Preface 1. Decision-Theoretic Foundations 1.1 Game Theory, Rationality, and Intelligence 1.2 Basic Concepts of Decision Theory 1.3 Axioms 1.4 The Expected-Utility Maximization Theorem 1.5 Equivalent Representations 1.6 Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems 1.7 Limitations of the Bayesian Model 1.8 Domination 1.9 Proofs of the Domination Theorems Exercises 2. Basic Models 2.1 Games in Extensive Form 2.2 Strategic Form and the Normal Representation 2.3 Equivalence of Strategic-Form Games 2.4 Reduced Normal Representations 2.5 Elimination of Dominated Strategies 2.6 Multiagent Representations 2.7 Common Knowledge 2.8 Bayesian Games 2.9 Modeling Games with Incomplete Information Exercises 3. Equilibria of Strategic-Form Games 3.1 Domination and Ratonalizability 3.2 Nash Equilibrium 3.3 Computing Nash Equilibria 3.4 Significance of Nash Equilibria 3.5 The Focal-Point Effect 3.6 The Decision-Analytic Approach to Games 3.7 Evolution. Resistance. and Risk Dominance 3.8 Two-Person Zero-Sum Games 3.9 Bayesian Equilibria 3.10 Purification of Randomized Strategies in Equilibria 3.11 Auctions 3.12 Proof of Existence of Equilibrium 3.13 Infinite Strategy Sets Exercises 4. Sequential Equilibria of Extensive-Form Games 4.1 Mixed Strategies and Behavioral Strategies 4.2 Equilibria in Behavioral Strategies 4.3 Sequential Rationality at Information States with Positive Probability 4.4 Consistent Beliefs and Sequential Rationality at All Information States 4.5 Computing Sequential Equilibria 4.6 Subgame-Perfect Equilibria 4.7 Games with Perfect Information 4.8 Adding Chance Events with Small Probability 4.9 Forward Induction 4.10 Voting and Binary Agendas 4.11 Technical Proofs Exercises 5. Refinements of Equilibrium in Strategic Form 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Perfect Equilibria 5.3 Existence of Perfect and Sequential Equilibria 5.4 Proper Equilibria 5.5 Persistent Equilibria 5.6 Stable Sets 01 Equilibria 5.7 Generic Properties 5.8 Conclusions Exercises 6. Games with Communication 6.1 Contracts and Correlated Strategies 6.2 Correlated Equilibria 6.3 Bayesian Games with Communication 6.4 Bayesian Collective-Choice Problems and Bayesian Bargaining Problems 6.5 Trading Problems with Linear Utility 6.6 General Participation Constraints for Bayesian Games with Contracts 6.7 Sender-Receiver Games 6.8 Acceptable and Predominant Correlated Equilibria 6.9 Communication in Extensive-Form and Multistage Games Exercises Bibliographic Note 7. Repeated Games 7.1 The Repeated Prisoners Dilemma 7.2 A General Model of Repeated Garnet 7.3 Stationary Equilibria of Repeated Games with Complete State Information and Discounting 7.4 Repeated Games with Standard Information: Examples 7.5 General Feasibility Theorems for Standard Repeated Games 7.6 Finitely Repeated Games and the Role of Initial Doubt 7.7 Imperfect Observability of Moves 7.8 Repeated Wines in Large Decentralized Groups 7.9 Repeated Games with Incomplete Information 7.10 Continuous Time 7.11 Evolutionary Simulation of Repeated Games Exercises 8. Bargaining and Cooperation in Two-Person Games 8.1 Noncooperative Foundations of Cooperative Game Theory 8.2 Two-Person Bargaining Problems and the Nash Bargaining Solution 8.3 Interpersonal Comparisons of Weighted Utility 8.4 Transferable Utility 8.5 Rational Threats 8.6 Other Bargaining Solutions 8.7 An Alternating-Offer Bargaining Game 8.8 An Alternating-Offer Game with Incomplete Information 8.9 A Discrete Alternating-Offer Game 8.10 Renegotiation Exercises 9. Coalitions in Cooperative Games 9.1 Introduction to Coalitional Analysis 9.2 Characteristic Functions with Transferable Utility 9.3 The Core 9.4 The Shapkey Value 9.5 Values with Cooperation Structures 9.6 Other Solution Concepts 9.7 Colational Games with Nontransferable Utility 9.8 Cores without Transferable Utility 9.9 Values without Transferable Utility Exercises Bibliographic Note 10. Cooperation under Uncertainty 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Concepts of Efficiency 10.3 An Example 10.4 Ex Post Inefficiency and Subsequent Oilers 10.5 Computing Incentive-Efficient Mechanisms 10.6 Inscrutability and Durability 10.7 Mechanism Selection by an Informed Principal 10.8 Neutral Bargaining Solutions 10.9 Dynamic Matching Processes with Incomplete Information Exercises Bibliography Index

