/pdf/qualitative-choice-analysis-theory-econometrics-and-an-4kojorj7f8.pdf

Qualitative Choice Analysis-Theory, Econometrics and an Application to Automobile Demand

Electric vehicles (EVs) are experiencing a rise in popularity over the past few years as the technology has matured and costs have declined, and support for clean transportation has promoted awareness, increased charging opportunities, and facilitated EV adoption. Suitably, a vast body of literature has been produced exploring various facets of EVs and their role in transportation and energy systems. This paper provides a timely and comprehensive review of scientific studies looking at various aspects of EVs, including: (a) an overview of the status of the light-duty-EV market and current projections for future adoption; (b) insights on market opportunities beyond light-duty EVs; (c) a review of cost and performance evolution for batteries, power electronics, and electric machines that are key components of EV success; (d) charging-infrastructure status with a focus on modeling and studies that are used to project charging-infrastructure requirements and the economics of public charging; (e) an overview of the impact of EV charging on power systems at multiple scales, ranging from bulk power systems to distribution networks; (f) insights into life-cycle cost and emissions studies focusing on EVs; and (g) future expectations and synergies between EVs and other emerging trends and technologies. The goal of this paper is to provide readers with a snapshot of the current state of the art and help navigate this vast literature by comparing studies critically and comprehensively and synthesizing general insights. This detailed review paints a positive picture for the future of EVs for on-road transportation, and the authors remain hopeful that remaining technology, regulatory, societal, behavioral, and business-model barriers can be addressed over time to support a transition toward cleaner, more efficient, and affordable transportation solutions for all.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abe0ad/pdf

The rise of electric vehicles—2020 status and future expectations

Transport CO2 emissions continue to grow globally despite advances in low-carbon technology and goal setting by numerous governments. In this Perspective, we summarize available evidence for the effectiveness of climate policies and policy mixes for road transport relative to 2030 and 2050 mitigation goals implied by the Paris Agreement. Current policy mixes in most countries are not nearly stringent enough. We argue that most regions need a stronger, more integrated policy mix led by stringent regulations and complemented by pricing mechanisms as well as other efforts to reduce vehicle travel. As road transport emissions are set to grow, stronger policy mixes are needed to reach mitigation goals. This Perspective considers the evidence for several policy types—strong regulation, pricing and reduced travel—and the best combination to reduce emissions for passenger and freight vehicles.

/pdf/crafting-strong-integrated-policy-mixes-for-deep-co-2-87axd2ks77.pdf

Crafting strong, integrated policy mixes for deep CO 2 mitigation in road transport

Climate change has become a major global challenge. At present, few studies have reviewed the application practices and theoretical research of carbon neutrality. This paper summarizes the practical progress of carbon neutrality, the realization path of carbon neutrality, and the carbon neutrality research in typical fields, and concludes that the previous research has made some progress in the carbon neutrality goal domestic and overseas, the pathways to carbon neutrality, and the carbon neutrality issues in various fields. However, this paper also points out existing problems. Firstly, more studies should be carried out on the quantitative evaluation of carbon neutrality by adopting empircal datas and tools in various fields; Secondly, the correlation between paths and industries should be taken more attention; Additionally, how to measure carbon neutral capability, d potential and costis of great significance in subsequent studies.

A review of the theoretical research and practical progress of carbon neutrality

Climate change has become a major global challenge. At present, few studies have reviewed the application practices and theoretical research of carbon neutrality. This paper summarizes the practical progress of carbon neutrality, the realization path of carbon neutrality, and the carbon neutrality research in typical fields, and concludes that the previous research has made some progress in the carbon neutrality goal domestic and overseas, the pathways to carbon neutrality, and the carbon neutrality issues in various fields. However, this paper also points out existing problems. Firstly, more studies should be carried out on the quantitative evaluation of carbon neutrality by adopting empircal datas and tools in various fields; Secondly, the correlation between paths and industries should be taken more attention; Additionally, how to measure carbon neutral capability, d potential and costis of great significance in subsequent studies. 

This is Part 2 of a two-part study that explores latent demand for three types of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs): plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). Using an in-depth, Reflexive Participant approach to data collection, our survey instrument includes two measures of latent demand implemented with a representative sample of 2123 new vehicle-buying households in Canada in 2017. While Part 1 (Long et al., this issue) reports on a design space exercise, here we summarize results from a stated choice experiment, using a latent class choice model to quantify respondent preferences and motivations, and the heterogeneity therein. We identify five unique respondent classes (or segments) that largely differ by their preferred drivetrain, only three of which demonstrate significant interest in ZEVs: PEV-enthusiast (representing 13% of the sample), PHEV-oriented (22%), and ZEV-neutral (21%). Respondents in all three classes tend to have higher levels of environmental concern or engagement in an environment-oriented lifestyle. All classes significantly value purchase price and incentives, but vary widely in valuation of fuel savings, charging access, and refueling access – with little overall valuation of driving range and public charging access. We calculate conditional choice probabilities as estimates of ZEV latent demand, which is equivalent to 29% of new market share under base conditions, and significantly increases to a high of 49% with purchase incentives and widespread charger deployment. Our discussion compares insights provided by the two stated response approaches to latent demand (in Parts 1 and 2), making a case for overall complementarity.

Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 2): Insights from a stated choice experiment

The role of trust in citizen acceptance of climate policy: Comparing perceptions of government competence, integrity and value similarity

Widespread uptake of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (collectively zero-emissions vehicles or ZEVs) could help many regions achieve deep greenhouse gas mitigation goals. Using the case of Canada, this study investigates the extent to which increasing ZEV charging and refuelling availability may boost ZEV sales relative to other ZEV-supportive policies. We adapt a version of the Respondent-based Preferences and Constraints (REPAC) model using 2017 survey data from 1884 Canadian new vehicle-buyers to simulate the sales impacts of increasing electric vehicle charging access at home, work, public destinations, and on highways, as well as increasing hydrogen refuelling station access. REPAC is built from a stated preference choice model and represents constraints in supply and consumer awareness, as well as dynamics in ZEV policy out to 2030. Results suggest that new ZEV market share from 2020 to 2030 does not substantially benefit from increased infrastructure. Even when electric charging and hydrogen refuelling access are simulated to reach “universally” available levels by 2030, ZEV sales do not rise by more than 1.5 percentage points above the baseline trajectory. On the other hand, REPAC simulates ZEV market share rising as high as 30% by 2030 with strong ZEV-supportive policies, even without the addition of charging or refuelling infrastructure. These findings stem from low consumer valuation of infrastructure found in the stated preference model. Results suggest that achieving ambitious ZEV sale targets requires a comprehensive suite of policies beyond a focus on charging and refueling infrastructure.

The role of charging and refuelling infrastructure in supporting zero-emission vehicle sales

We explore consumer demand for three types of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs): plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). We assess latent demand, defined as what ZEV sales could be if they were fully available (in a wide variety of makes and models), and if consumers were fully aware of their existence. Using an in-depth, Reflexive Participant approach to data collection, our survey instrument includes two measures of latent demand: a design space exercise and a stated choice experiment. The survey was completed by a representative sample of 2123 new vehicle-buying households in Canada in 2017. Part 1 (this paper) focuses on the design space exercise, which allows consumers to “design” a conventional, hybrid, or ZEV drivetrain, including specific attribute levels. Under higher and lower price conditions, 14% and 21% of respondents (respectively) select a ZEV, with most selecting PHEVs (11% and 12%), followed by BEVs (2.2% and 5.4%), and HFCVs (1.5% and 3.6%). Most respondents who design a PHEV or HFCV as their first choice select a conventional or hybrid vehicle as their second choice, while BEV designers tend to select a PHEV as their second choice. Further, those who select PHEVs and BEVs have higher levels of environmental-oriented lifestyle engagement and altruistic values, whereas respondents who select HFCVs score lower for both constructs. Results provide one measure of latent demand, while also indicating heterogeneity in demand and motivations. In Part 2 (Kormos et al., this issue), we summarize and compare results from a stated choice experiment.

Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 1): Insights from a design space exercise

Despite policy support and technological progress, consumer adoption of electric vehicles remains limited globally. One important barrier to electric vehicle adoptionmay be limited consumer awareness.We investigate trends in consumer awareness, familiarity, and experience with electric vehicles by comparing cross-sectional survey responses from two representative samples of Canadian new vehicle-buyers collected in 2013 (n=2922) and in 2017 (n=1808).While a significantly higher proportion of 2017 respondents have ‘heard of’ key electric vehiclemodels, stated familiarity and experience are low for both samples. Further, about three-quarters of respondents in both samples are confused about the basic notion of how to refuel (or recharge) electric vehicles—and how these vehicles differ fromhybrids. Conversely, over half of 2017 respondents report having seen at least one electric vehicle charger in public, which ismore than double the proportion reported in the 2013 sample. These trends hold in analyses of three Canadian provinces, including two that have engaged in significant consumer outreach activities over this time frame.Overall, in contrast to expectations, our results suggest that consumer awareness remains low and stagnant, whichmay hindermarket growth and inhibit the climatemitigation potential of electric vehicles.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4ca1/pdf

Zoe Long

Papers

Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 2): Insights from a stated choice experiment

The role of trust in citizen acceptance of climate policy: Comparing perceptions of government competence, integrity and value similarity

The role of charging and refuelling infrastructure in supporting zero-emission vehicle sales

Latent demand for zero-emissions vehicles in Canada (Part 1): Insights from a design space exercise

Consumers continue to be confused about electric vehicles: comparing awareness among Canadian new car buyers in 2013 and 2017