Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

On the truck dispatching problem

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.

Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks

Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on road networks, (2) non-linear temporal dynamics with changing road conditions and (3) inherent difficulty of long-term forecasting. To address these challenges, we propose to model the traffic flow as a diffusion process on a directed graph and introduce Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting that incorporates both spatial and temporal dependency in the traffic flow. Specifically, DCRNN captures the spatial dependency using bidirectional random walks on the graph, and the temporal dependency using the encoder-decoder architecture with scheduled sampling. We evaluate the framework on two real-world large scale road network traffic datasets and observe consistent improvement of 12% - 15% over state-of-the-art baselines.

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Diffusion Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network: Data-Driven Traffic Forecasting

Big data is becoming a research focus in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which can be seen in many projects around the world. Intelligent transportation systems will produce a large amount of data. The produced big data will have profound impacts on the design and application of intelligent transportation systems, which makes ITS safer, more efficient, and profitable. Studying big data analytics in ITS is a flourishing field. This paper first reviews the history and characteristics of big data and intelligent transportation systems. The framework of conducting big data analytics in ITS is discussed next, where the data source and collection methods, data analytics methods and platforms, and big data analytics application categories are summarized. Several case studies of big data analytics applications in intelligent transportation systems, including road traffic accidents analysis, road traffic flow prediction, public transportation service plan, personal travel route plan, rail transportation management and control, and assets maintenance are introduced. Finally, this paper discusses some open challenges of using big data analytics in ITS.

Big Data Analytics in Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Survey

Traffic forecasting is a vital part of intelligent transportation systems. It becomes particularly challenging due to short-term (e.g., accidents, constructions) and long-term (e.g., peak-hour, seasonal, weather) traffic patterns. While most of the previously proposed techniques focus on normal condition forecasting, a single framework for extreme condition traffic forecasting does not exist. To address this need, we propose to take a deep learning approach. We build a deep neural network based on long short term memory (LSTM) units. We apply Deep LSTM to forecast peak-hour traffic and manage to identify unique characteristics of the traffic data. We further improve the model for postaccident forecasting with Mixture Deep LSTM model. It jointly models the normal condition traffic and the pattern of accidents. We evaluate our model on a realworld large-scale traffic dataset in Los Angeles. When trained end-to-end with suitable regularization, our approach achieves 30%-50% improvement over baselines. We also demonstrate a novel technique to interpret the model with signal stimulation. We note interesting observations from the trained neural network.

Deep Learning: A Generic Approach for Extreme Condition Traffic Forecasting.

With the progress of mobile devices and wireless broadband, a new eMarket platform, termed spatial crowdsourcing is emerging, which enables workers (aka crowd) to perform a set of spatial tasks (i.e., tasks related to a geographical location and time) posted by a requester. In this paper, we study a version of the spatial crowd-sourcing problem in which the workers autonomously select their tasks, called the worker selected tasks (WST) mode. Towards this end, given a worker, and a set of tasks each of which is associated with a location and an expiration time, we aim to find a schedule for the worker that maximizes the number of performed tasks. We first prove that this problem is NP-hard. Subsequently, for small number of tasks, we propose two exact algorithms based on dynamic programming and branch-and-bound strategies. Since the exact algorithms cannot scale for large number of tasks and/or limited amount of resources on mobile platforms, we also propose approximation and progressive algorithms. We conducted a thorough experimental evaluation on both real-world and synthetic data to compare the performance and accuracy of our proposed approaches.

/pdf/maximizing-the-number-of-worker-s-self-selected-tasks-in-1lypn0vt42.pdf

Maximizing the number of worker's self-selected tasks in spatial crowdsourcing

For the first time, real-time high-fidelity spatiotemporal data on transportation networks of major cities have become available. This gold mine of data can be utilized to learn about traffic behavior at different times and locations, potentially resulting in major savings in time and fuel, the two important commodities of 21st century. As a first step towards the utilization of this data, in this paper, we study the real-world data collected from Los Angeles County transportation network in order to incorporate the data's intrinsic behavior into a time-series mining technique to enhance its accuracy for traffic prediction. In particular, we utilized the spatiotemporal behaviors of rush hours and events to perform a more accurate prediction of both short-term and long-term average speed on road-segments, even in the presence of infrequent events (e.g., accidents). Our result shows that taking historical rush-hour behavior we can improve the accuracy of traditional predictors by up to 67% and 78% in short-term and long-term predictions, respectively. Moreover, we can incorporate the impact of an accident to improve the prediction accuracy by up to 91%.

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Utilizing Real-World Transportation Data for Accurate Traffic Prediction

Real-time traffic prediction from high-fidelity spatiotemporal traffic sensor datasets is an important problem for intelligent transportation systems and sustainability. However, it is challenging due to the complex topological dependencies and high dynamism associated with changing road conditions. In this paper, we propose a Latent Space Model for Road Networks (LSM-RN) to address these challenges holistically. In particular, given a series of road network snapshots, we learn the attributes of vertices in latent spaces which capture both topological and temporal properties. As these latent attributes are time-dependent, they can estimate how traffic patterns form and evolve. In addition, we present an incremental online algorithm which sequentially and adaptively learns the latent attributes from the temporal graph changes. Our framework enables real-time traffic prediction by 1) exploiting real-time sensor readings to adjust/update the existing latent spaces, and 2) training as data arrives and making predictions on-the-fly. By conducting extensive experiments with a large volume of real-world traffic sensor data, we demonstrate the superiority of our framework for real-time traffic prediction on large road networks over competitors as well as baseline graph-based LSM's.

https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/2939672.2939860

Latent Space Model for Road Networks to Predict Time-Varying Traffic

Geospatial queries (GQ) have been used in a wide variety of applications such as decision support systems, profile-based marketing, bioinformatics and GIS. Most of the existing query-answering approaches assume centralized processing on a single machine although GQs are intrinsically parallelizable. There are some approaches that have been designed for parallel databases and cluster systems, however, these only apply to the systems with limited parallel processing capability, far from that of the cloud-based platforms. In this paper, we study the problem of parallel geos patial query processing with the MapReduce programming model. Our proposed approach creates a spatial index, Voronoi diagram, for given data points in 2D space and enables efficient processing of a wide range of GQs. We evaluated the performance of our proposed techniques and correspondingly compared them with their closest related work while varying the number of employed nodes.

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Ugur Demiryurek

Papers

Deep Learning: A Generic Approach for Extreme Condition Traffic Forecasting.

Maximizing the number of worker's self-selected tasks in spatial crowdsourcing

Utilizing Real-World Transportation Data for Accurate Traffic Prediction

Latent Space Model for Road Networks to Predict Time-Varying Traffic

Voronoi-Based Geospatial Query Processing with MapReduce