计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is projected to have adverse consequences on the global tourism and hospitality industry. This paper aims to examine how the outbreak may alter Chinese tourists’ lifestyle choices, travel behaviour and tourism preferences in the short and long term.,This paper is based on the synthesis of news broadcasted by several media outlets to be supported by an overview of the related literature on tourism marketing, tourism management and tourist behaviour. The authors’ experiences investigating trends in tourism and hospitality at the local and international level have also contributed to the study.,This paper predicts that COVID-19 will likely affect Chinese travellers’ consumption patterns, such as the growing popularity of free and independent travel, luxury trips and health and wellness tourism. New forms of tourism including slow tourism and smart tourism may also drive future tourism activities. Such changes are likely to force businesses to reconsider their service designs and distribution channels.,While Chinese and other potential visitors rethink how they travel, professionals, too, should reflect upon how to bring positive or negative changes to the tourism industry following this pandemic. Subsequent research should also consider how to mitigate the effects of similar public health crises in the future.,Recommendations for industry practitioners and policymakers focus on tailoring travel arrangements to tourists’ backgrounds. The suggestions may help to alleviate outbreak-related stress, offer travellers newly enriching experiences and partially mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality industry. These recommendations can also apply more broadly to global tourist markets.,The COVID-19 outbreak has already brought significant impacts to nearly every society and industry. Tourism scholars and practitioners should carefully consider this tragedy and how it may inform industry and social practices. This and other public health crises represent sterling opportunities to view the industry holistically in terms of its effects on the environment, climate and travellers themselves.,This paper presumably represents a frontier study, critically examining the possible impacts of COVID-19 on Chinese travellers’ consumption patterns and how the tourism and hospitality industry may respond to such changes in the future.,预计2019年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）爆发将对全球旅游和酒店业产生不利影响。本文预测, COVID-19可能会影响中国旅客的消费方式, 例如自由行, 豪华旅行以及健康与养生旅游的普及。包括慢速旅游和智能旅游在内的新型旅游形式也可能推动未来的旅游活动。这种变化可能促使企业重新考虑其服务设计和分销渠道。针对行业从业者和政策制定者的建议着重于根据游客的背景和需求量身定制旅行安排。我们的建议可能有助于减轻与疫情暴发导致的压力, 为旅行者提供全新的丰富体验, 并从一定程度减轻COVID-19对旅游业和酒店业的影响。这些建议还可以更广泛地应用于全球旅游市场。,COVID-19, 生活方式 旅游行为 灾后 集体主义倾向 中国,El impacto del COVID-19 se preve importante en la actividad turistica global y en la industria de la hosteleria. Este articulo predice que el COVID-19 afectara con probabilidad alta los patrones de consumo de los viajeros chinos, incluyendo los cada vez mas populares viajes comprados directamente por los consumidores chinos, en el segmento del lujo, y el turismo de salud y belleza. Nuevas formas de turismo, incluyendo el slow tourism, y el turismo responsable pueden convertirse en importantes tendencias de futuro igualmente. Dichos cambios llevaran con cierta seguridad a la industria a reconsiderar y adaptar su oferta de servicios en este sector, en particular su diseno y los canales de distribucion utilizados. Las recomendaciones para la industria y los responsables de la politica turistica se alinean con una mayor proximidad de la oferta a los gustos cambiantes del consumidor. Dichas acciones ayudaran a reducir fricciones y fallos en la definicion del negocio turistico, ofreciendo a los viajeros nuevas y enriquecedoras experiencias, asi como podran mitigar en parte los efectos adversos estimados del COVID-19, los cuales son relevantes a dia de hoy. Asi mismo, dichas recomendaciones son aplicables de una manera mas global a la industria del turismo y la hospitalidad en el mercado mundial.,COVID-19, Estilo de vida, Conducta del viajero, Post-desastre, Orientacion collectivista, China

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COVID-19: potential effects on Chinese citizens’ lifestyle and travel

Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A ‘go-slow’ approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.

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Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures.

Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry

Assessing impacts of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourism demand to Asia.

Researchers of climate change have suggested that climate change and variability has a significant influence on the epidemiology of infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne diseases. The purpose of this study is to explore how climate conditions and the dengue fever epidemic in Taiwan are related and to estimate the economic impact of climate change on infectious diseases. To achieve these objectives, two different methods, one involving the Panel data model and the other the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), are applied in this study. At first, we use the Panel data model to assess the relationship between climate conditions and the number of people infected by dengue fever during the period from January 2000 to February 2006 in 308 cities and townships in the Taiwan. The results of the empirical estimation indicate that climate conditions have an increasingly significant impact on the probability of people being infected by dengue fever. The probability of being infected by dengue fever due to climate change is then calculated and is found to range from 12% to 43% to 87% which represent low, mid, and high probabilities of infection caused by climate change when the temperature is increased by 1.8°C. The respondent’s willingness to pay (WTP) is also investigated in the survey using the single-bounded dichotomous choice (SBDC) approach, and the results show that people would pay NT$724, NT$3,223 and NT$5,114 per year in order to avoid the increased probabilities of 12%, 43%, and 87%, respectively, of their being infected with dengue fever.

Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on infectious diseases: a case study on dengue fever in Taiwan

Eliciting public preference for nuclear energy against the backdrop of global warming

Climate change is regarded as one of the major factors enhancing the transmission intensity of dengue fever. In this study, we estimated the threshold effects of temperature on Aedes mosquito larval index as an early warning tool for dengue prevention. We also investigated the relationship between dengue vector index and dengue epidemics in Taiwan using weekly panel data for 17 counties from January 2012 to May 2019. To achieve our goals, we first applied the panel threshold regression technique to test for threshold effects and determine critical temperature values. Data were then further decomposed into different sets corresponding to different temperature regimes. Finally, negative binomial regression models were applied to assess the non-linear relationship between meteorological factors and Breteau index (BI). At the national level, we found that a 1°C temperature increase caused the expected value of BI to increase by 0.09 units when the temperature is less than 27.21 °C, and by 0.26 units when the temperature is greater than 27.21 °C. At the regional level, the dengue vector index was more sensitive to temperature changes because double threshold effects were found in the southern Taiwan model. For southern Taiwan, as the temperature increased by 1°C, the expected value of BI increased by 0.29, 0.63, and 1.49 units when the average temperature was less than 27.27 °C, between 27.27 and 30.17 °C, and higher than 30.17 °C, respectively. In addition, the effects of precipitation and relative humidity on BI became stronger when the average temperature exceeded the thresholds. Regarding the impacts of climate change on BI, our results showed that the potential effects on BI range from 3.5 to 54.42% under alternative temperature scenarios. By combining threshold regression techniques with count data regression models, this study provides evidence of threshold effects between climate factors and the dengue vector index. The proposed threshold of temperature could be incorporated into the implementation of public health measures and risk prediction to prevent and control dengue fever in the future.

https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/4/1392/pdf

Estimating the Threshold Effects of Climate on Dengue: A Case Study of Taiwan.

This study examines how experience of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) influences the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on international tourism demand for four Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and New Zealand, over the 1 January–30 April 2020 period. To proceed, panel regression models are first applied with a time-lag effect to estimate the general effects of COVID-19 on daily tourist arrivals. In turn, the data set is decomposed into two nation groups and fixed effects models are employed for addressing the comparison of the pandemic-tourism relationship between economies with and without experiences of the SARS epidemic. Specifically, Taiwan and Hong Kong are grouped as economies with SARS experiences, while Thailand and New Zealand are grouped as countries without experiences of SARS. The estimation result indicates that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has a significant negative impact on tourism demand, in which a 1% COVID-19 case increase causes a 0.075% decline in tourist arrivals, which is a decline of approximately 110 arrivals for every additional person infected by the coronavirus. The negative impact of COVID-19 on tourist arrivals for Thailand and New Zealand is found much stronger than for Taiwan and Hong Kong. In particular, the number of tourist arrivals to Taiwan and Hong Kong decreased by 0.034% in response to a 1% increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases, while in Thailand and New Zealand, a 1% national confirmed cases increase caused a 0.103% reduction in tourism demand. Moreover, the effect of the number of domestic cases on international tourism is found lower than the effect caused by global COVID-19 mortality for the economies with SARS experiences. In contrast, tourist arrivals are majorly affected by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Thailand and New Zealand. Finally, travel restriction in all cases is found to be the most influencing factor for the number of tourist arrivals. Besides contributing to the existing literature focusing on the knowledge regarding the nexus between tourism and COVID-19, the paper’s findings also highlight the importance of risk perception and the need of transmission prevention and control of the epidemic for the tourism sector.

Wei-Chun Tseng

Papers

Assessing impacts of SARS and Avian Flu on international tourism demand to Asia.

Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on infectious diseases: a case study on dengue fever in Taiwan

Eliciting public preference for nuclear energy against the backdrop of global warming

Estimating the Threshold Effects of Climate on Dengue: A Case Study of Taiwan.

Tourism under the early phase of COVID-19 in four APEC economies: an estimation with special focus on SARS experiences