The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) brings together over 300 international researchers to provide an independent, scientifically based, integrated and policy-relevant analysis of current and emerging energy issues and options. It has been peer-reviewed anonymously by an additional 200 international experts. The GEA assesses the major global challenges for sustainable development and their linkages to energy; the technologies and resources available for providing energy services; future energy systems that address the major challenges; and the policies and other measures that are needed to realize transformational change toward sustainable energy futures. The GEA goes beyond existing studies on energy issues by presenting a comprehensive and integrated analysis of energy chalenges, opportunities and strategies, for developing, industrialized and emerging economies. This volume is a invaluable resource for energy specialists and technologists in all sectors (academia, industry and government) as well as policymakers, development economists and practitioners in international organizations and national governments.

Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future

1. Control Methodology 2. Dynamical Systems 3. Applications to Social and Environmental Problems

Dynamics and Control

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/energysecurity/documents/publications/Cherp_and_Jewell%202011.pdf

The three perspectives on energy security: intellectual history, disciplinary roots and the potential for integration

We propose measures of the total volatility spillover, the regional volatility spillovers of 11 countries, and the directional volatility spillovers between Chinese and world equity markets from February 1996 to December 2009, based on forecast-error variance decompositions in a generalized vector autoregressive framework given by Diebold and Yilmaz (2010). It is found that: 1) The Chinese stock market was little affected by other equity markets in the sample period. After 2005, the volatility of the Chinese market had a significantly positive impact on other markets; 2) The volatility interactions among the Chinese, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are more prominent than those among the Chinese, Western and other Asian markets. The volatility spillovers among the Chinese, Japanese and Indian markets are more distinctive than those among the Chinese, US and UK markets; 3) The US market had dominant volatility impacts on other markets during the subprime mortgage crisis. While the other markets were very volatile, driven by the bad news, their huge volatility has been transmitted back to the US market; 4) The major correction of Chinese stock market between February and July 2007 significantly contributed to the volatility surges of other markets. Due to the restriction of foreign investment, the Chinese stock market has not been greatly affected in terms of market volatility during the crisis.

Volatility Spillovers between Chinese and World Equity Markets

We propose measures of the directional volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets based on Diebold and Yilmaz's (2011b) forecast-error variance decompositions in a generalized vector autoregressive framework. It was found that the US market had dominant volatility impacts on other markets during the subprime mortgage crisis. The other markets were also very volatile, and driven by bad news, their massive volatilities were transmitted back to the US market. The volatility of the Chinese market has had a significantly positive impact on other markets since 2005. The volatility interactions among the markets of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were more prominent than those among the Chinese, Western, and other Asian markets were. The major correction of the Chinese stock market between February and July 2007 significantly contributed to the volatility surges of other markets. Owing to the restrictions on foreign investment, the Chinese stock market was not considerably affected in terms of market volatility during the subprime mortgage crisis.

Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets

We explore the possibility of structural breaks in the daily realized volatility of the Deutschemark/Dollar, Yen/Dollar and Yen/Deutschemark spot exchange rates with observed long-memory behavior. We find that structural breaks in the mean can partly explain the persistence of realized volatility. We propose a VAR-RV-Break model that provides superior predictive ability when the timing of future breaks is known. With unknown break dates and sizes, we find that a VAR-RV-I(d) long memory model provides a robust forecasting method even when the true financial volatility series are generated by structural breaks.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1325003_code669783.pdf?abstractid=1325003&mirid=5&type=2

Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

https://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/research/longMemoryStructuralBreaksRV.pdf

Long Memory versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

The paper examines the short-run spillover effects of daily stock returns and volatilities between the S&P 500 in the U.S. and Shanghai SSE composite in China. First, we find that a structural break occurred in the SSE stock return mean in December 2005. Second, by analyzing modified GARCH (1,1)-M models, we find evidence of a symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effect from the U.S. to the China stock market in the post-break period. Third, we observe the symmetric volatility spillover effect from China to the U.S. in the post-break period.

Volatility Spillovers between the US and the China Stock Markets: Structural Break Test with Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Approaches

This article outlines a framework for evaluating the decision of undergraduate students to engage in term-time employment as a method of financing higher education. We then examine the impact of work on academic achievement and find that employment has modest negative effects on student grades, with a grade point average (GPA) falling by 0.007 points per work hour. We use a unique custom dataset based on students at a traditional regional state university that provides information on student motivations and allows us to directly address some of the endogeneity problems that affect existing literature. We find that students who work for primarily financial reasons earn lower grades than students who work for career-specific skills but higher grades than those students motivated by a desire for general work experience.

Term-Time Employment and the Academic Performance of Undergraduates

The paper examines the short-run spillover effects of daily stock returns and volatilities between the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 stock index in the US and the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) index in China. First, we find that a structural break occurred in the SSE stock return mean in December 2005. Second, by analyzing modified general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)(1,1)-M models, we find evidence of a symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effect from the US to the China stock market in the post-break period. Third, we observe the symmetric volatility spillover effect from China to the US in the post-break period.

Wei-Choun Yu

Papers

Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Long Memory versus Structural Breaks in Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Volatility Spillovers between the US and the China Stock Markets: Structural Break Test with Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Approaches

Term-Time Employment and the Academic Performance of Undergraduates

Volatility Spillovers between the US and China Stock Markets: Structural Break Test with Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Approaches