[1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

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Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes

We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

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A reconciled estimate of ice-sheet mass balance

Supplementary Materials for A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

[1] Ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques, over different time periods, and at various levels of spatial detail. Considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method, the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates, and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance. Here, we present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity. We find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss. In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 Gt/yr, equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise. Notably, the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21.9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 for Greenland and 14.5 ± 2 Gt/yr2 for Antarctica, for a combined total of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2. This acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps (12 ± 6 Gt/yr2). If this trend continues, ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century.

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Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise

Impact of refreezing on the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in a changing climate

The present-day climate of Antarctica is studied with a regional climate model. In this research, foci are the surface mass balance, i.e. the accumulation of snow on the ice cap, and the heat budget of the atmosphere above Antarctica. Insight in the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice cap is gained by explanation, evaluation and subsequently calibration of model-simulated surface mass balance patterns using more than 1900 in situ observations. Furthermore, a method is developed to quantify the uncertainty in the local and spatially integrated surface mass balance estimate. In our study, a good correlation between the observations and model results is found, giving reliability to the results presented. The final surface mass balance estimate primarily deviates in the coastal zones of Antarctica from earlier estimates. Our results strongly suggest much higher accumulation rates than previously assumed, leading to a 15% higher overall accumulation. Unfortunately, the coastal zone is poorly covered by observations, which makes a final assessment difficult. Analysis of the heat budget of the Antarctic atmosphere clarifies the dynamics of the Antarctic boundary layer and shows the coupling to the global climate. Our results show how the boundary layer develops from the interior of Antarctica to the coast; from shallow and extremely stable to deeper, mixed but still stable. Furthermore, the effect of surface undulations on the local near surface temperature is explained. Domes and ridges have a weakening effect on the surface inversion of the temperature through enhanced divergence of the near-surface wind field. Oppositely, valleys strengthen the surface inversion. This coupling of topography and temperature causes the spatial variability of surface temperatures on scales of typical a few hundred kilometers.

Present-day climate of Antarctica : A study with a regional atmospheric climate model

It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

/pdf/towards-coupling-of-regional-atmosphere-models-to-ice-sheet-193s9ognkc.pdf

Towards coupling of regional atmosphere models to ice sheet models by mass balance gradients - application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

The physics package of the polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2 has been updated from RACMO2.1 to RACMO2.3. The update primarily consists of an improved turbulent and radiative flux scheme and a changed cloud scheme that includes a parameterization for ice cloud super-saturation. In this study the effects of these changes on the modelled surface energy balance, near-surface temperature and wind speed of Antarctica are presented. The 5 ice cloud super-saturation has led to more moisture being transported onto the continent, resulting in more and optically thicker clouds and more downward longwave radiation. As a result, overall RACMO2.3 better represents the near-surface climate in terms of the modelled surface energy balance, based on a comparison with > 750 months of data from nine automatic weather stations located in East Antarctica. Especially the representation of the sensible heat flux and net longwave 10 radiative flux has improved with a decrease in biases of up to 40 %. As a result, modelled surface temperatures have increased and the bias, when compared to 10 m snow temperatures from 64 ice core observations, has decreased from −2.3 K to −1.3 K. The weaker surface temperature inversion consequently improves the representation of the sensible heat flux, whereas wind speed remains unchanged. However, significant model biases remain, partly because RACMO2 at a resolution of 27 15 km is unable to resolve steep topography.

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Updated cloud physics improve the modelled near surface climate of Antarctica of a regional atmospheric climate model

/pdf/brief-communication-upper-air-relaxation-in-racmo2-2hlrx52ebt.pdf

W. J. van de Berg

Papers

Impact of refreezing on the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet in a changing climate

Present-day climate of Antarctica : A study with a regional atmospheric climate model

Towards coupling of regional atmosphere models to ice sheet models by mass balance gradients - application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

Updated cloud physics improve the modelled near surface climate of Antarctica of a regional atmospheric climate model

Brief Communication: Upper air relaxation in RACMO2 significantly improves modelled interannual SMB variability in Antarctica