Concept drift primarily refers to an online supervised learning scenario when the relation between the input data and the target variable changes over time. Assuming a general knowledge of supervised learning in this article, we characterize adaptive learning processes; categorize existing strategies for handling concept drift; overview the most representative, distinct, and popular techniques and algorithms; discuss evaluation methodology of adaptive algorithms; and present a set of illustrative applications. The survey covers the different facets of concept drift in an integrated way to reflect on the existing scattered state of the art. Thus, it aims at providing a comprehensive introduction to the concept drift adaptation for researchers, industry analysts, and practitioners.

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A survey on concept drift adaptation

Internet of Things (IoT) brings more than an explosive proliferation of endpoints. It is disruptive in several ways. In this chapter we examine those disruptions, and propose a hierarchical distributed architecture that extends from the edge of the network to the core nicknamed Fog Computing. In particular, we pay attention to a new dimension that IoT adds to Big Data and Analytics: a massively distributed number of sources at the edge.

Fog Computing: A Platform for Internet of Things and Analytics

Some energy services and industrial processes-such as long-distance freight transport, air travel, highly reliable electricity, and steel and cement manufacturing-are particularly difficult to provide without adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Rapidly growing demand for these services, combined with long lead times for technology development and long lifetimes of energy infrastructure, make decarbonization of these services both essential and urgent. We examine barriers and opportunities associated with these difficult-to-decarbonize services and processes, including possible technological solutions and research and development priorities. A range of existing technologies could meet future demands for these services and processes without net addition of CO2 to the atmosphere, but their use may depend on a combination of cost reductions via research and innovation, as well as coordinated deployment and integration of operations across currently discrete energy industries.

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Net-zero emissions energy systems

The smart grid concept continues to evolve and various methods have been developed to enhance the energy efficiency of the electricity infrastructure. Demand Response (DR) is considered as the most cost-effective and reliable solution for the smoothing of the demand curve, when the system is under stress. DR refers to a procedure that is applied to motivate changes in the customers' power consumption habits, in response to incentives regarding the electricity prices. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of various DR schemes and programs, based on the motivations offered to the consumers to participate in the program. We classify the proposed DR schemes according to their control mechanism, to the motivations offered to reduce the power consumption and to the DR decision variable. We also present various optimization models for the optimal control of the DR strategies that have been proposed so far. These models are also categorized, based on the target of the optimization procedure. The key aspects that should be considered in the optimization problem are the system's constraints and the computational complexity of the applied optimization algorithm.

A Survey on Demand Response Programs in Smart Grids: Pricing Methods and Optimization Algorithms

Review of photovoltaic power forecasting

This paper presents a new model for optimal trading of wind power in day-ahead (DA) electricity markets under uncertainty in wind power and prices. The model considers settlement mechanisms in markets with locational marginal prices (LMPs), where wind power is not necessarily penalized from deviations between DA schedule and real-time (RT) dispatch. We use kernel density estimation to produce a probabilistic wind power forecast, whereas uncertainties in DA and RT prices are assumed to be Gaussian. Utility theory and conditional value at risk (CVAR) are used to represent the risk preferences of the wind power producers. The model is tested on real-world data from a large-scale wind farm in the United States. Optimal DA bids are derived under different assumptions for risk preferences and deviation penalty schemes. The results show that in the absence of a deviation penalty, the optimal bidding strategy is largely driven by price expectations. A deviation penalty brings the bid closer to the expected wind power forecast. Furthermore, the results illustrate that the proposed model can effectively control the trade-off between risk and return for wind power producers operating in volatile electricity markets.

Wind Power Trading Under Uncertainty in LMP Markets

With the development of power system deregulation and smart metering technologies, price-based demand response (DR) becomes an alternative solution to improving power system reliability and efficiency by adjusting the load profile. In this paper, we simulate an electricity market with DR from different types of commercial buildings by using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) techniques. We focus on the consumption behavior of commercial buildings with different levels of DR penetration in different market structures. The results indicate that there is a noticeable impact from commercial buildings with price-responsive demand on the electricity market, and this impact differs with different scales of DR participation under different levels of market competitions.

Agent-Based Electricity Market Simulation With Demand Response From Commercial Buildings

Electricity markets must match real-time supply and demand of electricity. With increasing penetration of renewable resources, it is important that this balancing is done effectively, considering the high uncertainty of wind and solar energy. Storing electrical energy can make the grid more reliable and efficient and energy storage is proposed as a complement to highly variable renewable energy sources. However, for investments in energy storage to increase, participating in the market must become economically viable for owners. This paper proposes a stochastic formulation of a storage owner's arbitrage profit maximization problem under uncertainty in day-ahead and real-time market prices. The proposed model helps storage owners in market bidding and operational decisions and in estimation of the economic viability of energy storage. Case study results on realistic market price data show that the novel stochastic bidding approach does significantly better than the deterministic benchmark.

Energy Storage Arbitrage Under Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Uncertainty

Time-adaptive quantile-copula for wind power probabilistic forecasting

Agent-based simulation has been a popular technique in modeling and analyzing electricity markets in recent years. The main objective of this paper is to study existing agent-based simulation packages for electricity markets. We first provide an overview of electricity markets and briefly introduce the agent-based simulation technique. We then investigate several general-purpose agent-based simulation tools. Next, we review four popular agent-based simulation packages developed for electricity markets and several agent-based simulation models reported in the literature. We compare all the reviewed packages and models and identify their common features and design issues. Based on the study, we describe an agent-based simulation framework for electricity markets to facilitate the development of future models for electricity markets.

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Zhi Zhou

Papers

Wind Power Trading Under Uncertainty in LMP Markets

Agent-Based Electricity Market Simulation With Demand Response From Commercial Buildings

Energy Storage Arbitrage Under Day-Ahead and Real-Time Price Uncertainty

Time-adaptive quantile-copula for wind power probabilistic forecasting

Agent-based simulation of electricity markets: a survey of tools