THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

応用水文 = Applied hydrology

Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event’. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only consider one driver and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, as the processes that cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally dependent. Here we show how a better understanding of compound events may improve projections of potential high-impact events, and can provide a bridge between climate scientists, engineers, social scientists, impact modellers and decision-makers, who need to work closely together to understand these complex events.

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Future climate risk from compound events

1. Health care is a human right. 2. The care of the individual is at the center of health care, but the whole system needs to work to improve the health of populations. 3. The health care system must treat illness, alleviate suffering and disability, and promote health. 4. Cooperation with each other, those served, and those in other sectors is essential for all who work in health care. 5. All who provide health care must work to improve it. 6. Do no harm.

https://www.journalacs.org/article/S1072-7515(00)00768-7/pdf

Is this a practical approach

Recent accelerated climate change has exacerbated existing environmental problems in the Mediterranean Basin that are caused by the combination of changes in land use, increasing pollution and declining biodiversity. For five broad and interconnected impact domains (water, ecosystems, food, health and security), current change and future scenarios consistently point to significant and increasing risks during the coming decades. Policies for the sustainable development of Mediterranean countries need to mitigate these risks and consider adaptation options, but currently lack adequate information — particularly for the most vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies, where fewer systematic observations schemes and impact models are based. A dedicated effort to synthesize existing scientific knowledge across disciplines is underway and aims to provide a better understanding of the combined risks posed.

/pdf/climate-change-and-interconnected-risks-to-sustainable-18gsp1lank.pdf

Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

Atmospheric origins of extreme rainfall in the UK: Where do storms really come from?

Assessing the risk of future flood events and the implications for flood risk in cities is an economically and socially costly problem. In this research, we assess the utility of documentary evidence of past flood events for contemporary flood risk assessments to reduce the uncertainty in flood frequency estimation due to the interpolation from short annual maximum series (AMS) records.The historical city of Bath, United Kingdom, developed in close relation to the River Avon, and evidence of flooding in the city of Bath can be traced back to Roman occupation. For this research a particularly rich record of historical evidence was chosen occurring from the 19th century onwards with flood marks on buildings through-out the city as well as documentary evidence in contemporary newspapers and technical reports. The earliest flood mark found in the city of Bath dates to 1823 with 15 more extreme floods after that marked as well. The extensive flooding in 1947 initiated work on what eventually became the present-day Bath flood protection scheme (BFS) which was implemented after the 1960 catalyst flood event.Using an existing one-dimensional hydraulic model representing the current hydraulic system of the River Avon in Bath, a historical survey of how the river and its management has changed over time was conducted. The model was developed using historical evidence (e.g. maps, flood marks, photographs, newspaper articles etc), surveyed river cross sections, recorded and design hydrographs from National datasets.The 1960 flood is reconstructed numerically using all available data, from flood marks to old surveyed river cross sections.&#160; The resulting hydraulic model is used to investigate the effect of the Bath Flood Defence Scheme. Sensitivity studies with different values for the roughness coefficient are also presented in order to assess the uncertainty on water levels during extreme events. Finally, the numerically reconstructed historical peak flood discharge is compared with the results obtained using a simple Manning equation approach to assess the two methods. This paper demonstrates how hydraulic modelling can be applied to historical data and offers considerable potential to further investigations in the improvement of design flood flows.

Reconstructing a hydraulic model for historic flood levels in the city of Bath, United Kingdom

Assessment of water resources system sustainability

With significant changes to flood frequency anticipated as a result of climate change it becomes important to investigate how global hydrological models process climate forcing data. Flood frequency distribution describes the relationship between flood peak magnitude and its return period, indicating the average period of time between exceedance of a certain flood magnitude. The steepness of the distribution (or of the growth curve) is a measure of the variability of the flood peak series. Analysis of variation in extreme rainfall-runoff processes between global hydrological models was undertaken by comparing the variability in extreme rainfall events of certain frequency in WATCH Forcing Data (WFD) with the resulting variability in flood events as predicted across the models GWAVA, JULES, and WaterGap. Analysis of propagation of climate model biases between global hydrological models JULES and WaterGap compared changes in predicted flood frequency growth curve steepness when applying baseline daily climate forcing simulated by the ECHAM5 climate model time series. The impact of climate change on the probabilistic behaviour of floods is assessed by considering the change in growth curve between the control run conditions and the future scenarios as predicted by ECHAM5-A2 driven time series. 

Spatial patterns of variation in extreme rainfall-runoff processes differ between models, particularly in regions of extreme climate, highlighting the importance of using more than one hydrological model. Flood statistics derived from simulations from two hydrological models run with the same forcing climate differ significantly, suggesting that the models are sensitive to different climate characteristics, or that they are calibrated with sub-optimal conditions. Simulated control climate might also have some characteristics different than those of historical observations. Climate change simulations indicate some general agreement between models in the emerging spatial pattern of future changes to flood variability across Europe; however, some distinct regional and sub-regional differences in magnitude of change and spatial pattern are evident. The results obtained in this research are promising, and should be extended to include a larger sample of hydrological and climate models, with more detailed investigation of hydrological model structure and validation of modelled values with observed flow series.

/pdf/assessment-of-flood-peak-simulations-by-global-hydrological-45a1zht133.pdf

Assessment of flood peak simulations by global hydrological models

Following a brief description of how the UK’s national flood estimation procedures have developed from the early 1970s to the present, the paper discusses criticisms and limitation of the current procedures, before, finally, suggesting areas where further research is needed to improve accuracy.

Thomas Kjeldsen

Papers

Atmospheric origins of extreme rainfall in the UK: Where do storms really come from?

Reconstructing a hydraulic model for historic flood levels in the city of Bath, United Kingdom

Assessment of water resources system sustainability

Assessment of flood peak simulations by global hydrological models

05 - the lessons learned from the feh improvements