Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Temporal and spatial evolution of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the Loess Plateau under climate change from 2001 to 2050.

Climate Change over China in the 21st Century as Simulated by BCC_CSM1.1-RegCM4.0

Potential changes in Koppen-Geiger climate zones over southern Africa (Africa south of 22 °S) under future climate change are investigated using an ensemble of high-resolution projections of a regional climate model. The projections are performed under the A2 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and changes are presented for those times in the future when the increase in global average surface temperature reaches thresholds of 1, 2, and 3 °C, relative to the present-day baseline climatology. Widespread shifts in climate regimes are projected, of which the southern and eastern expansion of the hot desert and hot steppe zones is the most prominent. From occupying 33.1 and 19.4 % of southern Africa under present-day climate, these regions are projected to occupy between 47.3 and 59.7 % (hot desert zone) and 24.9 and 29.9 % (hot steppe zone) of the region in a future world where the global temperature has increased by 3 °C. The cold desert and cold steppe zones are projected to decrease correspondingly. The temperate regions of eastern South Africa, the Cape south coast, and winter rainfall region of the southwestern Cape are also projected to contract. An expansion of the hot steppe zone into the cold steppe and temperate zones may favor the intrusion of trees (and therefore the savanna biome) into the most pristine grasslands of southern Africa. However, the correlative climate-vegetation approach of using projected changes in Koppen-Geiger zones to infer future vegetation patterns is of limited value in the savanna complex of southern Africa, where complex feedbacks occur between carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, trees, C4 grasses, fire, and climate. The present-day temperate Cape Fynbos regime may come under increasing pressure as the encompassing temperate zone is invaded mainly from the east by the hot steppe climate regime under climate change, with the incidence of Fynbos fires also becoming more likely in a generally warmer and drier climate.

Shifts in Köppen-Geiger climate zones over southern Africa in relation to key global temperature goals

A high-resolution regional climate model is used to simulate climate change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The model is driven at the grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the outputs of 50-km-resolution simulations. The results show that the models can capture the spatial and temporal distributions of the surface air temperature over the TP. The so-called double-nested method has a higher horizontal resolution and represents more spatial details. For example, the temperature simulations from the double-nested method reflect the observations better compared to the 50-km-resolution models. This is mainly due to the fact that topographical effects of complex terrains are detected better at higher resolution. Although both models can represent the basic patterns of precipitation, the simulated results are not as good as those of temperature. In the future, significant warming seems to develop over the TP under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Greater increases occur in December–Fe...

Double-Nested Dynamical Downscaling Experiments over the Tibetan Plateau and Their Projection of Climate Change under Two RCP Scenarios

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/16742834.2018.1471578

Future changes in thermal comfort conditions over China based on multi-RegCM4 simulations

Projected Changes in K?ppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

Asian Climate Change in Response to Four Global Warming Targets

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/16742834.2020.1697615

Assessing the sensitivity of RegCM4 to cumulus and ocean surface schemes over the Southeast Asia domain of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment

Wu Jia

Papers

Future changes in thermal comfort conditions over China based on multi-RegCM4 simulations

Projected Changes in K?ppen Climate Types in the 21st Century over China

Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

Asian Climate Change in Response to Four Global Warming Targets

Assessing the sensitivity of RegCM4 to cumulus and ocean surface schemes over the Southeast Asia domain of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment