Showing papers by "London School of Economics and Political Science published in 1968"

A generalization of bayesian inference

Abstract: Procedures of statistical inference are described which generalize Bayesian inference in specific ways Probability is used in such a way that in general only bounds may be placed on the probabilities of given events, and probability systems of this kind are suggested both for sample information and for prior information These systems are then combined using a specified rule Illustrations are given for inferences about trinomial probabilities, and for inferences about a monotone sequence of binomial pi Finally, some comments are made on the general class of models which produce upper and lower probabilities, and on the specific models which underlie the suggested inference procedures

Cost Functions in the Location of Depots for Multiple-Delivery Journeys

Abstract: Most wholesale distribution is performed during multiple-delivery journeys Mathematical methods of locating depots utilize simple functions of delivery data, eg weight and distance from the depot, to measure the delivery "cost"; the total "cost" is minimized to find the depot location

The deviance of women: a critique and an enquiry.

Abstract: (a) deviance in general (i.e. in practice either male and female deviance together or simply male deviance alone) has long aroused considerable interest. Since Durkheim argued' that 'deviant' or 'pathological' behaviour has social as well as individual aspects, the sociology of deviance has been an important and developing field of sociological theorizing and enquiry. Therefore the general unconcern with the potential deviance of approximately half the members of any human society is surprising. (b) Interest in the changing position of women as it has affected marriage, the family and the division of roles within it has been considerable and has been productive of a vast range of studies, from, moreover, almost every known 'type' of sociologist: from American functionalist theoreticians to the more empiricallyminded British.2

Standardization: A Technique to Control for Extraneous Variables

Abstract: Standardization is discussed as a technique to control for extraneous variables in survey analysis. The weights for the standardization are chosen, in the case of estimation, in order to minimize the variance of the estimator and, in the case of a significance test, in order to maximize the power of the test. Examples are given to illustrate the uses and limitations of standardization in survey analysis.

Multivariate analysis of office location patterns in the city centre: A London example

Abstract: Goddard J. (1968) Multivariate analysis of office location patterns in the city centre: A London example, Reg. Studies 2, 69–85. This paper considers the problem of defining the linkages that bind firms together in close spatial cohesion in the city centre. It suggests that these linkages constitute a definable activity system and attempts to specify the present state of this system by analysing the spatial relationship between employment in eighty different types of offices in the City of London. After discussing various techniques used in other studies, an 80 × 80 correlation matrix is described and analysed within the framework of factor and cluster analysis in order to define sets of spatially linked activities. The organization of city centre space is then analysed by defining types of office areas (non-contiguous) and office regions (contiguous), using scores on the underlying factors that have been extracted, and generalized distance as the measures of similarity.

On Warranted Growth Paths

Abstract: Recently I showed [2] that the steady state path of an economy with more than one capital good was not the asymptotic state of all equilibrium paths. For some special cases I demonstrated that indeed all equilibrium paths diverged. This is in marked contrast to the well known result of Solow for the one-sector world and to the equally familiar two-sector propositions. Partly through discussions with Mirrlees, I had become aware that my analysis bore a family resemblance to the “local turnpike theorems” of Dosso, Samuelson and McKenzie [4, 6], which exploit the fact that the Neumann ray is a saddle point’ in the phase space of all inter-temporally efficient paths. However I could not make a firm connection since my construction allowed for a separate consumption sector, a descriptive consumption function and for an exogenously given labour force. The “turnpike” results had none of these features. But further study of the problem has enabled me to clarify the connection between the descriptive and the “planning” model and it is the first purpose of this paper to report on this.

The Employment of Immigrants: A Case Study within the Wool Industry

Abstract: B. G. COHEN is a Senior Research Officer at the Institute of Race Relations; P. J. JENNER is an Assistant Lecturer in Social Administration at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The authors wish to acknowledge the help of the Institute’s ’Survey of Race Relations in Britain’ who financed the study and gave advice and criticism ; also Professor M. H. Peston of Queen Mary College, London, for his helpful advice; and the very large number of people in the West Riding of Yorkshire without whose aid the study would not have been possible. INTRODUCTION

Gaming and simulation in international relations1

Abstract: TEMPER is a strategic model of international conflict relationships and interactions, focussed, at its present stage of developmcnt, on cold war and limited war situations. Its design and supporting computer base permit the simulation and quantitative analysis of a wide spectrum of economic, military and political interactions, including limited conflict and bargaining, among East, West, and neutral nations and b10cs.~

