[신간의 별자리x] 우리/미술, 그리고 ‘슬픔의 박물관’

According to W. Edwards Deming, American companies require nothing less than a transformation of management style and of governmental relations with industry. In Out of the Crisis, originally published in 1982, Deming offers a theory of management based on his famous 14 Points for Management. Management's failure to plan for the future, he claims, brings about loss of market, which brings about loss of jobs. Management must be judged not only by the quarterly dividend, but by innovative plans to stay in business, protect investment, ensure future dividends, and provide more jobs through improved product and service. In simple, direct language, he explains the principles of management transformation and how to apply them.

Out of the Crisis

Economic Control of Quality of Manufactured Product.

The Random Character of Stock Market Prices.

Here are two books on a topic new to Technometrics: statistical and mathematical demography. The first author of Applied Mathematical Demography wrote the first two editions of this book alone. The second edition was published in 1985. Professor Keyfritz noted in the Preface (p. vii) that at age 90 he had no interest in doing another edition; however, the publisher encouraged him to find a coauthor. The result is an additional focus for the book in the world of biology that makes it much more relevant for the sciences. The book is now part of the publisher’s series on Statistics for Biology and Health. Much of it, of course, focuses on the many aspects of human populations. The new material focuses on mature population models, the particular focus of the new author (see, e.g., Caswell 2000). As one might expect from a book that was originally written in the 1970s, it does not include a lot of information on statistical computing. The new book by Alho and Spencer is focused on putting a better emphasis on statistics in the discipline of demography (Preface, p. vii). It is part of the publisher’s Series in Statistics. The authors are both statisticians, so the focus is on statistics as used for demographic problems. The authors are targeting human applications, so their perspective on science does not extend any further than epidemiology. The book actually strikes a good balance between statistical tools and demographic applications. The authors use the first two chapters to teach statisticians about the concepts of demography. The next four chapters are very similar to the statistics content found in introductory books on survival analysis, such as the recent book by Kleinbaum and Klein (2005), reported by Ziegel (2006). The next three chapters are focused on various aspects of forecasting demographic rates. The book concludes with chapters focusing on three areas of applications: errors in census numbers, financial applications, and small-area estimates.

Univariate Discrete Distributions

We discuss the two-attribute warranty policy in which two types of warranty characteristics, such as product age and mileage in the y-year-m-mile protection plan in the automobile industry, are employed simultaneously as criteria in determining the warranty eligibility of a failed product. Based on the Poisson regression model and von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory, we develop two kinds of two-attribute warranty policies: a fixed two-attribute warranty policy in which all customers are offered the same warranty plan, and a flexible two-attribute warranty policy in which customers are permitted to choose any warranty plan among the numerous plans furnished by the producer. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the procedure for determining the optimal warranty price in the fixed two-attribute warranty model and for generating a set of warranty plans for the same warranty price in the flexible warranty model. It appears desirable from both the producers' and consumers' viewpoints to convert the classical single-attribute warranty policy into a fixed two-attribute policy or, even further, into a flexible two-attribute policy. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.

A poisson regression model for two‐attribute warranty policies

Optimal pricing and ordering policies for perishable commodities

In the so-called two-attribute warranty policy, two types of warranty criteria, such as the age and mileage of an automobile, are employed simultaneously to determine the eligibility of a warranty claim. The authors propose in the paper several decision models that estimate the expected total cost incurred under various types of two-attribute warranty policies. They also perform a sensitivity analysis to study the effects of several model parameters, such as the discount rate, the product usage rate, and the warranty terms, on the total warranty cost.

http://isds.bus.lsu.edu/chun/1_research/journals/1999-ieee.pdf

Cost analysis of two-attribute warranty policies based on the product usage rate

Determining the optimal warranty price based on the producer's and customers' risk preferences

In most cases, the R&D project selection problem is concerned with how to evaluate and identify the best subset of projects under some resource constraints. In this paper, we consider the sequential decision problem of optimally sequencing a set of projects which must be undertaken sequentially over time. We derive the optimal ordering strategy for two special cases, (1) a series system of tasks in which the selection process is terminated as soon as one of the tasks is failed, and (2) a parallel system of alternatives in which the selection process continues until any of the alternatives is completed successfully. We further consider the precedence restriction in a series system of tasks which specifies that, for some technological or budgetary constraints, a certain task must be undertaken before another. In a parallel system of alternatives, we also investigate the availability condition under which a certain alternative will not be available if not selected within a certain period of time. >

Young H. Chun

Papers

A poisson regression model for two‐attribute warranty policies

Optimal pricing and ordering policies for perishable commodities

Cost analysis of two-attribute warranty policies based on the product usage rate

Determining the optimal warranty price based on the producer's and customers' risk preferences

Sequential decisions under uncertainty in the R&D project selection problem