Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a complex disorder for which currently there is no accepted definition. Having a uniform standard for diagnosing and classifying AKI would enhance our ability to manage these patients. Future clinical and translational research in AKI will require collaborative networks of investigators drawn from various disciplines, dissemination of information via multidisciplinary joint conferences and publications, and improved translation of knowledge from pre-clinical research. We describe an initiative to develop uniform standards for defining and classifying AKI and to establish a forum for multidisciplinary interaction to improve care for patients with or at risk for AKI. Members representing key societies in critical care and nephrology along with additional experts in adult and pediatric AKI participated in a two day conference in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, in September 2005 and were assigned to one of three workgroups. Each group's discussions formed the basis for draft recommendations that were later refined and improved during discussion with the larger group. Dissenting opinions were also noted. The final draft recommendations were circulated to all participants and subsequently agreed upon as the consensus recommendations for this report. Participating societies endorsed the recommendations and agreed to help disseminate the results. The term AKI is proposed to represent the entire spectrum of acute renal failure. Diagnostic criteria for AKI are proposed based on acute alterations in serum creatinine or urine output. A staging system for AKI which reflects quantitative changes in serum creatinine and urine output has been developed. We describe the formation of a multidisciplinary collaborative network focused on AKI. We have proposed uniform standards for diagnosing and classifying AKI which will need to be validated in future studies. The Acute Kidney Injury Network offers a mechanism for proceeding with efforts to improve patient outcomes.

Acute Kidney Injury Network: report of an initiative to improve outcomes in acute kidney injury

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study

To provide an update to “Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2012”. A consensus committee of 55 international experts representing 25 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict-of-interest (COI) policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. A stand-alone meeting was held for all panel members in December 2015. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. The panel consisted of five sections: hemodynamics, infection, adjunctive therapies, metabolic, and ventilation. Population, intervention, comparison, and outcomes (PICO) questions were reviewed and updated as needed, and evidence profiles were generated. Each subgroup generated a list of questions, searched for best available evidence, and then followed the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to assess the quality of evidence from high to very low, and to formulate recommendations as strong or weak, or best practice statement when applicable. The Surviving Sepsis Guideline panel provided 93 statements on early management and resuscitation of patients with sepsis or septic shock. Overall, 32 were strong recommendations, 39 were weak recommendations, and 18 were best-practice statements. No recommendation was provided for four questions. Substantial agreement exists among a large cohort of international experts regarding many strong recommendations for the best care of patients with sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for these critically ill patients with high mortality.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00134-017-4683-6.pdf

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: International Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock: 2016

Machine learning techniques have been widely used in many scientific fields, but its use in medical literature is limited partly because of technical difficulties. k-nearest neighbors (kNN) is a simple method of machine learning. The article introduces some basic ideas underlying the kNN algorithm, and then focuses on how to perform kNN modeling with R. The dataset should be prepared before running the knn() function in R. After prediction of outcome with kNN algorithm, the diagnostic performance of the model should be checked. Average accuracy is the mostly widely used statistic to reflect the kNN algorithm. Factors such as k value, distance calculation and choice of appropriate predictors all have significant impact on the model performance.

Introduction to machine learning: k-nearest neighbors

While purposeful selection is performed partly by software and partly by hand, the stepwise and best subset approaches are automatically performed by software. Two R functions stepAIC() and bestglm() are well designed for stepwise and best subset regression, respectively. The stepAIC() function begins with a full or null model, and methods for stepwise regression can be specified in the direction argument with character values “forward”, “backward” and “both”. The bestglm() function begins with a data frame containing explanatory variables and response variables. The response variable should be in the last column. Varieties of goodness-of-fit criteria can be specified in the IC argument. The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) usually results in more parsimonious model than the Akaike information criterion.

Variable selection with stepwise and best subset approaches

Propensity score matching (PSM) is a popular method in clinical researches to create a balanced covariate distribution between treated and untreated groups. However, the balance diagnostics are often not appropriately conducted and reported in the literature and therefore the validity of the findings from the PSM analysis is not warranted. The special article aims to outline the methods used for assessing balance in covariates after PSM. Standardized mean difference (SMD) is the most commonly used statistic to examine the balance of covariate distribution between treatment groups. Because SMD is independent of the unit of measurement, it allows comparison between variables with different unit of measurement. SMD can be reported with plot. Variance is the second central moment and should also be compared in the matched sample. Finally, a correct specification of the propensity score model (e.g., linearity and additivity) should be re-assessed if there is evidence of imbalance between treated and untreated. R code for the implementation of balance diagnostics is provided and explained.

Balance diagnostics after propensity score matching

Multiple imputation (MI) is an advanced technique for handing missing values. It is superior to single imputation in that it takes into account uncertainty in missing value imputation. However, MI is underutilized in medical literature due to lack of familiarity and computational challenges. The article provides a step-by-step approach to perform MI by using R multivariate imputation by chained equation (MICE) package. The procedure firstly imputed m sets of complete dataset by calling mice() function. Then statistical analysis such as univariate analysis and regression model can be performed within each dataset by calling with() function. This function sets the environment for statistical analysis. Lastly, the results obtained from each analysis are combined by using pool() function.

/pdf/multiple-imputation-with-multivariate-imputation-by-chained-2pszjvw1ay.pdf

Multiple imputation with multivariate imputation by chained equation (MICE) package

Time-varying covariance occurs when a covariate changes over time during the follow-up period. Such variable can be analyzed with the Cox regression model to estimate its effect on survival time. For this it is essential to organize the data in a counting process style. In situations when the proportional hazards assumption of the Cox regression model does not hold, we say that the effect of the covariate is time-varying. The proportional hazards assumption can be tested by examining the residuals of the model. The rejection of the null hypothesis induces the use of time varying coefficient to describe the data. The time varying coefficient can be described with a step function or a parametric time function. This article aims to illustrate how to carry out statistical analyses in the presence of time-varying covariates or coefficients with R.

/pdf/time-varying-covariates-and-coefficients-in-cox-regression-hpbacs1g4r.pdf

Zhongheng Zhang

Papers

Introduction to machine learning: k-nearest neighbors

Variable selection with stepwise and best subset approaches

Balance diagnostics after propensity score matching

Multiple imputation with multivariate imputation by chained equation (MICE) package

Time-varying covariates and coefficients in Cox regression models