As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

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Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

Pandemic influenza virus has its origins in avian influenza viruses. The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is already panzootic in poultry, with attendant economic consequences. It continues to cross species barriers to infect humans and other mammals, often with fatal outcomes. Therefore, H5N1 virus has rightly received attention as a potential pandemic threat. However, it is noted that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 did not arise from highly pathogenic influenza viruses, and the next pandemic may well arise from a low-pathogenicity virus. The rationale for particular concern about an H5N1 pandemic is not its inevitability but its potential severity. An H5N1 pandemic is an event of low probability but one of high human health impact and poses a predicament for public health. Here, we review the ecology and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses, assess the pandemic risk, and address aspects of human H5N1 disease in relation to its epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, diagnosis, and management.

http://www.hkupasteur.hku.hk/publications/pdf/Peiris_et_al_2007.pdf

Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1): a Threat to Human Health

Since 2003, more than 380 cases of H5N1 influenza virus infection of humans have been reported. Although the resultant disease in these cases was often severe or fatal, transmission of avian influenza viruses between humans is rare. The precise nature of the barrier blocking human-to-human spread is unknown. It is clear, however, that efficient human-to-human transmission of an antigenically novel influenza virus would result in a pandemic. Influenza viruses with changes at amino acids 627 or 701 of the PB2 protein have been isolated from human cases of highly pathogenic H5 and H7 avian influenza. Herein, we have used the guinea pig model to test the contributions of PB2 627 and 701 to mammalian transmission. To this end, viruses carrying mutations at these positions were generated in the A/Panama/2007/99 (H3N2) and A/Viet Nam/1203/04 (H5N1) backgrounds. In the context of either rPan99 or rVN1203, mutation of lysine 627 to the avian consensus residue glutamic acid was found to decrease transmission. Introduction of an asparagine at position 701, in conjunction with the K627E mutation, resulted in a phenotype more similar to that of the parental strains, suggesting that this residue can compensate for the lack of 627K in terms of increasing transmission in mammals. Thus, our data show that PB2 amino acids 627 and 701 are determinants of mammalian inter-host transmission in diverse virus backgrounds.

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Transmission of Influenza Virus in a Mammalian Host Is Increased by PB2 Amino Acids 627K or 627E/701N

In this study, we explored the molecular basis determining the virulence of H5N1 avian influenza viruses in mammalian hosts by comparing two viruses, A/Duck/Guangxi/12/03 (DK/12) and A/Duck/Guangxi/27/03 (DK/27), which are genetically similar but differ in their pathogenicities in mice. To assess the genetic basis for this difference in virulence, we used reverse genetics to generate a series of reassortants and mutants of these two viruses. We found that a single-amino-acid substitution of serine for proline at position 42 (P42S) in the NS1 protein dramatically increased the virulence of the DK/12 virus in mice, whereas the substitution of proline for serine at the same position (S42P) completely attenuated the DK/27 virus. We further demonstrated that the amino acid S42 of NS1 is critical for the H5N1 influenza virus to antagonize host cell interferon induction and for the NS1 protein to prevent the double-stranded RNA-mediated activation of the NF-κB pathway and the IRF-3 pathway. Our results indicate that the NS1 protein is critical for the pathogenicity of H5N1 influenza viruses in mammalian hosts and that the amino acid S42 of NS1 plays a key role in undermining the antiviral immune response of the host cell.

A Single-Amino-Acid Substitution in the NS1 Protein Changes the Pathogenicity of H5N1 Avian Influenza Viruses in Mice

We surveyed the genetic diversity among avian influenza virus (AIV) in wild birds, comprising 167 complete viral genomes from 14 bird species sampled in four locations across the United States. These isolates represented 29 type A influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) subtype combinations, with up to 26% of isolates showing evidence of mixed subtype infection. Through a phylogenetic analysis of the largest data set of AIV genomes compiled to date, we were able to document a remarkably high rate of genome reassortment, with no clear pattern of gene segment association and occasional inter-hemisphere gene segment migration and reassortment. From this, we propose that AIV in wild birds forms transient “genome constellations,” continually reshuffled by reassortment, in contrast to the spread of a limited number of stable genome constellations that characterizes the evolution of mammalian-adapted influenza A viruses.

/pdf/the-evolutionary-genetics-and-emergence-of-avian-influenza-31jw0wan21.pdf

The Evolutionary Genetics and Emergence of Avian Influenza Viruses in Wild Birds

H5N1 influenza A viruses are widely distributed among poultry in Asia, but until recently, only a limited number of wild birds were affected. During late April through June 2005, an outbreak of H5N1 virus infection occurred among wild birds at Qinghai Lake in China. Here, we describe the features of this outbreak. First identified in bar-headed geese, the disease soon spread to other avian species populating the lake. Sequence analysis of 15 viruses representing six avian species and collected at different times during the outbreak revealed four different H5N1 genotypes. Most of the isolates possessed lysine at position 627 in the PB2 protein, a residue known to be associated with virulence in mice and adaptation to humans. However, neither of the two index viruses possessed this residue. All of the viruses tested were pathogenic in mice, with the exception of one index virus. We also tested the replication of two viruses isolated during the Qinghai Lake outbreak and one unrelated duck H5N1 virus in rhesus macaques. The Qinghai Lake viruses did not replicate efficiently in these animals, producing no evidence of disease other than transient fever, while the duck virus replicated in multiple organs and caused symptoms of respiratory illness. Importantly, H5N1 viruses isolated in Mongolia, Russia, Inner Mongolia, and the Liaoning Province of China after August 2005 were genetically closely related to one of the genotypes isolated during the Qinghai outbreak, suggesting the dominant nature of this genotype and underscoring the need for worldwide intensive surveillance to minimize its devastating consequences.

Yingxiang Sun

Papers

Properties and dissemination of H5N1 viruses isolated during an influenza outbreak in migratory waterfowl in western China