Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency

About: Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency is a government organization based out in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It is known for research contribution in the topics: Exchange rate & Monetary policy. The organization has 12 authors who have published 19 publications receiving 800 citations.

Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures

Abstract: 1. INTRODUCTION The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a customs union that consists of six members, including four major oil-exporting countries, which are important decision makers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). (1) The six members are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). The non-OPEC members among them are Bahrain and Oman. In January 2003, these countries collectively accounted for about 16% of the world's 76.5 million barrels a day of total production. They possess 47% of the world's 1018.8 billion barrels of oil proven reserves. (2) For these countries, oil exports largely determine foreign earnings and governments' budget revenues and expenditures; thus they are the primary determinant of aggregate demand. (3) The aggregate demand effect influences corporate output and domestic price levels, which eventually impacts corporate earnings and stock market share prices. This demand effect can also indirectly impact share prices through its influence on expected inflation, which in turn affects the expected discount rate. Such a strong oil influence on the national economy makes these countries primary targets for investigating the links between oil prices and the performance of their stock markets. There has been a large volume of work examining the relationships among international financial markets; a good deal of work has also been devoted to the links between spot and futures petroleum prices. In contrast, little work has been done on the relationships between oil spot/futures prices and stock markets. Virtually all of this work has concentrated on a few industrial countries, namely, Canada, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. No work has been done on the relationship between the stock markets of the GCC countries as an economic group and their links to the oil markets, despite the fact that the economies of these countries depend to a large extent on oil revenues and are thus susceptible to developments in the global oil market. Moreover, because each GCC country depends on oil to a different degree, comparisons between them form an interesting subject for more investigation and analysis. Additionally, the Saudi stock market, which is 9th among emerging stock markets in terms of market capitalization in 2003, is the true leader of the GCC and is thus worthy of study on its own. Furthermore, these markets can provide an additional venue for international stock diversification and portfolio formation. For example, the total GCC market return increased by more than 9% in 2002; returns ranged from 32% for Qatar to less than 1% for Saudi Arabia. In contrast, the Standard & Poor's 500 (S & P 500) FTSE, and DAX declined by about 23%, 21% and 44%, respectively, in that down year (see Figure 1). Surprisingly, the overall literature on the links between oil markets and financial markets is very limited. Jones and Kaul (1996) investigated the reaction of the U.S., Canadian, Japanese and U.K. stock prices to oil price shocks using quarterly data. Utilizing a standard cash-flow dividend valuation model, they found that for the United States and Canada this reaction can be accounted for entirely by the impact of oil shocks on real cash flows. The results for Japan and the United Kingdom were not as strong. Huang et al. (1996) used an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the relationship between daily oil futures returns and daily U.S. stock returns. They found that oil futures returns lead some individual oil company stock returns, but they do not have much impact on broad-based market indices, such as the S & P 500. In a more recent study, Sadorsky (1999), using monthly data (1947:1-1996:4), examined the links between the U.S. fuel oil prices and the S & P 500 in an unrestricted VAR model that also included the short-term interest rate and industrial production. In contrast with Huang et al. …

The effects of foreign direct investment on private domestic investment: evidence from developing countries

Abstract: The main objective of this study is to make a contribution to the empirical literature of investment by examining the effects of FDI inflows on private investment in developing host countries. We employ panel data for 91 developing host countries over the period 1970–2000 and estimate our model by a means of system generalized method of moments. The results show that FDI stimulates private domestic investment which supports the “crowd-in-hypothesis”. Moreover, after grouping countries based on their level of income, we find that the positive effects of FDI on private investment in low-income countries depend on the availability of human capital.

Possible Unintended Consequences of Basel III and Solvency II

Abstract: In today’s financial system, complex financial institutions are connected through an opaque network of financial exposures. These connections contribute to financial deepening and greater savings allocation efficiency, but are also unstable channels of contagion. Basel III and Solvency II should improve the stability of these connections, but could have unintended consequences for cost of capital, funding patterns, interconnectedness, and risk migration.

Oil prices, terms of trade shocks, and macroeconomic fluctuations in saudi arabia

Abstract: The article investigates the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Saudi Arabia using structural vector autoregression methods and pays particular attention to oil prices and changes in terms of trade. Using a macroeconomic model tailored to the Saudi Arabian economy, the authors identify terms of trade, supply, balance of payments, aggregate demand, and monetary shocks. The results show that the Saudi Arabian price level, real exchange rate, and to a lesser extent output is vulnerable to terms of trade shocks. Moreover, Saudi Arabian terms of trade are driven by output, trade balance, and aggregate demand shocks. To stabilize output and the real exchange rate, Saudi Arabia ought to continue diversifying its production base and aim for a stable nominal oil price. (JEL E32, Q43, C22)