Lionel A. Mandell, Richard G. Wunderink, Antonio Anzueto, John G. Bartlett, G. Douglas Campbell, Nathan C. Dean, Scott F. Dowell, Thomas M. File, Jr. Daniel M. Musher, Michael S. Niederman, Antonio Torres, and Cynthia G. Whitney McMaster University Medical School, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, Illinois; University of Texas Health Science Center and South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio, and Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas; Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland; Division of Pulmonary, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine, University of Mississippi School of Medicine, Jackson; Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, LDS Hospital, and University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia; Northeastern Ohio Universities College of Medicine, Rootstown, and Summa Health System, Akron, Ohio; State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, and Department of Medicine, Winthrop University Hospital, Mineola, New York; and Cap de Servei de Pneumologia i Allergia Respiratoria, Institut Clinic del Torax, Hospital Clinic de Barcelona, Facultat de Medicina, Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Investigacions Biomediques August Pi i Sunyer, CIBER CB06/06/0028, Barcelona, Spain.

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Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society Consensus Guidelines on the Management of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Adults

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.

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Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses cause severe disease in humans, but the basis for their virulence remains unclear. In vitro and animal studies indicate that high and disseminated viral replication is important for disease pathogenesis. Laboratory experiments suggest that virus-induced cytokine dysregulation may contribute to disease severity. To assess the relevance of these findings for human disease, we performed virological and immunological studies in 18 individuals with H5N1 and 8 individuals infected with human influenza virus subtypes. Influenza H5N1 infection in humans is characterized by high pharyngeal virus loads and frequent detection of viral RNA in rectum and blood. Viral RNA in blood was present only in fatal H5N1 cases and was associated with higher pharyngeal viral loads. We observed low peripheral blood T-lymphocyte counts and high chemokine and cytokine levels in H5N1-infected individuals, particularly in those who died, and these correlated with pharyngeal viral loads. Genetic characterization of H5N1 viruses revealed mutations in the viral polymerase complex associated with mammalian adaptation and virulence. Our observations indicate that high viral load, and the resulting intense inflammatory responses, are central to influenza H5N1 pathogenesis. The focus of clinical management should be on preventing this intense cytokine response, by early diagnosis and effective antiviral treatment.

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Fatal outcome of human influenza A (H5N1) is associated with high viral load and hypercytokinemia

Influenza viruses cause annual epidemics and occasional pandemics that have claimed the lives of millions. The emergence of new strains will continue to pose challenges to public health and the scientific communities. A prime example is the recent emergence of swine-origin H1N1 viruses that have transmitted to and spread among humans, resulting in outbreaks internationally. Efforts to control these outbreaks and real-time monitoring of the evolution of this virus should provide us with invaluable information to direct infectious disease control programmes and to improve understanding of the factors that determine viral pathogenicity and/or transmissibility.

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Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus.

The writing committee consisted of the following: John H. Beigel, M.D., National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md.; Jeremy Farrar, D.Phil., Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Aye Maung Han, M.B., B.S., Department of Child Health, Institute of Medicine, Yangon, Myanmar; Frederick G. Hayden, M.D. (rapporteur), University of Virginia, Charlottesville; Randy Hyer, M.D., World Health Organization, Geneva; Menno D. de Jong, M.D., Ph.D., Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Sorasak Lochindarat, M.D., Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand; Nguyen Thi Kim Tien, M.D., Ph.D., Pasteur Institute, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Nguyen Tran Hien, M.D., Ph.D., National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi; Tran Tinh Hien, M.D., Ph.D., Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; Angus Nicoll, M.Sc., Health Protection Agency, London; Sok Touch, M.D., Ministry of Health, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; and Kwok-Yung Yuen, M.D., University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. Address reprint requests to Dr. Hayden at the Department of Internal Medicine, P.O. Box 800473, University of Virginia Health Sciences Center, Charlottesville, VA 22908, or at fgh@virginia.edu.

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Avian influenza A (H5N1) infection in humans

Influenza A (H5N1) is endemic in poultry across much of Southeast Asia, but limited information exists on the distinctive features of the few human cases. In Thailand, we instituted nationwide surveillance and tested respiratory specimens by polymerase chain reaction and viral isolation. From January 1 to March 31, 2004, we reviewed 610 reports and identified 12 confirmed and 21 suspected cases. All 12 confirmed case-patients resided in villages that experienced abnormal chicken deaths, 9 lived in households whose backyard chickens died, and 8 reported direct contact with dead chickens. Seven were children <14 years of age. Fever preceded dyspnea by a median of 5 days, and lymphopenia significantly predicted acute respiratory distress syndrome development and death. Among hundreds of thousands of potential human cases of influenza A (H5N1) in Asia, a history of direct contact with sick poultry, young age, pneumonia and lymphopenia, and progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome should prompt specific laboratory testing for H5 influenza.

Yutthasak Osotthanakorn

Papers

Human Disease from Influenza A (H5N1), Thailand, 2004