China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

http://re.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/The%20impacts%20of%20climate%20change%20on%20water.pdf

The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China

Climate Change 1995 is a scientific assessment that was generated by more than 1 000 contributors from over 50 nations. It was jointly co-ordinated through two international agencies; the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme. The assessment was completed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with a primary aim of reviewing the current state of knowledge concerning the impacts of climate change on physical and ecological systems, human health, and socioeconomic factors. The second aim was to review the available information on the technical and economic feasibility of the potential mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Climate Change 1995

Contributing Authors: J. Box (USA), D. Bromwich (USA), R. Brown (Canada), J.G. Cogley (Canada), J. Comiso (USA), M. Dyurgerov (Sweden, USA), B. Fitzharris (New Zealand), O. Frauenfeld (USA, Austria), H. Fricker (USA), G. H. Gudmundsson (UK, Iceland), C. Haas (Germany), J.O. Hagen (Norway), C. Harris (UK), L. Hinzman (USA), R. Hock (Sweden), M. Hoelzle (Switzerland), P. Huybrechts (Belgium), K. Isaksen (Norway), P. Jansson (Sweden), A. Jenkins (UK), Ian Joughin (USA), C. Kottmeier (Germany), R. Kwok (USA), S. Laxon (UK), S. Liu (China), D. MacAyeal (USA), H. Melling (Canada), A. Ohmura (Switzerland), A. Payne (UK), T. Prowse (Canada), B.H. Raup (USA), C. Raymond (USA), E. Rignot (USA), I. Rigor (USA), D. Robinson (USA), D. Rothrock (USA), S.C. Scherrer (Switzerland), S. Smith (Canada), O. Solomina (Russian Federation), D. Vaughan (UK), J. Walsh (USA), A. Worby (Australia), T. Yamada (Japan), L. Zhao (China)

Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground

https://faculty.washington.edu/stevehar/rangeland%20degradation.pdf

Rangeland degradation on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau: A review of the evidence of its magnitude and causes

Palaeo-moisture evolution in monsoonal Central Asia during the last 50,000 years

Characteristics of late Quaternary monsoonal glaciation on the Tibetan Plateau and in East Asia

Reconstruction of the 30–40 ka bp enhanced Indian monsoon climate based on geological records from the Tibetan Plateau

Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (temperate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme Continental (polar) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km2) respectively. Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Maxima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3℃on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present total glacier area in western China. it is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.4-1.2, 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% and 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%-67% in 2100 in China.

Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

The climatic and environmental variations since the Last Interglaciation are reconstructed based on the study of the upper 268 m of the 309-m-long Guliya ice core. Five stages can be distinguished since the Last Interglaciation from the δ 18O record in the Guliya ice core: Stage 1 (Deglaciation), Stage 2 (the Last Glacial Maximum), Stage 3 (interstadial), Stage 4 (interstadial in the early glacial maximum) and Stage 5 (the Last Interglaciation). Stage 5 can be divided further into 5 substages; a, b, c, d, e. The δ 18O record in the Guliya ice core indicates clearly the close correlation between the temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau and the solar activities. The study indicates that the solar activity is a main forcing to the climatic variation on the Tibetan Plateau. Through a comparison of the ice core record in Guliya with that in the Greenland and the Antarctic, it can be found that the variation of large temperature variation events in different parts of the world is generally the same, but the variation amplitude of temperature is different.

Climate variation since the Last Interglaciation recorded in the Guliya ice core

On the basis of ice core and meteorological data from the Qinghai-Tibetan (Q-T) Plateau, this article focuses on the discussion of the problems related to the sensitivity of temporal and spatial changes of the climate in high-altitude regions, particularly in the Q-T Plateau. The features of abrupt climatic changes of the past 100 ka, 2 000 a and recent years indicate that the amplitude of these changes in the Q-T Plateau was obviously larger than that in low-altitude regions. The scope of temperature change above 6 000 m in the Q-T Plateau between glacial and interglacial stages could reach over 10°C, but only about 4°C in low-elevation regions close to sea level. During the last 2 000 a, the amplitude of temperature changes at Guliya (over 6 000 m a.s.l.) in the Q-T Plateau reached 7°C, in comparison with 2°C in eastern China at low altitude. In the present age, apparent differences of climatic warming have been observed in the Q-T Plateau, indicating that the warming in high-elevation regions is much higher than that in low-elevation regions. The temperature in over 3 500 m regions of the Q-T Plateau have been increasing at a rate of 0.25×101/a in recent 30 years, but almost no change has taken place in the regions below 500 m. Thus, we concluded that high-altitude regions are more sensitive to climatic changes than the low-altitude regions.

Yafeng Shi

Papers

Characteristics of late Quaternary monsoonal glaciation on the Tibetan Plateau and in East Asia

Reconstruction of the 30–40 ka bp enhanced Indian monsoon climate based on geological records from the Tibetan Plateau

Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

Climate variation since the Last Interglaciation recorded in the Guliya ice core

Amplitude of climatic changes in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau