Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Both the magnitude and the urgency of the task of assessing global biodiversity require that we make the most of what we know through the use of estimation and extrapolation. Likewise, future biodiversity inventories need to be designed around the use of effective sampling and estimation procedures, especially for 'hyperdiverse' groups of terrestrial organisms, such as arthropods, nematodes, fungi, and microorganisms. The challenge of estimating patterns of species richness from samples can be separated into (i) the problem of estimating local species richness, and (ii) the problem of estimating the distinctness, or complementarity, of species assemblages. These concepts apply on a wide range of spatial, temporal, and functional scales. Local richness can be estimated by extrapolating species accumulation curves, fitting parametric distributions of relative abundance, or using non-parametric techniques based on the distribution of individuals among species or of species among samples. We present several of these methods and examine their effectiveness for an example data set. We present a simple measure of complementarity, with some biogeographic examples, and outline the difficult problem of estimating complementarity from samples. Finally, we discuss the importance of using 'reference' sites (or sub-sites) to assess the true richness and composition of species assemblages, to measure ecologically significant ratios between unrelated taxa, to measure taxon/sub-taxon (hierarchical) ratios, and to 'calibrate' standardized sampling methods. This information can then be applied to the rapid, approximate assessment of species richness and faunal or floral composition at 'comparative' sites.

Estimating Terrestrial Biodiversity through Extrapolation

Conservation evaluation and phylogenetic diversity

Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors under-pinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear, predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience—the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop—as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options.

https://bioone.org/journals/AMBIO-A-Journal-of-the-Human-Environment/volume-31/issue-5/0044-7447-31.5.437/Resilience-and-Sustainable-Development--Building-Adaptive-Capacity-in-a/10.1579/0044-7447-31.5.437.pdf

Resilience and sustainable development: building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations

There exists little doubt that the Earth's biodiversity is declining. The Nature Conservancy, for example, has documented that one-third of the plant and animal species in the United States are now at risk of extinction. The problem is a monumental one, and forces us to consider in depth how we expect ecosystems, which ultimately are our life-support systems, to respond to reductions in diversity. This issue--commonly referred to as the diversity-stability debate--is the subject of this review, which synthesizes historical ideas with recent advances. Both theory and empirical evidence agree that we should expect declines in diversity to accelerate the simplification of ecological communities.

The diversity–stability debate

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts of critical ecosystem services requires a process that engages scientists and decision-makers. Interdisciplinary linkages are necessary because of the climate and societal controls on ecosystems, the feedbacks involving social change, and the decision-making relevance of forecasts.

/pdf/ecological-forecasts-an-emerging-imperative-4e6qpt4sjp.pdf

Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

The 1990s may be the last decade during which constructive and creative decisions, activities, and investments can be made to ensure that many of the world's species and ecosystems are maintained, examined for their material and ecological value, and promoted for sustainable use to support new and innovative approaches to development. The combination of maintaining the maximum possible biological and cultural diversity, and the greatest possible scientific endeavor seems the most sensible approach toward dealing with the dynamic future facing humanity. The elements now exist that will reverse the trend toward the biotic impoverishment of the world. New partners in conservation need to be found, involving all ministries, departments, and private institutions that are directly dependent on biological resources. For example, national parks departments should be joined in habitat management by a wide range of other institutions to represent all interests. Furthermore, other line agencies need to develop the capacity to manage biodiversity of particular relevance to their respective missions. Actions taken in the next few years will determine whether we take a road toward a chaotic future characterized by overexploitation and abuse of our biological resources, or take the road toward maintaining greater biological diversity and resource sustainability.

Conserving the World's Biological Diversity

This book offers an overview of where the worlds species and genetic resources are located why they are valuable and a new analysis of species extinctions in tropical forests; presents a survey of the most recent findings of conservation biology; and suggests how these findings can be applied. The report ends by emphasizing the interdependence between biological diversity and human cultural diversity and the policy implications of this critical bond. The single greatest cause of species extinction is tropical deforestation where 50% of the estimated 10 million species on earth are being destroyed at the rate of 5-10% per decade. Freshwater river habitats and tropical islands are also losing species rapidly through habitat conversion and species introduction. Species can only be managed effectively by preserving habitats. The inevitable human population growth will increase demands on habitats as well as the need for biological diversity. The cost of not addressing this problem will be higher than setting management in motion. The solution is largely political; fund research put biodiversity conservation into development priorities encourage integrated regional and cross-sectoral coordination establish national priorities and promote biocultural conservation.

Keeping Options Alive: The Scientific Basis for Conserving Biodiversity

Biodiversity Prospecting: Using Genetic Resources for Sustainable Development

How can ecosystems provide sustainable services to benefit society? Reporting this week at the end of a four-year study, The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is an ambitious project that set out to evaluate the status of the Earth's human support systems. Sponsors including the World Bank, United Nations and many universities hope that it will help policy-makers by putting data such as biodiversity into the context of how ecosystem changes have affected human well-being, and how they may do so in the future. There are no plans to repeat the exercise, but in this week's Commentary three contributors to the project argue that such assessments should be a continuing process.

W. V. Reid

Papers

Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative.

Conserving the World's Biological Diversity

Keeping Options Alive: The Scientific Basis for Conserving Biodiversity

Biodiversity Prospecting: Using Genetic Resources for Sustainable Development

Confronting the human dilemma.