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Showing papers in "Criminology in 1997"


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a theory that explains how levels of crime and other forms of social deviance in communities affect police action is proposed to understand how police behavior varies across physical space and how crime patterns develop and are sustained in local communities.
Abstract: The recent renaissance of ecological research in criminology has brought with it a renewed interest in the relationship between crime and social control in local communities. While several researchers have noted that the police are a critical part of the community crime-control puzzle, there is very little research and no theory that addresses variation in police behavior across physical space. In an attempt to further understand police operations in local communities, this article offers a theory that explains how levels of crime and other forms of social deviance in communities affect police action. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of the theory for understanding how police behavior varies across physical space and how crime patterns develop and are sustained in local communities.

601 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the effect of frequent and infrequent social interaction on the rates of three serious crimes across 60 urban neighborhoods and found that getting together once a year or more with neighbors has the most consistent and generally strongest effect.
Abstract: The social disorganization perspective assumes that social interaction among neighbors is a central element in the control of community crime. Moreover, social interaction among neighbors that occurs frequently, such as every day, is assumed to be most effective. This analysis tests that assumption by exploring the consequences of frequent and infrequent interaction. I construct 10 alternative measures of social interaction and separately examine the effect of each on the rates of three serious crimes across 60 urban neighborhoods. Findings suggest that type of interaction matters. Getting together once a year or more with neighbors has the most consistent and generally strongest effect on burglary, motor vehicle thejl, and robbery. Further this form of interaction mediates a significant proportion of the effect of ecological characteristics on community crime. Implications for community crime research are discussed. Current social disorganization research is built on the notion that welldeveloped, local network structures reduce crime. This formulation is grounded in the systemic model of community organization, which views the local community “as a complex system of friendship and kinship networks and formal and informal associational ties rooted in family life and

528 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of low self-control on crime and analogous behaviors were assessed by using two distinct measures of self control, an attitudinal measure and the analogous/behavior scale, and it was shown that both measures have effects on crime, even when controlling for a range of social factors.
Abstract: Gottfredson and Hirschi's recently introduced general theory of crime has received considerable empirical support. Researchers have found that low self-control, the general theory's core concept, is related to lawbreaking and to deviant behaviors considered by Gottfredson and Hirschi to be “analogous” to crime. In this article, we extend this research by assessing the effects of low self-control on crime and analogous behaviors and by using two distinct measures of self-control, an attitudinal measure and the analogous/behavior scale. Thus, following Gottfredson and Hirschi, we use analogous imprudent behaviors as outcomes of low self-control and as indicators of low self-control's effects on crime. We also examine an important but thus far neglected part of the theory: the claim that low self-control has effects not only on crime but also on life chances, life quality, and other social consequences. Consistent with the general theory, we found that both measures of self-control, attitudinal and behavioral, have effects on crime, even when controlling for a range of social factors. Further, the analysis revealed general support for the theory's prediction of negative relationships between low self-control and social consequences other than crime—life outcomes and quality of life.

424 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the effects of perceived racial composition and minority status on fear of crime for black and white respondents were examined. But the results showed that actual racial composition has no consequence for the fear when other relevant factors are controlled.
Abstract: A relationship between fear of crime and the racial composition of place has been widely assumed but seldom tested. Interviews conducted with a random sample of adults residing in a major state capital in the early months of 1994-at the height of a media-driven panic about violent crime-are used to test the proposition that as the percentage of blacks in one's neighborhood increases, so too will the fear of crime. We use objective and perceptual measures of racial composition, and we examine the effects of racial composition and minority status on fear of crime for black and white respondents. We distinguish between perceived safety or risk of victimization and fear, with the former used as an intervening variable in path models of fear of crime. Results show that actual racial composition has no consequence for the fear of crime when other relevant factors are controlled. Perceived racial composition is significant for fear among whites, but not among African-Americans. In particular, the perception that one is in the racial minority in one's neighborhood elevates fear among whites but not among blacks. All effects of perceived racial composition on fear are indirect and mediated by the perception of risk of crime.

