Human Development Report 2001: making new technologies work for human development

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method

Facilitated modelling in operational research

Making forestry decisions with multiple criteria: A review and an assessment

In recent years, many countries have carried out foresight exercises to better exploit scientific and technological opportunities. Often, these exercises have sought to identify ‘critical’ or ‘key’ technologies or, more broadly, to establish research priorities. In this paper, we consider the potential of multicriteria decision-making methods in this kind of priority-determination and examine the limitations of these methods in the foresight context. We also provide results from a combined evaluation and foresight study where multicriteria methods were deployed to support the shaping of research and technology development activities in the Finnish forestry and forest industry. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multicriteria Methods for Technology Foresight

Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13-14, 2004

The preparation of research and technology development (RTD) programmes calls for the analysis of prospective technological advances and the consideration of "lessons learned" from earlier programs. In this paper, we report experiences from a pilot project in which an internet-based survey and five participatory workshops were organised in conjunction with a Finnish RTD program in telecommunications. At these workshops, leading representatives from industry and the research community were invited to report their experiences from a concluding RTD program and to address future research needs, whereby they were assisted by a group support system (GSS). The workshop process was well received, which suggests that the preparation of RTD efforts can benefit from the deployment of GSS tools in support of face-to-face discussions. To our knowledge, this is the first account on GSS use in the foresight context.

A group support system for foresight processes

Several methods for the processing of incomplete preference information in additive preference models have been proposed. Due to the lack of adequate decision aiding tools, however, only a few case studies have been reported so far. In this paper, we present PRIME Decisions, a decision aiding tool which supports the analysis of incomplete preference information with the PRIME method. PRIME Decisions also offers novel features such as decision rules and guided elicitation tours. The application of PRIME Decisions is illustrated with a case study on the valuation of a high-tech company.

/pdf/prime-decisions-an-interactive-tool-for-value-tree-analysis-hprhou9ufh.pdf

PRIME Decisions: An Interactive Tool for Value Tree Analysis

https://sal.aalto.fi/publications/pdf-files/msald.pdf

Tommi Gustafsson

Papers

Multicriteria Methods for Technology Foresight

Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13-14, 2004

A group support system for foresight processes

PRIME Decisions: An Interactive Tool for Value Tree Analysis

Prospective evaluation of a cluster program for Finnish forestry and forest industries