Showing papers by "Center for the Study of Democracy published in 2016"

Emancipating Sexuality: Breakthroughs into a Bulwark of Tradition.

Abstract: This article presents evidence for a rising emancipatory spirit, across generations and around the world, in a life domain in which religion hitherto blocked emancipatory gains: sexual freedoms. We propose an explanation of rising emancipative values that integrates several approaches into a single idea—the utility ladder of freedoms. Specifically, we suggest that objectively improving living conditions—from rising life expectancies to broader education—transform the nature of life from a source of threats into a source of opportunities. As life begins to hold more promise for increasing population segments, societies climb the utility ladder of freedoms: practicing and respecting universal freedoms becomes increasingly vital to take advantage of rising life opportunities. This trend has begun to spill over into a life domain in which religious norms have until recently been able to resist emancipatory gains: sexual freedoms. We present (1) crossnational, (2) longitudinal, (3) generational and (4) multilevel evidence on an unprecedentedly broad basis in support of this theory.

The Potential of Big Data for the Cross-National Study of Political Behavior

Abstract: The U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012 were a coming out party for Big Data applications in electoral studies. The Obama campaign developed a model of identifying individual voters that guided their campaign strategy to a successful outcome. This essay considers whether this model is exportable to elections and other aspects of political behavior in cross-national research. There is uneven development to date, but a growing awareness of the potential of Big Data electoral campaigns. More broadly, the essay discusses the current potential and limits of Big Data for the cross-national study of political behavior. The potential exceeds the actual applications, and there are major challenges for academic, theory-testing research using Big Data methods. It is unclear whether Big Data can successfully address these challenges.

Replacement in the U.S. House: An outlier-chasing model

Abstract: We know that most House seats remain within the same party over the course of a redistricting decade. For example, over 75% did so in the last decade. This gives rise to the question: “Why do some ...

Components of party polarization in the US House of Representatives

Abstract: We specify the level of polarization in a two-party legislature as an explicit function of three factors: (1) the ideological heterogeneity of district median voters, (2) the distance between candidates of different parties in the same or ideologically comparable districts, and (3) partisan bias in choosing between candidates equidistant from the median voter. Our key empirical finding, reinforced by two alternative methods of calculation, is that, while changes in each factor have contributed to the present day extremely high level polarization in the US House of Representatives, at least 80% of the growth in that polarization from 1956 through 2008 can be attributed to a dramatic increase in the second of these factors: party differentiation at the district level.

Sharks in Sheep’s Clothing: Modalities of Predatory and Illegal Lending in Bulgaria

Abstract: The economic downturn in 2009 led to a revival of illegal and predatory lending in Bulgaria, as many households and businesses were struggling to make ends meet and turned to shadow financiers. Cases of victimised usury clients increased, as well as the use of coercive, at times violent, debt collection methods associated with the activity. This is hardly surprising as illegal and predatory lending practices in Bulgaria have long been associated with organised criminal groups branching out into a lucrative and growing usury market. A recently emerged trend is resourceful criminal organisations, facilitated by loose financial regulations, legitimising their lending practices by operating on the legal market as financial lending institutions with local to regional coverage, but still keeping their predatory lending business model. In order to explain the resurgence of predatory and illegal lending in Bulgaria, this chapter will analyse in detail the overall context that enabled the proliferation of usury activities in recent years, the different modalities of usury ranging from entirely illegal lending to legal-like predatory practices, the role and involvement of organised crime, as well as the financial aspects of usury activities. This chapter draws on data from a number of in-depth interviews with law enforcement officers, experts and convicted offenders carried out in the course of 2014.