Forecasting electricity consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, neural networks and least squares support vector machines

A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets

Improving forecasting accuracy of daily enterprise electricity consumption using a random forest based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Graphical abstractDisplay Omitted HighlightsWe predict maximum and minimum day stock prices of power companies.The methodology is based on attribute selection and time series prediction.The most relevant attributes are determined by correlation analysis.The actual time series prediction is carried out by neural networks.The proposed methodology provides very good results. Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine future prices of stocks, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series is an important task for guiding investors' decisions and trades. Nonetheless, the prediction of prices by means of a time series is not trivial and it requires a thorough analysis of indexes, variables and other data. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the non-linearity of the time series is a pronounced characteristic, and this immediately affects the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper aims at proposing a methodology that forecasts the maximum and minimum day stock prices of three Brazilian power distribution companies, which are traded in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange BM&FBovespa. When compared to the other papers already published in the literature, one of the main contributions and novelty of this paper is the forecast of the range of closing prices of Brazilian power distribution companies' stocks. As a result of its application, investors may be able to define threshold values for their stock trades. Moreover, such a methodology may be of great interest to home brokers who do not possess ample knowledge to invest in such companies. The proposed methodology is based on the calculation of distinct features to be analysed by means of attribute selection, defining the most relevant attributes to predict the maximum and minimum day stock prices of each company. Then, the actual prediction was carried out by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which had their performances evaluated by means of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) calculations. The proposed methodology for addressing the problem of prediction of maximum and minimum day stock prices for Brazilian distribution companies is effective. In addition, these results were only possible to be achieved due to the combined use of attribute selection by correlation analysis and ANNs.

Maximum and minimum stock price forecasting of Brazilian power distribution companies based on artificial neural networks

Trading System based on the use of technical analysis: A computational experiment

This research applies a market profile to establish an indicator to classify the correlation between the variation in price and value with the stock trends. The indicator and technical index are neural network architecture parameters that assist to extrapolate the market logic and knowledge rules that influence the TAIEX futures market structure via an integral assessment of physical quantities. To implement the theory of market profile on neural network architecture, this study proposes qualitative and quantitative methods to compute a market profile indicator. In addition, the indicator considers the variation and relevance between long-term and short-term trends by incorporating the long-term and short-term change in market in its calculation. An assessment of forecasting performance on different calculation approaches of market profile indicator and technical analysis is conducted to differentiate their accuracies and profitability. The experimental results show the qualitative market profile indicator outperforms the quantitative approach in a short-term forecast period. In contrast, the quantitative market profile indicator has a better trend-predicting ability, thus it is more effective in the long-term forecast period. The integration of market profile and technical analysis surpasses technical analysis as a neural network architecture parameter by effectively improving forecasting performance and profitability.

https://ir.nctu.edu.tw:443/bitstream/11536/24386/1/000335629500010.pdf

Yi Chun Kuo

Papers

Applying market profile theory to forecast Taiwan Index Futures market

WITHDRAWN: Applying market profile theory to forecast Taiwan index futures market