博弈论 : 矛盾冲突分析 = Game theory : analysis of conflict

Abbreviated Contents Figures and Tables Preface Introduction and Examples Concepts Relevant to Information Behavior Models, Paradigms, and Theories in the Study of Information Behavior Methods for Studying Information Behavior Research Results and Reflections Appendix: Glossary Appendix: Questions for Discussion and Application References Index

Looking for Information: A Survey of Research on Information Seeking, Needs and Behavior

The great thinkers who influenced the contemporary field of political communication were preoccupied with understanding the political, social, psychological, and economic transformations in modern industrial society. But societies have changed so dramatically since the time of these landmark contributions that one must question the continuing relevance of paradigms drawn from them. To cite but a few examples, people have become increasingly detached from overarching institutions such as public schools, political parties, and civic groups, which at one time provided a shared context for receiving and interpreting messages. What are the implications of this detachment on how people respond to media messages? Information channels have proliferated and simultaneously become more individualized. Is it still relevant to conceive of ‘‘mass media’’ or has that concept been made obsolete by audience fragmentation and isolation from the public sphere? Does this new environment foreshadow a return to a time of minimal effects? If we are looking at a new minimal effects era, how can we distinguish it from the last such period? Retracing some of the intellectual origins of the field may help us identify the fundamental changes in society and communication technologies that are affecting the composition of audiences, the delivery of information, and the experience of politics itself. In particular, we are concerned with the growing disjuncture between the prevailing research strategies and the sociotechnological context of political communication, which may give rise to unproductive battles over findings (Donsbach, 2006). To the extent that research paradigms fail to reflect prevailing social and technological patterns, the validity of results will be in serious question. Consider just one case in point: the famous earlier era of ‘‘minimal effects’’ that emerged from studies done in the 1940s and early 1950s (Klapper, 1960). The underlying context for this scholarship consisted of a premass communication media system and relatively dense memberships in a group-based society networked through political parties, churches, unions, and service organizations (Putnam, 2000). At this time, scholars concluded that media messages were filtered through social reference processes as described in the two-step flow model proposed by Katz and Lazarsfeld (1955; Bennett & Manheim, 2006). Although the classic study by Lang

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A New Era of Minimal Effects? The Changing Foundations of Political Communication

The psychology of social norms.

This article is about causal explanations for the way journalists report the news. In its first part, the article reviews traditional and current models or theories of journalists’ news decisions, ...

