This paper summarizes and explains the main events of the liquidity and credit crunch in 2007-08. Starting with the trends leading up to the crisis, I explain how these events unfolded and how four different amplification mechanisms magnified losses in the mortgage market into large dislocations and turmoil in financial markets.

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Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08

The financial market turmoil in 2007 and 2008 has led to the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression and threatens to have large repercussions on the real economy The bursting of the housing bubble forced banks to write down several hundred billion dollars in bad loans caused by mortgage delinquencies At the same time, the stock market capitalization of the major banks declined by more than twice as much While the overall mortgage losses are large on an absolute scale, they are still relatively modest compared to the $8 trillion of US stock market wealth lost between October 2007, when the stock market reached an all-time high, and October 2008 This paper attempts to explain the economic mechanisms that caused losses in the mortgage market to amplify into such large dislocations and turmoil in the financial markets, and describes common economic threads that explain the plethora of market declines, liquidity dry-ups, defaults, and bailouts that occurred after the crisis broke in summer 2007 To understand these threads, it is useful to recall some key factors leading up to the housing bubble The US economy was experiencing a low interest rate environment, both because of large capital inflows from abroad, especially from Asian countries, and because the Federal Reserve had adopted a lax interest rate policy Asian countries bought US securities both to peg the exchange rates at an export-friendly level and to hedge against a depreciation of their own currencies against the dollar, a lesson learned from the Southeast Asian crisis of the late 1990s The Federal Reserve Bank feared a deflationary period after the bursting of the Internet bubble and thus did not counteract the buildup of the housing bubble At the same time, the banking system underwent an important transformation The

/pdf/deciphering-the-liquidity-and-credit-crunch-2007-2008-3612pahtil.pdf

Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008

This paper documents that new loans to large borrowers fell by 47% during the peak period of the financial crisis (fourth quarter of 2008) relative to the prior quarter and by 79% relative to the peak of the credit boom (second quarter of 2007). New lending for real investment (such as working capital and capital expenditures) fell by only 14% in the last quarter of 2008, but contracted nearly as much as new lending for restructuring (LBOs, M&A, share repurchases) relative to the peak of the credit boom. After the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 there was a run by short-term bank creditors, making it difficult for banks to roll over their short-term debt. We document that there was a simultaneous run by borrowers who drew down their credit lines, leading to a spike in commercial and industrial loans reported on bank balance sheets. We examine whether these two stresses on bank liquidity led them to cut lending. In particular, we show that banks cut their lending less if they had better access to deposit financing and thus they were not as reliant on short-term debt. We also show that banks that were more vulnerable to credit line drawdowns because they co-syndicated more of their credit lines with Lehman Brothers reduced their lending to a greater extent.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1442021_code380705.pdf?abstractid=1297337&rulid=34284&mirid=5

Bank Lending During the Financial Crisis of 2008

https://gates.comm.virginia.edu/uvafinanceseminar/ivashina paper 09.pdf

During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, firms with high social capital, measured as corporate social responsibility (CSR) intensity, had stock returns that were four to seven percentage points higher than firms with low social capital. High-CSR firms also experienced higher profitability, growth, and sales per employee relative to low-CSR firms, and they raised more debt. This evidence suggests that the trust between the firm and both its stakeholders and investors, built through investments in social capital, pays off when the overall level of trust in corporations and markets suffers a negative shock.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jofi.12505

Social Capital, Trust, and Firm Performance: The Value of Corporate Social Responsibility during the Financial Crisis

Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers’ collateral, which affect firms’ ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler, 1989). Or it can stem from shocks to bank capital, which affects the supply of bank loans if agency and information problems limit the ability of banks to raise additional capital (Bernanke, 1983). In this paper, we examine cyclicality in the supply of credit in the context of modern forms of banking, often referred to as the “originate-to-distribute” model. In particular, we focus on the role of syndicated lending.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1538892_code380705.pdf?abstractid=1538892&rulid=290296&mirid=3

Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers’ collateral, which affect firms’ ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S. Bernanke and Mark Gertler 1989). Or it can stem from shocks to bank capital, which affect the supply of bank loans if agency and information problems limit the ability of banks to raise additional capital (Bernanke 1983). Both of these channels may have been at work during the financial crisis that started in 2007. Ran Duchin, Oguzhan Ozbas, and Berk A. Sensoy (2010) show that firms with more collateral were better able to withstand the contraction in credit, and Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein (2010) show that reductions in bank capital had an adverse effect on lending. In this paper, we examine cyclicality in the supply of credit in the context of modern forms of banking, often referred to as the “originateto-distribute” model. In particular, we are interested in the role of syndicated lending. In traditional bank lending—the focus of most models of banking—banks originate and hold loans on their balance sheets. This exposes banks to risk but provides them with strong incentives to screen and monitor borrowers (Douglas W. Diamond 1984). Over the last 20 years, however, the development and growth of the syndicated loan market has enabled a bank to originate a loan but retain only a fraction of it. On average, the originating bank (or “lead bank”) retains about a third of each syndicated loan and sells the remaining share to a syndicate of investors, which includes banks and institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, and sponsors of structured Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

https://www.jstor.org/stable/info/27804963

Using a novel data set that covers individual debt claims against 136 bankrupt US companies and includes information on a subset of claims transfers, we provide new empirical insight regarding how a firm’s debt ownership relates to bankruptcy outcomes. Firms with higher debt concentration at the start of the case are more likely to file prearranged bankruptcy plans, to move quickly through the restructuring process, and to emerge successfully as independent going concerns. Moreover, higher ownership concentration within a debt class is associated with higher recovery rates to that class. Trading of claims during bankruptcy concentrates ownership further, but this trading is not associated with subsequent improvements in bankruptcy outcomes and could, at the margin, increase the likelihood of liquidation.

/pdf/the-ownership-and-trading-of-debt-claims-in-chapter-11-36zk4osw49.pdf

The Ownership and Trading of Debt Claims in Chapter 11 Restructurings

In this paper, we investigate the disciplining role of banks and bank debt in the market for corporate control. We find that relationship bank lending intensity and bank client network have positive effects on the probability of a borrowing firm becoming a target. This effect is enhanced in cases where the target and acquirer have a relationship with the same bank. Moreover, we utilize an experiment to show that the effects of relationship bank lending intensity on takeover probability are not driven by endogeneity. Finally, we also investigate reasons motivating a bank's informational role in the market for corporate control.

Bank Debt and Corporate Governance

We examine twenty years of direct private equity investments by seven large institutions. These direct investments perform better than public market indices, especially buyout investments and those made in the 1990s. Outperformance by the direct investments, however, relative to the corresponding private equity fund benchmarks is limited and concentrated among buyout transactions. Co-investments underperform the corresponding funds with which they co-invest, due to an apparent adverse selection of transactions available to these investors, while solo transactions outperform fund benchmarks. Investors’ ability to resolve information problems appears to be an important driver of solo deal outcomes.

/pdf/the-disintermediation-of-financial-markets-direct-investing-589uikes1r.pdf

Victoria Ivashina

Papers

Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles

The Ownership and Trading of Debt Claims in Chapter 11 Restructurings

Bank Debt and Corporate Governance

The Disintermediation of Financial Markets: Direct Investing in Private Equity