299 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper examined the familial transmission of criminal convictions in families in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development and found that criminal convictions were highly familial because convictions in a parent increased the risk of conviction in a child.
Abstract: This article examines the familial transmission of criminal convictions in families in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development Our main analyses focus on the 344 families in the Cambridge Study with two or more children Criminal convictions were highly familial because convictions in a parent increased the risk of convictions in a child Correlations between siblings were stronger in same-sex siblings (45 to 50) than in opposite-sex ones (27) Sibling correlations did not vary by birth order Convictions of mothers and father correlated 55 Parent-child correlations were about the same as within-generation correlations between siblings LISREL models were used to assess whether the effect of parental convictions on child convictions was direct or mediated through the quality of the family environment (ie, supervision child rearing, and family size) The best fitting LISREL models suggested a direct effect of parental convictions on child convictions, without any mediation by family environment These data on fill biological siblings, however, did not permit separate estimation of family environmental versus genetic effects One environmental effect appeared, however—a socialization effect among siblings; in families with three sons, there appeared to be mutual influence of one sibling on another Also, regression models based on the boys suggested that family environmental variables did add to parental criminality

225 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used longitudinal data spanning from age 5 to age 18 for the male subjects in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study to test competing hypotheses derived from Gottfredson and Hirschis (1990) general theory and Moffitt's (1993a) developmental theory of antisocial behavior.
Abstract: We tested competing hypotheses derived from Gottfredson and Hirschis (1990) general theory and Moffitt's (1993a) developmental theory of antisocial behavior. The developmental theory argues that different factors give rise to antisocial behavior at different points in the life course. In contrast, the general theory maintains that the factor underlying antisocial behavior (i.e., criminal propensity) is the same at all ages. To test these competing predictions, we used longitudinal data spanning from age 5 to age 18 for the male subjects in the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study. Using reports from three sources (parents, teachers, and the boys themselves), we estimated second-order confirmatory factor models of antisocial behavior. These models provided consistent support for the developmental theory, showing that separate latent factors underlie childhood and adolescent antisocial behavior. Moreover, we found that these childhood and adolescent factors related in ways predicted by Moffitt's developmental theory to four correlates of antisocial behavior: Childhood antisocial behavior was related more strongly than adolescent antisocial behavior to low verbal ability, by per activity, and negative/impulsive personality, whereas adolescent antisocial behavior was related more strongly than childhood antisocial behavior to peer delinquency. The two underlying latent factors also showed the predicted differential relations to later criminal convictions: Childhood antisocial behavior was significantly more strongly associated with convictions for violence, while adolescent antisocial behavior was significantly more strongly associated with convictions for nonviolent offenses.

214 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined whether the complexity of a developmental theory of crime is preferable to the more parsimonious general/static theory of Gottfredson and Hirschi, and found that the evidence is not faithful to either a pure static/general model or a pure developmental model of crime.
Abstract: General and developmental theories take very different approaches to the study of crime. General theories, like Gottfredson and Hirschi's recent theory of self-control, assume that crime can be explained with reference to a single or very limited set of explanatory factors. In addition, some general theories, like Gottfredson and Hirschi's, adopt a very static approach to causality. They presume that prior offending has no causal effect on current offending once time-stable criminal propensity is controlled, and they assume that the relationship between changes in life events and changes in offending are spurious. Recent developmental theories, like those proposed by Moffitt and Patterson, stand in stark contrast to Gottfredson and Hirschi's theory. These developmental theories are far more complex because they relax the assumption of general causality and adopt a more dynamic position about the relationship between changes in life circumstances and changes in crime. In this article we examine whether the added complexity of a developmental theory of crime is preferable to the more parsimonious general/static theory of Gottfredson and Hirschi. We find that the evidence is not faithful to either a pure static/general model or a pure developmental model of crime. Our findings appeal to a theoretical middle ground that assumes that pathways to crime are more similar than different and that allows for a causal effect of past offending and life experiences on future criminality. When viewed in the context of previous studies that have assessed offending over the life course, our results suggest that further theoretical development can profit from studying issues of measurement and sample composition.

209 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper used survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory and found that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first-time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest.
Abstract: This study uses survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory. It examines the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest, generally and under various conditions. Results suggest that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first-time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest. However, for arrestees with few ties and for experienced offenders, longer incarceration predicts longer time until rearrest.

161 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined the influence of social altruism on the level of crime for a sample of U.S. cities and found that the ratio of contributions to the United Way to aggregate city income, a behavioral approximation of the cultural value of altruism, is inversely related to property and violent crime rates.
Abstract: Drawing on the theoretical statements of Braithwaite (1989), Cullen (1994), Messner and Rosenfeld (1994), this research examines the influence of social altruism on the level of crime for a sample of U.S. cities. The multivariate analyses clearly indicate that the ratio of contributions to the United Way to aggregate city income, a behavioral approximation of the cultural value of altruism, is inversely related to property and violent crime rates. The implications of these findings for the reduction of crime are discussed.

