世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/122776/1/gbd2016riskfactorscollaborators2017_3028.pdf

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND 

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

 METHODS 

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

 FINDINGS 

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

 INTERPRETATION 

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

 FUNDING 

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

ContextAs the epidemiology of infections with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) changes, accurate information on the scope and magnitude of MRSA infections in the US population is needed.ObjectivesTo describe the incidence and distribution of invasive MRSA disease in 9 US communities and to estimate the burden of invasive MRSA infections in the United States in 2005.Design and SettingActive, population-based surveillance for invasive MRSA in 9 sites participating in the Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs)/Emerging Infections Program Network from July 2004 through December 2005. Reports of MRSA were investigated and classified as either health care–associated (either hospital-onset or community-onset) or community-associated (patients without established health care risk factors for MRSA).Main Outcome MeasuresIncidence rates and estimated number of invasive MRSA infections and in-hospital deaths among patients with MRSA in the United States in 2005; interval estimates of incidence excluding 1 site that appeared to be an outlier with the highest incidence; molecular characterization of infecting strains.ResultsThere were 8987 observed cases of invasive MRSA reported during the surveillance period. Most MRSA infections were health care–associated: 5250 (58.4%) were community-onset infections, 2389 (26.6%) were hospital-onset infections; 1234 (13.7%) were community-associated infections, and 114 (1.3%) could not be classified. In 2005, the standardized incidence rate of invasive MRSA was 31.8 per 100 000 (interval estimate, 24.4-35.2). Incidence rates were highest among persons 65 years and older (127.7 per 100 000; interval estimate, 92.6-156.9), blacks (66.5 per 100 000; interval estimate, 43.5-63.1), and males (37.5 per 100 000; interval estimate, 26.8-39.5). There were 1598 in-hospital deaths among patients with MRSA infection during the surveillance period. In 2005, the standardized mortality rate was 6.3 per 100 000 (interval estimate, 3.3-7.5). Molecular testing identified strains historically associated with community-associated disease outbreaks recovered from cultures in both hospital-onset and community-onset health care–associated infections in all surveillance areas.ConclusionsInvasive MRSA infection affects certain populations disproportionately. It is a major public health problem primarily related to health care but no longer confined to intensive care units, acute care hospitals, or any health care institution.

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Invasive Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infections in the United States

The optimism of the early period of antimicrobial discovery has been tempered by the emergence of bacterial strains with resistance to these therapeutics. Today, clinically important bacteria are characterized not only by single drug resistance but also by multiple antibiotic resistance--the legacy of past decades of antimicrobial use and misuse. Drug resistance presents an ever-increasing global public health threat that involves all major microbial pathogens and antimicrobial drugs.

/pdf/antibacterial-resistance-worldwide-causes-challenges-and-1cbvr301rt.pdf

Antibacterial resistance worldwide: causes, challenges and responses.

Antimicrobial resistance and judicious antimicrobial use in Minnesota and the United States.

More than 10 000 alcohol-related driving fatalities occur each year. To identify ways of reinvigorating efforts to stem these tragic events, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration asked...

Eliminating Alcohol-Impaired Driving Fatalities: What Can Be Done?

Media reports frequently cite observational studies and meta-analyses to promote the reputed cardiovascular benefits of moderate alcohol consumption; however, it is unclear whether public opinion or drinking behavior align with these reports. We administered an anonymous, single-center, 35-question, cross-sectional survey among patients hospitalized for acute cardiac illnesses from June to September 2019, who were eligible for cardiac rehabilitation. We assessed patient opinions toward alcohol use, perceptions of alcohol's health impact, and role of media in forming these beliefs. We hypothesized that drinking habits are associated with beliefs about the health benefits of alcohol consumption. Of 300 patients approached, 290 completed the survey (97%). Most (69%) reported having heard moderate alcohol use is heart healthy from 1 or more sources including: TV (61%), family/friends (33%), newspapers (21%), and the internet (10%); although, only 19% reported believing these reports. In total, 12 patients (4%) reported intentionally increasing alcohol intake because of the reported beneficial health effects. There was a strong association between binge drinking and increasing alcohol used to improve cardiac health (odds ratio 8.8, 95% confidence interval 2.7, 29). Given the known cardiotoxic effects of alcohol, particularly in large doses, strategies aimed at population-based education regarding the unhealthy cardiovascular impact of alcohol use is needed, especially among binge drinkers. 

Relation of Patient's Opinion of Alcohol's Health Effects and Drinking Habits Among Hospitalized Patients With Cardiovascular Disease.

Community-Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in aR ural American Indian Community

The recent article by Miller et al1 reaffirms the risks associated with heavy episodic drinking among adolescents. However disturbing these findings, it is important to recognize some positive trends regarding alcohol use among teens. First, it should be emphasized that 55% of respondents indicated no alcohol consumption in the previous 30 days, and 16.1% had consumed alcohol but not at the binge-drinking level. Thus, the vast majority of teens had actually not engaged in high-risk alcohol consumption in the preceding month. That is very good news. Most importantly, the authors did not address recent substantial downward trends in heavy episodic drinking among teens. The Youth Risk Behavior Survey results from 1991–2005 demonstrated declines in heavy episodic drinking, and since 1997 the rates have decreased from 33.4% to 25.5%.2 These changes represent rather dramatic shifts among the population and mean that millions fewer teens have engaged in alcohol misuse since 1997. The authors state that short of enforcement of the minimum drinking age, little has been done over the years to reduce underage drinking. They also suggest a number of interventions that should be implemented to reduce underage drinking. I respectfully disagree with their assertions and admonitions. I think it is critical that researchers carefully study these positive trends and try to determine what factors have actually contributed to substantial reductions in youth binge drinking. A better understanding of the reasons behind these positive findings will eventually lead to evidence-based interventions and public policy. In the meantime, physicians caring for teens should be aware that a substantial minority of them ( 25%– 28%) have likely engaged in alcohol misuse in the preceding month. Screening, counseling, and appropriate referral are vital interventions that can be conducted in the office setting and will likely reduce future high-risk alcohol use among these patients. Perhaps as important, for alcohol users and nonusers alike, clinicians should strongly reinforce that the majority of American teens (71%–75%) chose not to use alcohol (or to use it minimally). Adolescents generally respond to pressure to engage in normative social behaviors; they just need to know what the normative behavior is.

Timothy S. Naimi

Papers

Antimicrobial resistance and judicious antimicrobial use in Minnesota and the United States.

Eliminating Alcohol-Impaired Driving Fatalities: What Can Be Done?

Relation of Patient's Opinion of Alcohol's Health Effects and Drinking Habits Among Hospitalized Patients With Cardiovascular Disease.

Community-Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in aR ural American Indian Community

Is the binge-drinking glass half full or half empty? Authors' reply