian Analysis35113The Kalman Filter37214Generalized Method of Moments40915Models of Nonstationary Time Series43516Processes with Deterministic Time Trends45417Univariate Processes with Unit Roots47518Unit Roots in Multivariate Time Series54419Cointegration57120Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Cointegrated Systems63021Time Series Models of Heteroskedasticity65722Modeling Time Series with Changes in Regime677A Mathematical Review704B Statistical Tables751C Answers to Selected Exercises769D Greek Letters and Mathematical Symbols Used in the Text786Author Index789Subject Index792

https://sisis.rz.htw-berlin.de/inh2007/12357004.pdf

Time series analysis

This chapter suggests that delinquency conceals two distinct categories of individuals, each with a unique natural history and etiology: A small group engages in antisocial behavior of one sort or another at every life stage, whereas a larger group is antisocial only during adolescence. According to the theory of life-course-persistent antisocial behavior, children's neuropsychological problems interact cumulatively with their criminogenic environments across development, culminating m a pathological personality. According to the theory of adolescence-limited antisocial behavior, a contemporary maturity gap encourages teens to mimic antisocial behavior in ways that are normative and adjustive. There are marked individual differences in the stability of antisocial behavior. The chapter reviews the mysterious relationship between age and antisocial behavior. Some youths who refrain from antisocial behavior may, for some reason, not sense the maturity gap and therefore lack the hypothesized motivation for experimenting with crime.

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Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy.

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

This 1966 paperback edition of a publication which first appeared in 1963 has by now been widely reviewed as a worthy contribution to the sociological study of deviant behavior. Its current appearance as a paperback is a testimonial both to the quality of the work and to the prominence of deviant behavior in this generation. In general the author places deviance in perspective, identifies types of deviant behavior, considers the role of rule makers and enforcers, and some of the problems in studying deviance. In addition, he develops a sequential model of deviance relying on the concept of career, a concept originally developed in studies of occupations. In his study of a particular kind of deviance, the use of marihuana, the author posits and tests systematically an hypothesis about the genesis of marihuana use for pleasure. The hypothesis traces the sequence of changes in individual attitude

Outsiders Studies in the Sociology of Deviance.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides access to information on a variety of topics related to the environment and strives to inform citizens of health risks. The EPA also has an extensive library network that consists of 26 libraries throughout the United States, which provide access to a plethora of information to EPA employees, scientists, and researchers. The EPA implemented a reorganization project to digitize their materials so they would be more accessible to a wider range of users, but this plan was drastically accelerated when the EPA was threatened with a budget cut. It chose to close and reduce the hours and services of some of their libraries. As a result, the agency was accused of denying users the “right to know” by making information unavailable, not providing an adequate strategic plan, and discarding vital materials. This case study explores the background of the digitization project, the practices implemented, and the critiques of the project.

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The Environmental Protection Agency

The unemployment/crime rate relationship (U-C) has been described recently as “inconsistent,” “insignificant,” and “weak.” Prior assessments of the U-C relationship have used no more than 18 U-C studies, and no more than 7 with 1970s data. In this paper, I review the findings of 63 U-C studies, 40 of which involve data from the 1970s when unemployment rose dramatically. My analysis shows the conditional nature of the U-C relationship. Property crimes, 1970s data, and sub-national levels of aggregation produce consistently positive and frequently significant U-C results. I discuss the implications of these results and argue that it is premature to abandon “this now well-plowed terrain” and suggest potentially fruitful paths for future studies of the U-C relationship.

Rates of Crime and Unemployment: An Analysis of Aggregate Research Evidence

This paper assesses whether support for harsh punitive policies toward crime is related to the racial typification of crime for a national random sample of households (N=885), surveyed in 2002. Results from OLS regression show that the racial typification of crime is a significant predictor of punitiveness, independent of the influence of racial prejudice, conservatism, crime salience, southern residence and other factors. This relationship is shown to be concentrated among whites who are either less prejudiced, not southern, conservative and for whom crime salience is low. The results broaden our understanding of the links between racial threat and social control, beyond those typically associated with racial composition of place. They also resonate important themes in what some have termed modern racism and what others have described as the politics of exclusion.

Racial typification of crime and support for punitive measures

Communication studies increasingly recognize the audience's critical role in receiving and interpreting media messages. Research into audience attributes that distinguish “media effects,” on the fear of crime (FEAR) has been limited—particularly as it relates to the reception of news. This study is based on a survey of 2,092 adults in Tallahassee, Florida at the height of a media driven “panic” about violent crime. Controlling for age, gender, race, victim experience and other perceptions of crime, the frequency of watching television news and listening to news on the radio is significantly related to FEAR. Reading newspapers and newsmagazines and recall of detail concerning specific highly publicized violent crimes are unrelated to FEAR. When audiences are disaggregated by gender, race, and a series of third attributes, television news consumption is significantly related to FEAR only for white females between the ages of thirty and fifty-four. This finding holds regardless of victim experience, income or perceived safety. Several explanations derived from previous research are applied to this finding. Both “resonance” and “substitution” have possible explanatory relevance, but the “affinity” of audience members with victims most often seen on television news may best account for the concentration of “media effects” among white women.

Crime, News and Fear of Crime: Toward an Identification of Audience Effects

A relationship between fear of crime and the racial composition of place has been widely assumed but seldom tested. Interviews conducted with a random sample of adults residing in a major state capital in the early months of 1994-at the height of a media-driven panic about violent crime-are used to test the proposition that as the percentage of blacks in one's neighborhood increases, so too will the fear of crime. We use objective and perceptual measures of racial composition, and we examine the effects of racial composition and minority status on fear of crime for black and white respondents. We distinguish between perceived safety or risk of victimization and fear, with the former used as an intervening variable in path models of fear of crime. Results show that actual racial composition has no consequence for the fear of crime when other relevant factors are controlled. Perceived racial composition is significant for fear among whites, but not among African-Americans. In particular, the perception that one is in the racial minority in one's neighborhood elevates fear among whites but not among blacks. All effects of perceived racial composition on fear are indirect and mediated by the perception of risk of crime.

Racial composition of neighborhood and fear of crime

Perceptual deterrence researchers have used simple crosssectional correlations between prior behavior and current perceptions to study the effect of legal threats on social control. Such designs are inadequate because they: (1) confuse the causal ordering of perceptions and behavior, and (2) fail to take into account other inhibitory factors in an explicit causal model. In an analysis of panel data, the methodological simplicity of earlier studies is shown to have led researchers to reach erroneous conclusions. Our data suggest that past studies report an experiential effect, not a deterrent effect, and that the effect of perceived sanctions on criminal involvement is minimal once social definitional factors (moral commitment, informal sanctions) are controlled.

Ted Chiricos

Papers

Rates of Crime and Unemployment: An Analysis of Aggregate Research Evidence

Racial typification of crime and support for punitive measures

Crime, News and Fear of Crime: Toward an Identification of Audience Effects

Racial composition of neighborhood and fear of crime

Perceived risk and social control: Do sanctions really deter?