151 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Findings indicate that race and sex do play a role in shaping officers’ perceptions of the work environment, that these differences between groups are not completely accounted for by job or institutional characteristics and do not attenuate over time, and that there are factors that mediate the relationship betweenRace and sex and workplace perceptions.
Abstract: This article examines the relationship between race and sex and perceptions of the work environment among correctional officers. It addresses four central questions: (1) Are there race and sex differences among correctional officers in their perceptions of the work environment? (2) Do characteristics of the job and the institutions in which officers work account for these differences? (3) Do these differences attenuate over time? (4) Are there factors that mediate the relationship between race and sex and perceptions of the work environment? These issues are explored using data drawn from the correctional officer sub-sample (N= 2,979) of the 1992 administration of the Prison Social Climate Survey. Findings indicate that race and sex do play a role in shaping officers’ perceptions of the work environment, that these differences between groups are not completely accounted for by job or institutional characteristics and do not attenuate over time, and that there are factors that mediate the relationship between race and sex and workplace perceptions. Among minority male officers, greater efficacy in working with inmates appears to be an important factor in creating lower levels of job stress, while white female officers’ higher levels of overall job satisfaction are accounted for largely by a more positive evaluation of the quality of supervision.

147 citations


Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the limitations of using call-for-service (CFS) records to measure crime at the address, neighborhood, and city level and pointed out several types of error in dispatch records.
Abstract: Several recent studies have used records of calls-for-service (CFS) to police 911 centers to measure crime at the address, neighborhood, and city level. This article examines the limitations of this “new” indicator of crime. After pointing out several types of error in dispatch records, we use data from an observational study of policing in 60 neighborhoods to examine empirically how these errors might bias CFS-based crime counts and discuss the consequences of such bias. We conclude with suggestions for future research on the validity of CFS as an indicator of crime.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article found a positive association between employment and some forms of delinquency, especially alcohol and drug use, and the remaining employment effect is explained by exposure to delinquent peers by exposing adolescents to a wider network of peers, including delinquent peers.
Abstract: Employment is often thought to discourage participation in crime, but self-report data from juveniles consistently disclose a positive correlation between employment and delinquency. This analysis tests three possible explanations for that correlation. The first is that differences in levels of delinquency between workers and nonworkers exist prior to employment. The second holds that working increases independence from parents, thereby reducing the controlling effect of parental influence. The third explanation, drawing on Sutherland's theory of differential association, is that employment increases delinquent behavior by exposing adolescents to a wider network of peers, including delinquent peers. Analysis of data from waves 1, 2, and 3 of the National Youth Survey reveals a positive association between employment and some forms of delinquency, especially alcohol and drug use. Selection bias explains much, but not all, of the association. Although no support is found for the parental influence explanation, the remaining employment effect is explained by exposure to delinquent peers.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors examined the role familial, school, labor market, and street factors play in the criminality of 200 homeless male street youths and found that criminal behavior is influenced by such immediate factors as homelessness, drug and alcohol use, and criminal peers who engage in illegal activities.
Abstract: This research examines the role familial, school, labor market, and street factors play in the criminality of 200 homeless male street youths. Of particular interest is the way these youths interpret their labor market experiences and how together these experiences and interpretations influence criminal behavior. Findings reveal that familial and school factors have minimal influence on current criminal behavior. Instead, criminal behavior is influenced by such immediate factors as homelessness, drug and alcohol use, and criminal peers who engage in illegal activities. Further, criminal behavior is influenced by a lack of income, job experiences, and perceptions of a blocked opportunity structure. While labor market conditions and reactions to those conditions have some effect on crime, the findings also suggest that lengthy unemployment, job experiences, and a lack of income work in tandem with anger and external attributions to increase street youths' criminal activities.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article found that the closer the ties between the offender and victim in a homicide, the greater the ensuing guilt and the greater likelihood of suicide, and a multivariate logistic regression analysis largely confirms the hypothesis.
Abstract: Homicide followed by suicide has been a neglected area in criminological theory and research. The work that exists is marked by a series of methodological limitations, such as small samples and lack of systematic multivariate analysis. This study tests the thesis that the closer the ties between the offender and victim in a homicide, the greater the ensuing guilt and the greater the likelihood of suicide. Data on 16,245 homicides in Chicago are analyzed. A multivariate logistic regression analysis largely confirms the hypothesis. Controlling for sociodemographic variables, killing an ex-spouse/lover increased the risk of suicide the most, 12.68 times. The odds of suicide are increased 10.28 times for killing a child, 8.00 times for killing a spouse, 6.11 times for killing a girlfriend or boyfriend, and 1.88 times for killing a friend. The act of homicide-suicide is conceptualized as stemming from a frustrated intimate relationship and a blend of self- and other-blame in one's attribution style.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This paper found that white males are significantly more likely than blacks to express violent tendencies in defensive situations and that there is no significant difference between white and black males in offensive situations, ceteris paribus.
Abstract: We use data from the General Social Survey (1983 to 1991) to test Wolfgang and Ferracuti's hypothesis that violent values are widespread among African-Americans. Contrary to the expectations of the black subculture of violence thesis, our analyses indicate that white males are significantly more likely than blacks to express violent tendencies in defensive situations and that there is no significant difference between white and black males in offensive situations, ceteris paribus. Thus, we have rejected, within the limitations of our data, the hypothesis that a unique subculture of violence exists among the general population of African-Americans in the United States. (Abstract Adapted from Source: Criminology, 1997. Copyright © 1997 by the American Society of Criminology) Subculture of Violence Theory African American Offender African American Violence African American Adult African American Juvenile Adult Offender Adult Violence Juvenile Offender Juvenile Violence Black-White Comparison Caucasian Adult Caucasian Juvenile Caucasian Offender Caucasian Violence Violence Causes Violence Incidence and Prevalence Violence Rates 07-06