A Generalization of Bayesian Inference

Abstract: Procedures of statistical inference are described which generalize Bayesian inference in specific ways. Probability is used in such a way that in general only bounds may be placed on the probabilities of given events, and probability systems of this kind are suggested both for sample information and for prior information. These systems are then combined using a specified rule. Illustrations are given for inferences about trinomial probabilities, and for inferences about a monotone sequence of binomial pi. Finally, some comments are made on the general class of models which produce upper and lower probabilities, and on the specific models which underlie the suggested inference procedures.

Experimental Simulation of a Social System

Abstract: Operational research has had only limited success in tackling problems which involve dynamic social factors. The social sciences today are not oriented to contribute to the solution of these problems. Rather than abandon the problems, or deal with them inadequately by ignoring the social factors, there is a third possibility. The situation can be simulated, with necessarily simplified rules of social action and interaction. The simulation should be regarded as a tool for experimentation rather than as an exact description, and progressive sophistications of the representations of the social factors can be developed. Illustrations of the adequacy of this approach are drawn from a model of the prescribing habits of doctors.

The functionalist approach to the problem of international order: a defence

Abstract: THE publication in 1964 of Ernst Haas’s Beyond the Nation State1 and the republication in 1966, with an introduction by Hans Morgenthau, ofDavid Mitrany’s basic work A Working Peace System (first published in 1943) have introduced a new vigour into discussions about the Functionalist approach to the problems of international society. In Beyond the Nation State Professor Haas develops and amends Functionalist ideas in the light both of sociological functionalism and of modern developments in systems theory. The critics have not of course been silenced, and even now the exchanges could not be said to have reached the dimensions of a Great Debate. But those academics and, it should be noted, international Civil Servants who have for long been attracted to the Functionalist approach have received new encouragement. Consequently, this is an opportune moment to attempt an appraisal of some of the major issues involved in that debate and to comment on some of the problems of Functionalism. Before beginning the discussion, however, one central question must be put. Where are the basic ideas on Functionalism to be found? This is of some importance, since criticisms have sometimes been addressed not to the basic ideas but to inaccurate interpretations of them. Four major themes are reflected in the Functionalist literature at the present time.2 First there are the basic ideas themselves to be found in the works of David Mitrany, Leonard Woolf, Sir Norman Angell, Viscount Cecil, G. D. H. Cole, and a few others of lesser importance. Ernst Haas has correctly pointed out that the chief exponent of Functionalism is David Mitrany.3 He is not correct however, in asserting that they, the Functionalists, were ‘writers preparing blueprints for the brave new world that was to arise out of World War W.4 They were also concerned about the brave new world that was to arise out of the First World War. Leonard Woolf published his survey of plans for a League of Nations in 1917 and edited The Intelligent Man’s Way to Prevent War in 1933. Norman Angell, Robert Cecil and G. D. H. Cole were also publishing in the 1930s and earlier. David Mitrany, perhaps the most widely read, didpublish for the post Second World War settlement, particularly the pamphlet The Road to Security (1944) and the book A Working

Some Issues in Econometric History

Abstract: "The trouble with fiction", said John Rivers, "is that it makes too much sense. Reality never makes sense." "Never?" I questioned. "Maybe from God's point of view," he conceded. "Never from ours. Fiction has unity, fiction has style. Facts possess neither. In the raw, existence is always one damned thing after another, and each of the damned things is simultaneously Thurber and Michelangelo, simultaneously Micky Spillane and Thomas 'a Kempis. The criterion of reality is its intrinsic irrelevance."

International Development Policy: Two Recent Studies

Abstract: I. Introduction, 474. — II. Johnson's book, 474. —III. Pincus' book, 483. — IV. Conclusion, 497.

Ethnic Group Differences in Israel

Abstract: or descent. For other purposes, finer distinctions have to be made on the basis of cultural and other differences. The distinction between Europeans and Orientals is one that has been strongly emphasised since the establishment of the State. The total Jewish population in 1948 was 716,000: about one-third were local born, of whom far less than half were ’Oriental’; about one-half were European-born; and the remainder, about 10 per cent were born in North Africa or Asia. By 1955 the Jewish population totalled one and a half million.