世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/122776/1/gbd2016riskfactorscollaborators2017_3028.pdf

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND 

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

 METHODS 

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

 FINDINGS 

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

 INTERPRETATION 

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

 FUNDING 

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

ContextAs the epidemiology of infections with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) changes, accurate information on the scope and magnitude of MRSA infections in the US population is needed.ObjectivesTo describe the incidence and distribution of invasive MRSA disease in 9 US communities and to estimate the burden of invasive MRSA infections in the United States in 2005.Design and SettingActive, population-based surveillance for invasive MRSA in 9 sites participating in the Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs)/Emerging Infections Program Network from July 2004 through December 2005. Reports of MRSA were investigated and classified as either health care–associated (either hospital-onset or community-onset) or community-associated (patients without established health care risk factors for MRSA).Main Outcome MeasuresIncidence rates and estimated number of invasive MRSA infections and in-hospital deaths among patients with MRSA in the United States in 2005; interval estimates of incidence excluding 1 site that appeared to be an outlier with the highest incidence; molecular characterization of infecting strains.ResultsThere were 8987 observed cases of invasive MRSA reported during the surveillance period. Most MRSA infections were health care–associated: 5250 (58.4%) were community-onset infections, 2389 (26.6%) were hospital-onset infections; 1234 (13.7%) were community-associated infections, and 114 (1.3%) could not be classified. In 2005, the standardized incidence rate of invasive MRSA was 31.8 per 100 000 (interval estimate, 24.4-35.2). Incidence rates were highest among persons 65 years and older (127.7 per 100 000; interval estimate, 92.6-156.9), blacks (66.5 per 100 000; interval estimate, 43.5-63.1), and males (37.5 per 100 000; interval estimate, 26.8-39.5). There were 1598 in-hospital deaths among patients with MRSA infection during the surveillance period. In 2005, the standardized mortality rate was 6.3 per 100 000 (interval estimate, 3.3-7.5). Molecular testing identified strains historically associated with community-associated disease outbreaks recovered from cultures in both hospital-onset and community-onset health care–associated infections in all surveillance areas.ConclusionsInvasive MRSA infection affects certain populations disproportionately. It is a major public health problem primarily related to health care but no longer confined to intensive care units, acute care hospitals, or any health care institution.

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Invasive Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infections in the United States

The optimism of the early period of antimicrobial discovery has been tempered by the emergence of bacterial strains with resistance to these therapeutics. Today, clinically important bacteria are characterized not only by single drug resistance but also by multiple antibiotic resistance--the legacy of past decades of antimicrobial use and misuse. Drug resistance presents an ever-increasing global public health threat that involves all major microbial pathogens and antimicrobial drugs.

/pdf/antibacterial-resistance-worldwide-causes-challenges-and-1cbvr301rt.pdf

Antibacterial resistance worldwide: causes, challenges and responses.

In response to Dr Turner, underage drinking remains common and dangerous. Alcohol is a leading preventable cause of death among young adults and contributes to the 3 leading causes of death among adolescents.1 In addition, youth drinking and binge drinking contribute to a number of social problems, including unintended pregnancy, violence, sexually transmitted infections, altered brain development, and subsequent alcohol problems in adulthood.2,3 Although rates of underage drinking have declined slightly among male high school students during the past decade, it is hard to take solace from our study when almost half of all US high school students drank alcohol during the previous 30 days and approximately two thirds of those individuals binge …

Is the Binge-Drinking Glass Half Full or Half Empty?: In Reply

Aims Alcohol policy effects on alcohol's harms due to others' drinking (AHTO) and contextual factors that may mediate such policy effects have been understudied. This study examines state binge drinking prevalence as a mediator of the relationship between state alcohol policy and socioeconomic environments and individual-level AHTO. Methods A nationally representative sample of US adults (N = 32,401; 13,873 males, 18,528 females) from the 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 National Alcohol Surveys and the 2015 National Alcohol's Harm to Others Survey, administered in telephone interviews and based on random digit dialed sampling, were linked with state-level Alcohol Policy Scale (APS) scores, binge drinking prevalence and socioeconomic status (SES) data. Three 12-month AHTO measures were family/marriage difficulties, assault or vandalism and riding with drunk driver or having traffic accident. Three-level mediation analyses were conducted, controlling for gender, race, education, marital status, family problem-drinking history and state policing rate. Results The effects of the APS on reduced risks for assault/vandalism and drinking-driving harms were significantly mediated by reduced state binge drinking prevalence. The APS had no direct or indirect effect on family/marital trouble. State SES had significant indirect effects on increased risks for assault/vandalism and driving-related harm through increased state binge drinking prevalence and a direct effect on reduced family/marital problems. Conclusions A more stringent alcohol policy environment could reduce assault/vandalism and driving-related harm due to another drinker by lowering state binge drinking rates. Alcohol policies may not be effective in reducing family problems caused by another drinker more prevalent in low-SES states.

State Alcohol Policies, Binge Drinking Prevalence, Socioeconomic Environments and Alcohol's Harms to Others: A Mediation Analysis.

Comment on Rehm: Alcohol, cohort studies and all-cause mortality: Where to from here?

ISFAR Doth Protest Too Much: Another Attempt From Industry Sympathizers to Marginalize Scientific Skepticism About Alcohol's Hypothesized Health Benefits?

Timothy S. Naimi

Papers

Is the Binge-Drinking Glass Half Full or Half Empty?: In Reply

State Alcohol Policies, Binge Drinking Prevalence, Socioeconomic Environments and Alcohol's Harms to Others: A Mediation Analysis.

Comment on Rehm: Alcohol, cohort studies and all-cause mortality: Where to from here?

ISFAR Doth Protest Too Much: Another Attempt From Industry Sympathizers to Marginalize Scientific Skepticism About Alcohol's Hypothesized Health Benefits?

Måttlig alkoholkonsumtion ger ingen positive hälsoeffekt: En kritisk forskningsanalys