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article found that gender and childhood socialization into a gun culture are significantly related to protective and general (or ''sport'') firearm possession, while only protective gun ownership appears to be linked to crime-related factors.
Abstract: Based on a survey of 539 residents of Cincinnati, this study assesses various explanations of gun ownership. The analysis reveals that gender and childhood socialization into a gun culture are significantly related to protective and general (or ''sport'') firearm possession. In contrast, only protective gun ownership appears to be linked to crime-related factors. Conservative crime ideology and concern about the relative level of crime in one's neighborhood increase armament for defensive purposes, while informal collective security-the belief that neighbors will provide assistance against criminal victimization-reduces protective gun ownership.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article analyzed the response of the Chester, Pennsylvania, police to 392 consecutively reported felony-grade assaults by persons whose identities were known to victims and police and concluded that the practices and results reported by research conducted in progressive police jurisdictions that volunteer to participate in studies of police response to violence against women may not be generalizable to the great majority of U.S. police agencies.
Abstract: Recent studies of police response to violence in which men attack women with whom they have a history of shared intimacy have not addressed the issue that inspired research in the first place: the “leniency thesis” that police treat men who beat their spouses less punitively than other violent offenders. In addition, research examining the deterrent effects of various police treatments of misdemeanor domestic violence is not responsive to complaints that abused women are denied protection of law when they have been victims of serious, felony-grade, abuse by their spouses. This research analyzes the response of the Chester, Pennsylvania, police to 392 consecutively reported felony-grade assaults by persons whose identities were known to victims and police. Results confirm the leniency thesis. Tabular analysis demonstrates that arrests occurred in 13% of male-on-female spousal assaults and 28% of other assaults. Logit analysis indicates that this difference in police response is not attributable to other variables that might be expected to result in differential treatment. We conclude that the practices and results reported by research conducted in progressive police jurisdictions that volunteer to participate in studies of police response to violence against women may not be generalizable to the great majority of U.S. police agencies that have not welcomed such study.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A joint law enforcement-social services approach to reduce the incidence of repeat domestic violence in New York City suggests that the interventions increased citizens’ confidence in the ability of the police to handle domestic situations.
Abstract: Recent British work has focused attention on preventing repeat victimization as part of an overall crime prevention strategy. Because domestic violence victims are among those most likely to suffer multiple victimizations, they are logical candidates for programs targeted at reducing repeat victimization. This article reports on a joint law enforcement-social services approach to reduce the incidence of repeat domestic violence. The research design randomly assigned households reporting domestic incidents within two public housing police service areas in New York to receive or not receive a follow-up to the initial patrol response. (The follow-up visit was conducted by a police officer and a social worker.) In addition, housing projects in the same area were randomly assigned to receive or not receive public education about domestic violence. Neither treatment produced a reduction in violence. However, households in projects that had received public education and households that received the follow-up visits were both more likely to report new violence to the police than households that did not receive the treatments. Moreover, the effect of the follow-up visit was most pronounced among households with more serious histories of violence. The results suggest that the interventions increased citizens’ confidence in the ability of the police to handle domestic situations.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Using 1990 data for 222 metropolitan areas, the authors extended the traditional variables examined in models of homicide and used regression analysis to test the viability of three alternative theories that may explain high rates of African-American homicide victimization.
