The identification of genetically homogeneous groups of individuals is a long standing issue in population genetics. A recent Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE allows the identification of such groups. However, the ability of this algorithm to detect the true number of clusters (K) in a sample of individuals when patterns of dispersal among populations are not homogeneous has not been tested. The goal of this study is to carry out such tests, using various dispersal scenarios from data generated with an individual-based model. We found that in most cases the estimated 'log probability of data' does not provide a correct estimation of the number of clusters, K. However, using an ad hoc statistic DeltaK based on the rate of change in the log probability of data between successive K values, we found that STRUCTURE accurately detects the uppermost hierarchical level of structure for the scenarios we tested. As might be expected, the results are sensitive to the type of genetic marker used (AFLP vs. microsatellite), the number of loci scored, the number of populations sampled, and the number of individuals typed in each sample.

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Detecting the number of clusters of individuals using the software STRUCTURE: a simulation study.

Statistical method for testing the neutral mutation hypothesis by DNA polymorphism.

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

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Ecological responses to recent climate change.

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

http://planet.uwc.ac.za/nisl/Biodiversity/Temporary%20Transfers/Biodiversity/Chapters/Info%20to%20use/Chapter%204/amphibian.pdf

The amphibian decline crisis: A watershed for conservation biology?

Amphibians and Reptiles

Amphibian breeding and climate

The ability to maintain small populations in quasi-natural settings is an issue of considerable importance in biodiversity conservation. The genetic structure of urban common frog (Rana temporaria) populations was determined by allozyme electrophoresis and used to evaluate the effects of restricted intersite migration. Despite the lack of any absolute barrier to movement between ponds, substantial genetic differentiation was found between sites separated by an average of only 2.3 km. Genetic distances between these town ponds correlated positively with geographical distances and were almost twice as great as those found between rural sites separated by an average of 41 km. Measures of genetic diversity and fitness were always lowest in the town, where the degree of subpopulation differentiation (FST = 0.388) was high. Population decline was not evident in the town, but molecular and fitness data indicated the presence of genetic drift and inbreeding depression. The long-term survival of artificially restricted populations, particularly of relatively sedentary species, may require molecular monitoring, if genetic diversity is not to be lost by chance when facets of the species niche prove to be poorly understood.

/pdf/genetic-substructuring-as-a-result-of-barriers-to-gene-flow-3n7jroaxaa.pdf

Genetic substructuring as a result of barriers to gene flow in urban Rana temporaria (common frog) populations: implications for biodiversity conservation

Trevor J. C. Beebee

Papers

Ecological responses to recent climate change.

The amphibian decline crisis: A watershed for conservation biology?

Amphibians and Reptiles

Amphibian breeding and climate

Genetic substructuring as a result of barriers to gene flow in urban Rana temporaria (common frog) populations: implications for biodiversity conservation