Psychology of News Decisions Factors behind Journalists’ Professional Behavior

International Encyclopedia of Communication

PART ONE: HISTORY, PHILOSOPHY OF PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH The Public and Public Opinion in Political Theories - Vincent Price The Deliberating Public and Deliberative Polls - Peter Neijens The News as a Reflection of Public Opinion - Thomas E. Patterson Advocacy: Alternative Expressions of Public Opinion - Kurt Lang & Gladys Engel Lang Studying Elites vs. Mass Opinion - Ursula Hoffmann-Lange The Internet as a New Platform for Expressing Opinions and as a New Public Sphere - Bernhard Debatin Popular Communication and Public Opinion - Debra Merskin & Jonathan David Tankel The Historical Roots of Public Opinion Research - Anthony Oberschall Mass-observation and Modern Public Opinion Research - Murray Goot The Start of Modern Public Opinion Research - Hans L. Zetterberg Public Opinion Research in Emerging Democracies - Robert Mattes PART TWO: THEORIES OF PUBLIC OPINION FORMATION AND CHANGE - Penny S. Visser, Allyson Holbrook & Jon A. Krosnick Knowledge and Attitudes Conceptions of Attitudes and Opinions - Roger Tourangeau & Mirta Galesic Theories on the Perception of Social Reality - William P. Eveland Carroll J. Glynn Pluralistic Ignorance and Nonattitudes - Patricia Moy Spiral of Silence Theory - Dietram A. Scheufele Public Opinion and the Third-person Effect - Albert C. Gunther, Richard M. Perloff & Yariv Tsfati Effects of the News Media on Public Opinion - Hans Mathias Kepplinger Agenda-setting, Framing and Priming - Patrick Roessler PART THREE: METHODOLOGY The Methodological Strengths and Weaknesses of Survey Research - Herbert Weisberg The Uses and Misuses of Polls - Michael W. Traugott Face-to-face Surveys - Jennifer Dykema, Danna Basson & Nora Cate Schaeffer Surveys by Telephone - Paul J. Lavrakas Self-administered Paper Questionnaires - Don A. Dillman & Nicholas L. Parsons Internet Surveys - Vasja Vehovar, Katja Lozar Manfreda & Gasper Koren Different Survey Modes and International Comparisons - Yang-chih Fu & Yun-han Chu Sampling - Colm O'Muircheartaigh Survey Non-response - Adam J. Berinsky Split ballots as an Experimental Approach to Public Opinion Research - Thomas Petersen Panel Surveys - Jochen Hansen Focus Groups and Public Opinion - David L. Morgan & Collin E. Fellows Content Analyses and Public Opinion Research - Winfried Schulz Designing Reliable and valid Questionnaires - Kenneth A. Rasinski The Psychology of Survey Response - Norbert Schwarz The use of Scales in Surveys - Michael Hader The use of Visual Materials in Surveys - Thomas Petersen Validation Studies - Michael W. Traugott Identifying Value Clusters in Societies - Hans L. Zetterberg PART FOUR: THE SOCIAL AND POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT OF PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH The Legal Status of Public Opinion Research in the World - Wolfgang Donsbach & Uwe Hartung Attitudes of the Public Towards Public Opinion Research and Polling - Anne Hildreth Attitudes of Journalists Toward Public Opinion Research - David H. Weaver Codes of Ethics and Standards in Survey Research - Tom W. Smith Archiving Poll Data - Wolfgang Jagodzinski & Meinhard Moschner The News Media's use of Opinion Polls - Frank Brettschneider The use of Surveys by Governments and Politicians - Robert M. Eisinger The use of Public Opinion Research in Propaganda - Michael Kunczik & Eva Johanna Schweitzer The Effects of Published Polls on Citizens - Sibylle Hardmeier PART FIVE: SPECIAL FIELDS OF APPLICATION The use of Surveys as Legal Evidence - Anne Niedermann Public Opinion and the Economy - Lutz M. Hagen Marketing Research - Humphrey Taylor Social Indicators and the Quality of Life - John P. Robinson, Kenneth C. Land & Steven Martin Assessing Long-term Value Changes in Societies - Ottar Hellevik Exit Polls and Pre-election Polls - Kathllen A. Frankovic International Comparative Surveys - Marta Lagos Their Purpose, Content and Methodological Challenges The use of Voter Research in Campaigns - Fred Steeper

The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research

Despite its roots in ancient rhetoric communication as an academic field and discipline has a relatively young history. Starting in the first half of the 20th century it has seen an enormous growth over the last 10-30 years. However, the field has still not fully found its identity and borders. There are many reasons for this, among them are: an object that is almost without boundaries, an ongoing diversification and specialization of the field, the characterization of communications as an "integrative" or "synoptical-discipline" which uses theories and methods from other disciplines, epistemological and methodological debates, and 4 the loss of normative orientation which helps to identify relevant research or "research in the public interest". The article discusses these problems along several theses and antitheses about the state of the field and suggests a clear normative orientation.

The Identity of Communication Research

Let me warn you first: Any account of a state of a discipline is limited in scope and is biased. It is limited because the field grows faster than the capacity of the average scholar to process and digest new information and thus keep an overview. And it is— by default—biased because people differ in what they think is good and what they think is relevant research, thus disagreeing on what is the ‘‘right way to scientific knowledge.’’ I believe there is a right way but not everyone in this room will share it. Thus, as scholars, we still help to confirm one of the earliest hypotheses in communication research: that predispositions shape the perception of reality. Why should we be different from our subjects in experiments? Therefore, take cognitive dissonance theory as my major excuse for the following. I have organized my talk in theses and countertheses because this reflects best the ambivalent state of our field.

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Wolfgang Donsbach

Papers

Psychology of News Decisions Factors behind Journalists’ Professional Behavior

International Encyclopedia of Communication

The SAGE Handbook of Public Opinion Research

The Identity of Communication Research

The Identity of Communication Research