Abstract: Using 1990 data for 222 metropolitan areas, this study extends the traditional variables examined in models of homicide and uses regression analysis to test the viability of three alternative theories that may explain high rates of African-American homicide victimization. The first approach examines the extent to which weak forms of social control have contributed to high homicide rates. The second approach tests the notion that discrimination and inequality have increased levels of absolute and relative deprivation for blacks, which in turn engender frustration and contribute to higher levels of violence. The third approach posits that engagement in violent activity may be a rational act for young African-American males faced with the reality of highly limited economic opportunities. While all three approaches contribute to explaining high African-American homicide, this study shows the greatest support for the social control explanation.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that it may be misleading to draw inferences about individuals from the aggregated decay function because it conceals individual variations in ranges of operation, and they show that even when individual criminals increase their crime rate with increasing distance, a distance-decay function still emerges at the aggregate level.
Abstract: The distance-decay function suggests a spatial pattern of criminal activity whereby most crimes are committed nearer rather than farther from the criminals' own homes. Presumably, the farther away the target, the lower the chances of crimes. The reason usually offered for this general pattern is an individual one: The costs to the criminal in terms of time, energy, and money increases with distance. We contend that it may be misleading to draw inferences about individuals from the aggregated decay function because it conceals individual variations in ranges of operation. This argument is supported by data randomly generated by the computer that show that even when individual criminals increase their crime rate with increasing distance, a distance-decay function still emerges at the aggregate level. This is not to say that an individual-level distance-decay function does not exist, only that it must be demonstrated by data at the individual level because distance-decay effects can characterize aggregate behavior even in the absence of individual distance decay.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that a critical factor in the decline of lethal conflict among social elites is the increased availability of legal means of handling conflict, and since a focus on modern societies and their developed legal systems yields a limited and even distorted empirical picture of lethal violence, criminologists should strive to formulate theories that are cross-cultural and historical in scope.
Abstract: Criminological research consistently shows that interpersonal homicide is largely confined to low-status people. Yet, anthropological and historical materials reveal that in earlier and simpler societies homicide was found throughout the status hierarchy. Using theory developed by Donald Black, I argue that a critical factor in the decline of lethal conflict among social elites is the increased availability of legal means of handling conflict. An implication is that since a focus on modern societies and their developed legal systems yields a limited and even distorted empirical picture of lethal violence, criminologists should strive to formulate theories that are cross-cultural and historical in scope.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is shown that while gene-based evolutionary theories open make predictions similar to strictly environmental theories, they also lead to unique hypotheses, several of which have at least some support.
Abstract: In the past 20 years, several theories of criminal (and antisocial) behavior have been proposed from an evolutionary perspective, some of which specifically stipulate that people vary in their genetic dispositions toward criminality. It is these theories, herein called gene-based evolutionary theories, that are the focus of this article. Two categories of gene-based evolutionary theories are described. One category is crime specific, pertaining to the offenses of rape, spousal assault/murder, and child abuse neglect. The second category consists of two general theories of criminal and antisocial behavior: the cheater (or cad vs. dad) theory, and the r/K theory. In addition to assuming that genes contribute to variation in criminal (and antisocial) behavior, all five of these theories assume that natural selection has acted on human populations to open up reproductive niches for individuals and groups who victimize others. While the theories are still far too new to have been fully tested, we derive some of the most obvious hypotheses from each theory and explore the relevant empirical evidence. We show that while gene-based evolutionary theories open make predictions similar to strictly environmental theories, they also lead to unique hypotheses, several of which have at least some support.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explain how criminal behavior is maintained through a process of nonsocial reinforcement, and show that some persons find criminal behavior particularly rewarding and that the experience of committing nonviolent and particularly, violent crime is intrinsically rewarding and tends to reinforce such behavior among habitual criminals.
