Showing papers by "Yaseen M. Arabi published in 2003"

Assessment of six mortality prediction models in patients admitted with severe sepsis and septic shock to the intensive care unit: a prospective cohort study

Abstract: Introduction We conducted the present study to assess the validity of mortality prediction systems in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with severe sepsis and septic shock. We included Acute Physiology and Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Mortality Probability Model (MPM) II0 and MPM II24 in our evaluation. In addition, SAPS II and MPM II24 were customized for septic patients in a previous study, and the customized versions were included in this evaluation. Materials and method This cohort, prospective, observational study was conducted in a tertiary care medical/surgical ICU. Consecutive patients meeting the diagnostic criteria for severe sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 hours of ICU admission between March 1999 and August 2001 were included. The data necessary for mortality prediction were collected prospectively as part of the ongoing ICU database. Predicted and actual mortality rates, and standardized mortality ratio were calculated. Calibration was assessed using Lemeshow-Hosmer goodness of fit C-statistic. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The overall mortality prediction was adequate for all six systems because none of the standardized mortality ratios differed significantly from 1. Calibration was inadequate for APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM II0 and MPM II24. However, the customized version of SAPS II exhibited significantly improved calibration (C-statistic for SAPS II 23.6 (P = 0.003) and for customized SAPS II 11.5 (P = 0.18)). Discrimination was best for customized MPM II24 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.826), followed by MPM II 24 and customized SAPS II. Conclusion Although general ICU mortality system models had accurate overall mortality prediction, they had poor calibration. Customization of SAPS II and, to a lesser extent, MPM II 24 improved calibration. The customized model may be a useful tool when evaluating outcomes in patients with sepsis.

Improving resource utilization in the intensive care units. A challenge for Saudi Hospitals.

Abstract: In the face of increasing demand of intensive care services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as well as the high cost of delivering such services, systematic steps must be undertaken in order to ensure optional utilization and fair allocation of resources. Strategies start prior to intensive care units (ICU) admission by the proper selection of patients who are likely to benefit from ICU. Less resource-demanding alternatives, such as intermediate care units, should be used for low-risk patients. Do-not-resuscitate status in patients with no meaningful chance of recovery will prevent futile admissions to ICUs. Measures known to improve the efficiency of care in the ICU must be implemented, including hiring full-time qualified intensivists, switching open units to closed ones and the introduction of certain evidence-base driven management protocols. On discharge, the intermediate care units again play a role as less expensive alternative transitional area for patients who are not stable enough to go to general ward. Measures to reduce re-admissions to ICU must also be implemented. Improving ICU resource utilization requires teamwork not only the intensivists but also the administrators and other health care providers.