1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

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Research methods in social relations

Contrasting treatment‐specific survival using double‐robust estimators

All Our Kin: Strategies for Survival in a Black Community. C. B. Stack. New York: Harper & Row. 1974. Carol Stack wrote one of the most powerful books of the last half century about African American families. The book's power derived from its focus on the stories and the lives of persons who were struggling to manage with limited resources and who had evolved seamless methods of survival and coping strategies. Stack was not content to view the problems of impoverished African American families from an outside perspective, as had been done in the past, but chose instead to present her work from the view of the participants. She presented a sensitive view of families that has not been duplicated to this day. Stack put specific emphasis on being accepted by the families before she began interviewing them. She and her son took a long time to be accepted by the families as they gradually became participants in the day-to-day lives of the "Flats." She was sensitive to the patterns of interactions among the networks of family and friends that would have been overlooked by almost any other researcher or method of observation. The book showed how a person from another racial and economic group was able, with skill, to become an intimate part of the experience and the lives of very poor families. Her anthropological approach stands in sharp contrast to the countless attempts of others to quickly go in and pull out slices of families' lives with a preexisting conceptual framework. The African American families of the Flats were presented as they were, not from a White academic theoretical perspective that was not based on reality. Stack made many observations that allowed one to see the intricate workings of the families that "outsiders" had not been documented before. Participants were allowed to make observations about their own families' patterns of interaction and to uncover truths of family functioning based on the reality of their lives. Important data on these second-generation urban dwellers are presented in such a calm manner that one could overlook their significance to the field. The impact of the economic pressures on the men and women in the African American community show how persons can have mainstream values but are prevented from achieving them because of the lack of employment and economic security within the community. In response to the reality, Stack found that African Americans have cooperated to produce an adaptive strategy of exchanging goods and trading resources, as well as offering child care or temporary fosterage. Kinship boundaries were more elastic than they were in more affluent families because these individuals immersed themselves in a domestic network of kinfolk and fictive kin, or those who became as kin. The participants in Stack's study moved around and had loyalties to more than one household grouping at a time, making their family networks unlike the "household" structures of most American families. These networks were diffused over several kin-based households that changed frequently. The usual method of arbitrarily specifying widely accepted definitions of the family as nuclear or matrilocal may block one from seeing the world as it exists in very poor communities. Stack's observations refuted the "culture of poverty" position that had seen African Americans as having no culture or totally negative qualities of family disorganization, personal disorganization, and fatalism. Unfortunately, too many current writings on African Americans still take these same positions. The views may be the result of ignorance, naivete, or complex levels of racism that insidiously make their way into present family literature. Stack continued to reflect on the poverty of the participants' situations. By doing so, she avoided another position that is all too common-assumption that all African American families are the same, regardless of their levels of poverty or affluence. …

All Our Kin: Strategies for Survival in a Black Community

Despite increased scholarly and policy attention to prisoner reentry, much remains unknown about the factors that contribute to a successful transition from prison to society. The authors focused on a neglected but potentially critical factor, inmate visitation, that may reduce recidivism. The expectation of such an effect stems from prominent crime theories and an increasing body of work that stresses the importance of social ties to the reentry process. Using data from the Florida Department of Corrections, the authors tested hypotheses about the effects of visitation on recidivism. The measures of visitation included whether any visits occurred, the frequency and recency of visitation, and the type of visitor received (e.g., family member, friend). The authors also examined whether visitation effects varied by age, sex, race, type of instant offense, and prior incarceration. The findings indicate that visitation reduces and delays recidivism. Their implications for theory, research, and policy are disc...

Inmate Social Ties and the Transition to Society: Does Visitation Reduce Recidivism?

Florida law allows judges to withhold adjudication of guilt for individuals who have been found guilty of a felony and are being sentenced to probation. Such individuals lose no civil rights and may lawfully assert they had not been convicted of a felony. Labeling theory would predict that the receipt of a felony label could increase the likelihood of recidivism. Reconviction data for 95,919 men and women who were either adjudicated or had adjudication withheld show that those formally labeled are significantly more likely to recidivate in 2 years than those who are not. Labeling effects are stronger for women, whites, and those who reach the age of 30 years without a prior conviction. Second-level indicators of county characteristics (e.g., crime rates or concentrated disadvantage) have no significant effect on the adjudication/recidivism relationship.

The labeling of convicted felons and its consequences for recidivism

Scholars and policymakers have called for greater attention to understanding the causes of and solutions to improved prisoner reentry outcomes, resulting in renewed attention to a factor—prison visitation—long believed to reduce recidivism. However, despite the theoretical arguments advanced on its behalf and increased calls for evidence-based policy, there remains little credible empirical research on whether a beneficial relationship between visitation and recidivism in fact exists. Against that backdrop, this study employs propensity score matching analyses to examine whether visitation of various types and in varying amounts, or “doses,” is in fact negatively associated with recidivism outcomes among a cohort of released prisoners. The analyses suggest that visitation has a small to modest effect in reducing recidivism of all types, especially property offending, and that the effects may be most pronounced for spouse or significant other visitation. We discuss the implications of the findings for rese...

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Prison Visitation and Recidivism

Despite the marked increase in incarceration over the past 30 years and the fact that roughly two thirds of released offenders are rearrested within 3 years of release, we know little about how the social ecology of the areas to which offenders return may influence their recidivism or whether it disproportionately affects some groups more than others. Drawing on recent scholarship on prisoner reentry and macrolevel predictors of crime, this study examines a large sample of prisoners released to Florida communities to investigate how two dimensions of social ecology—resource deprivation and racial segregation—may independently, and in interaction with specific populations, influence recidivism. The findings suggest that ecology indeed is consequential for recidivism, and it differentially influences some groups more than others. We discuss these findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy.

Social ecology and recidivism: implications for prisoner reentry*

Florida law allows judges to withhold adjudication of guilt for persons who have either pled guilty or been found guilty of a felony. This provision may apply only to persons who will be sentenced to probation, and it allows such individuals to retain all civil rights and to truthfully assert they had not been convicted of a felony. This paper examines the effects of race and Hispanic ethnicity on the withholding of adjudication for 91,477 males sentenced to probation in Florida between 1999 and 2002. Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling is used to assess the direct effects of defendant attributes as well as the cross-level interactions between race, ethnicity and community level indicators of threat, such as percentage black and Hispanic and concentrated disadvantage. Our results show that Hispanics and blacks are significantly less likely to have adjudication withheld when other individual and community level factors are controlled. This effect is especially pronounced for blacks and for drug offenders. Cross-level interactions show that concentrated disadvantage has a substantial effect on the adjudication withheld outcome for both black and Hispanic defendants. The implications of these results for the conceptualization of racial/ethnic threat at the individual, situational and social levels are discussed.

William D. Bales

Papers

Inmate Social Ties and the Transition to Society: Does Visitation Reduce Recidivism?

The labeling of convicted felons and its consequences for recidivism

Prison Visitation and Recidivism

Social ecology and recidivism: implications for prisoner reentry*

Race, ethnicity, threat and the labeling of convicted felons*