Abstract: Drawing on a diverse literature, we explain how criminal behavior is maintained through a process of nonsocial reinforcement, and show that some persons find criminal behavior particularly rewarding. We test our assumptions using surveys of 295 incarcerated adult felons and 150 male college students and intensive focus groups with 40 habitual offenders currently serving time. Results suggest that the experience of committing nonviolent and, particularly, violent crime is intrinsically rewarding and tends to reinforce such behavior among habitual criminals. The endogenous rewards identified center on (1) the neurophysiological high such acts produce and (2) the symbolic meaning of the behavior as it relates to self-concept and identity formation. Findings from the surveys and the focus groups suggest that habitual criminality is sustained partly through the positive sensations (physiological and psychological) those crimes activate within the offender and that those sensations are instrumental in the maintenance and reinforcement of criminal careers. Based on what is known in the literature and what has been learned from our research, it seems that an effective way of integrating this knowledge lies in the direction of a nonsocial reinforcement arm of learning theory.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined variance in the sex ratio of intimate killing (SROK) across U.S. cities, focusing on the influence that varying degrees of gendered economic equality have on the SROK.
Abstract: This study examines variance in the sex ratio of intimate killing (SROK) across U.S. cities. The research primarily focuses on the influence that varying degrees of gendered economic equality have on the SROK. Also, we examine this relationship in economic and regional/cultural contexts. The results of OLS regression analyses reveal a significant negative influence of female economic equality (as measured by the sex ratios of employment) on the SROK. In addition, we find that this influence is contingent on general economic well-being and more traditional cultural orientations to gender roles. Overall, the findings clearly indicate that variation in the SROK is related to the structural features of communities. Theoretical implications are discussed and directions for future research suggested.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provided an approach for estimating the mean values of individual offending frequency (λ) for diverse subsets of the total offender population, with particular emphasis on subsets generated by filtering through various stages of the criminal justice system.
Abstract: In the public debate over incarceration policy, there is considerable disagreement about what value of individual offending frequency (λ) is appropriate to use in estimating incapacitative effects. This article provides an approach for estimating the mean values of λ for diverse subsets of the total offender population, with particular emphasis on subsets generated by filtering through various stages of the criminal justice system. Sharp differences in offending frequency are displayed between robbery and burglary inmates, across three states, and particularly between resident inmates and free, active offenders. Free offenders average 1 to 3 robberies and 2 to 4 burglaries per year, while resident inmates have λ values 10 to 50 times higher. Differences result from the underlying levels of criminal activity and the sanction Levels that offenders face. A highly heterogeneous distribution of offending frequency in the total population of offenders combines with relatively Low imprisonment levels to lead to substantial selectivity of high-λ offenders among resident inmates and a correspondingly low mean value of λ among those offenders who remain free. These results have important implications for estimating incapacitative effects of an increase in incarceration, since the additional inmates will be drawn from free offenders whose mean λ is at least an order of magnitude Lower than that of the current inmate population.

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Examination of levels and predictors of recidivism in Malta approximate those observed in societies that are socially and culturally quite different, and the role of social institutions in reintegrating offenders into society may be more complex than commonly believed.
Abstract: Research on recidivism has been confined primarily to a few highly industrialized Western nations (e.g., United States, Great Britain, Canada, and Australia) in which the data and resources needed for such research are readily available. The restriction of recidivism research to such a small number of nations begs the question: Do these results reflect patterns of offending and products of the criminal justice systems unique to these nations, or do they describe patterns of recidivism across a much wider range of social and cultural contexts? In this study I extend the scope of recidivism research by examining levels and patterns of recidivism in the Republic of Malta, a small Mediterranean island that differs considerably from the typical context in which recidivism is studied. Specifically, I examine the likelihood of recidivism among persons released from Malta's only prison between 1976 and 1994. In addition, I examine factors shown in previous research to be strong predictors of recidivism to assess their value as predictors of recidivism among Maltese prisoners. Proportional hazards regression models reveal that levels and predictors of recidivism in Malta approximate those observed in societies that are socially and culturally quite different. The findings suggest that the role of social institutions in reintegrating offenders into society may be more complex than commonly believed.