Showing papers by "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published in 1983"
TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that changes in the discount rate can have associated announcement effects on the foreign exchange value of the dollar only if these changes are not anticipated by the market.
40 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the relative abilities of two money multiplier forecasting procedures are compared, based on forecasts of the MI multiplier for the period January 1980 through December 1982, and the evidence presented here indicates that the aggregate model forecasts the multiplier as well as the component procedure.
25 citations
TL;DR: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers as discussed by the authors are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment and do not necessarily reflect the official positions of the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors.
Abstract: ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Photo courtesy of The Gateway Arch, St. Louis, MO. www.gatewayarch.com
11 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the expectations formation process of weekly money supply forecasts derived from survey data and found that forecaster's expectations are modelled best as regressive, and that the results are unaffected by the October 1979 change in monetary operating procedures.
10 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that fixed points are not necessarily minima and that the question of practical importance is whether the residual sum of squares can have multiple minima, and they provide the first real example of multiple Minima obtainable by the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure with or without a lagged endogenous variable.
Abstract: Betancourt/Kelejian [1981] have recently warned against using the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure in models which include a lagged endogenous variable because this procedure can have more than onefixed point even asymptotically. FollowingSargan [1964], we argue instead that fixed points are not necessarily minima and that the question of practical importance is whether the residual sum of squares can have multipleminima. Within this formulation of the problem, we provide the firstreal example of multiple minima obtainable by the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure — with or without a lagged endogenous variable — and use it to caution against routine use of this procedure.
8 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that changes in the discount rate can have an associated announcement effect on the foreign exchange value of the dollar only if these changes are not anticipated by the market.
Abstract: Changes in the discount rate can have an associated announcement effect on the foreign exchange value of the dollar only if these changes are not anticipated by the market. This paper provides evidence to support this contention. Specifically, discount rate changes made for reasons other than technical adjustments have not been anticipated fully and consequently, their announcement has had a significant impact on the dollar's exchange rate. Furthermore, results are obtained that support the hypothesis that unanticipated discount rate changes alter the expectation of the rate of future inflation.
7 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors deal with two common econometric criticisms of the Andersen and Jordan (1968) equation: the endogeneity of the right-hand-side variables and the ad hoc implementation of Almon's polynomial distributed lag estimation technique.
4 citations
2 citations
TL;DR: This paper argued that perfect competition in the banking industry is not a necessary but not sufficient condition for excluding bank money from society's net wealth, and that resource-using bank money is part of the base relevant for the operation of the real-balance effect.
2 citations