A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

Building on our earlier research (Case and Deaton 2015), we find that mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century continued to climb through 2015. Additional increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related liver mortality—particularly among those with a high school degree or less—are responsible for an overall increase in all-cause mortality among whites. We find marked differences in mortality by race and education, with mortality among white non-Hispanics (males and females) rising for those without a college degree, and falling for those with a college degree. In contrast, mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics have continued to fall, irrespective of educational attainment. Mortality rates in comparably rich countries have continued their premillennial fall at the rates that used to characterize the United States. Contemporaneous levels of resources—particularly slowly growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes—cannot provide a comprehensive explanation for poor mortality outcomes. We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage from one birth cohort to the next—in the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health—is triggered by progressively worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education. This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that policies—even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income—will take many years to reverse the increase in mortality and morbidity, and that those in midlife now are likely to do worse in old age than the current elderly. This is in contrast to accounts in which resources affect health contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare. None of this, however, implies that there are no policy levers to be pulled. For instance, reducing the overprescription of opioids should be an obvious target for policymakers.

Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century

In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great Recession to that in the early 1980s recession. We present raw tabulations and estimate a state panel data model that leverages variation across U.S. states in the timing and severity of business cycles. We find that the impacts of the Great Recession are not uniform across demographic groups and have been felt most strongly for men, black and Hispanic workers, youth, and low-education workers. These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are remarkably stable across three decades of time and throughout recessionary periods and expansionary periods. For the 2007 recession, these differences are largely explained by differences in exposure to cycles across industry-occupation employment.

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Who Suffers during Recessions

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(19)32540-1.pdf

A future for the world's children? A WHO-UNICEF-Lancet Commission

That prenatal events can have life-long consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the Fetal Origins Hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a “second act?” We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively mild shocks in early life can have substantial negative impacts, but that the effects are often heterogeneous reflecting differences in child endowments, budget constraints, and production technologies. Moreover, shocks, investments, and interventions can interact in complex ways that are only beginning to be understood. Many advances in our knowledge are due to increasing accessibility of comprehensive administrative data that allow events in early life to be linked to long-term outcomes. Yet, we still know relatively little about the interval between, and thus about whether it would be feasible to identify and intervene with affected individuals at some point between early life and adulthood. We do know enough, however, to be able to identify some interventions that hold promise for improving child outcomes in early life and throughout the life course.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act Ii

That prenatal events can have life-long consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the fetal origins hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a "second act?" We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively mild shocks in early life can have substantial negative impacts, but that the effects are often heterogeneous reflecting differences in child endowments, budget constraints, and production technologies. Moreover, shocks, investments, and interventions can interact in complex ways that we are only beginning to be understood. Many advances in our knowledge are due to increasing accessibility of comprehensive administrative data that allow events in early life to be linked to long-term outcomes. Yet, we still know relatively little about the interval between, and thus about whether it would be feasible to identify and intervene with affected individuals at some point between early life and adulthood. We do know enough, however, to be able to identify some interventions that hold promise for improving child outcomes in early life and throughout the life course.

/pdf/childhood-circumstances-and-adult-outcomes-act-ii-37pxufhzry.pdf

Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II

We use longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study to investigate the impacts of the Great Recession on the health of mothers. We focus on a wide range of physical and mental health outcomes, as well as health behaviors. We find that increases in the unemployment rate decrease self-reported health status and increase smoking and drug use. We also find evidence of heterogeneous impacts. Disadvantaged mothers-African-American, Hispanic, less educated, and unmarried-experience greater deterioration in their health than advantaged mothers-those who are white, married, and college educated.

/pdf/the-great-recession-and-mothers-health-649pr6bbcj.pdf

The Great Recession and Mothers’ Health

Este documento describe y analiza la evoluciA³n del desempleo desde 1980 estimando el efecto de los costos laborales no salariales (parafiscales) y salario mA­nimo sobre la tasa y duraciA³n del desempleo asA­ como el efecto de los costos mencionados sobre la informalidad. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que aumentos en las regulaciones laborales aumentan la informalidad, el desempleo y su duraciA³n. Al medir el impacto de los cambios en los costos no laborales desde comienzos de los noventa, se encuentra que aquellos generaron un desempleo adicional de por lo menos en 3.5 puntos porcentuales y 5.3 puntos de informalidad, ademAis de aumentar en 6 semanas la duraciA³n del desempleo. De esta manera, este documento confirma lo que ha sido seA±alado en otras investigaciones en relaciA³n al impacto negativo sobre indicadores del mercado laboral del aumento en los costos laborales y no laborales.

Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duraciÃ³n del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007

We explore how early-life shocks interact with subsequent human capital investments to influence children’s long-term outcomes. Using large-scale administrative data from Colombia, we combine a difference-in-difference framework with a regression discontinuity design to exploit two sources of exogenous variation: i) early-life exposure to adverse weather shocks that affect children’s initial skills and ii), the introduction of conditional cash transfers (CCT) that promote investments in children’s health and education. We show that the timing and type of CCT-induced investments matter for both the effects of CCTs and their interactive effects with weather shocks. When the CCT-induced investments occur in sensitive periods of human capital formation (e.g., early childhood), the effects are large and their interactive effects with weather conditions suggest that the returns of the program are even larger for children exposed to “normal” weather conditions. In contrast, CCT-induced investments that come relatively late in childhood (e.g., adolescence), have a smaller “main” effect and a smaller or zero interactive effect with weather shocks. We also find that initial CCT-induced health investments tend to have larger returns than initial CCT-induced educational investments. These findings shed new light on the developmental production function for human capital and the role of social policies in closing gaps generated by early-life adversities.

Valentina Duque

Papers

Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act Ii

Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act II

The Great Recession and Mothers’ Health

Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duraciÃ³n del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007

How Do Early-Life Shocks Interact with Subsequent Human Capital Investments? Evidence from Administrative Data