Showing papers in "American Journal of Political Science in 1982"
TL;DR: In fact, it is better analytic strategy to include a multiplicative term than to exclude one as mentioned in this paper, since it is easier to explain the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable, regardless of the level of other variables.
Abstract: Though the inclusion of multiplicative terms in multiple regression equations is often prescribed as a method for assessing interaction in multivariate relationships, the technique has been criticized for yielding results that are hard to interpret, unreliable (as a result of multicollinearity between the multiplicative term and its constituent variables), and even meaningless. An interpretation of a multiple regression equation with a multiplicative term in conditional terms reveals all these criticisms to be unfounded. In fact, it is better analytic strategy to include a multiplicative term than to exclude one. Complicated as quantitative political analysis may seem to the uninitiated, one of the most telling criticisms made against it is that it often oversimplifies an exceedingly complicated political reality. The penchant for simplicity and generality of explanation is, of course, one of the driving forces of science, and unfortunately, it sometimes drives too far. But oversimplification sometimes also occurs because political researchers do not know about or hesitate to use techniques that would allow them to detect more complicated patterns of relationship in data. A prime example of this is the technique considered in the following pages: the inclusion of multiplicative terms in multiple regression equations. Perhaps the most common simplification in quantitative analysis is the assumption of additivity-the assumption that the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable is always the same, regardless of the level of other variables. The familiar multiple regression equation
1,085 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the effect of economic adversity on voter turnout has been investigated, and individual level findings were corroborated with aggregate time-series data from presidential and midterm elections since 1896, showing that economic problems both increase the opportunity costs of political participation and reduce a person's capacity to attend to politics.
Abstract: Does economic adversity affect whether people vote? Data from the November 1974 Current Population Survey are used to estimate the effect that unemployment, poverty, and a decline in financial well-being have on voter turnout. Each economic problem suppresses participation. These individual level findings are corroborated with aggregate time-series data from presidential and midterm elections since 1896. When a person suffers economic adversity his scarce resources are spent holding body and soul together, not on remote concerns like politics. Economic problems both increase the opportunity costs of political participation and reduce a person's capacity to attend to politics.
408 citations
TL;DR: This paper found that belief in economic individualism leads people to accept personal responsibility for their economic conditions, which in turn eliminates any connection between personal well-being and political evaluation, and discussed the role of political culture and belief in the assessment of "self-interest" and "rationality" in political behavior.
Abstract: The nature of the relationship between personal economic well-being and political behavior has been an object of much theory and research in the social sciences. A growing number of studies of survey data have concluded, however, that there is little or no relationship in the U.S. between financial well-being and political attitudes and behavior. This paper offers an explanation for these findings based on the way people perceive the nature of their financial well-being. The analysis shows that belief in economic individualism leads people to accept personal responsibility for their economic conditions, which in turn eliminates any connection between personal well-being and political evaluation. I discuss the role of political culture and belief in the assessment of "self-interest" and "rationality" in political behavior in light of these findings.
318 citations
TL;DR: This article investigated the link between presidential administration and the performance of the independent regulatory commissions, and found that regulatory behavior does shift across administrations, and that it varies systematically with presidential partisanship.
Abstract: This paper pursues a better understanding of regulatory independence by investigating the link between presidential administration and the performance of the independent regulatory commissions. The data are drawn from three independent commissions-the National Labor Relations Board, the Federal Trade Commission, and the Securities and Exchange Commission-and separate time-series analyses are conducted for periods covering the Truman years through 1977. Attention centers on whether and how the prevailing patterns of regulatory performance have been altered as different administrations have assumed formal charge of the government. The analysis suggests that regulatory behavior does shift across administrations, and that it varies systematically with presidential partisanship. Presidents apparently do achieve a measure of direction and control over the independent commissions.
285 citations
TL;DR: This paper investigated the response of political support for American presidents among occupational and partisan groups to economic and noneconomic events within the framework of a dynamic model of political choice, revealing the relative sensitivity of different groups' political support to unemployment, inflation and the real income growth rate as well as to the Vietnam casualties, the Watergate scandal and international crisis events.
Abstract: This article investigates the response of political support for American presidents among occupational and partisan groups to economic and noneconomic events within the framework of a dynamic model of political choice. Estimates of the model reveal the relative sensitivity of different groups' political support to unemployment, inflation and the real income growth rate as well as to the Vietnam casualties, the Watergate scandal and international crisis events. The intergroup differences in political responses to the performance variables are sizeable and in general appear to reflect diverging objective group interests rather than partisan-based perceptions.
188 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the reliability of the trust-in-government items in Costa Rica and Mexico has been evaluated using a ten-point response format, with the most negative response scored as "1" and the other categories scored "O".
Abstract: concept of "values." Of course it also is possible that a response set is operating across the pro-worded items; if this were the case, reliability as determined by coefficient alpha could be high, even though many responses were invalid (in this instance, con sentiment misrepresented as pro sentiment). However, the format of the response options-to what extent does a respondent feel one way or the other, pro or con-makes response set much less likely than other formats (e.g., agree-disagree). For assessing the potential usefulness of the indicator we do not just rely on reliability (there is no infallible measure, since even "test-retest" reliability can be contaminated by "true" change), but look, additionally, at how the scale performs in relation to other variables. 4The urban Costa Rica sample was drawn from a sample frame prepared by Professor G6mez, already used and refined in six national probability samples as well as several smaller studies. In the present investigation, in order to retain comparability with the urban sample of New York, only two of the four strata in the sample frame were used, the metropolitan area of San Jose and the urban areas of provincial capitals of Alajuela, Cartago, and Heredia. Eliminated were the two rural strata. Each stratum was in turn stratified according to an index of socioeconomic status, based upon housing characteristics and ownership of electrical artifacts as reported in the 1973 national census. Primary sampling units This content downloaded from 157.55.39.221 on Sun, 06 Nov 2016 05:48:04 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms ANTISYSTEM POLITICAL BEHAVIOR 251 can survey, conducted in Guadalajara during July and August 1979. This purposive sample, with a total N of 169, was drawn from six middleclass sections of Guadalajara. Planned by Seligson and John A. Booth, the study was conducted with the institutional support of the University of Arizona Guadalajara Summer Program. In the Guadalajara survey a ten-point response format was used in place of the seven-point format, and, because of space limitation, only items C through G were administered. The reliability analysis for the Urban Costa Rica and Guadalajara samples is also given in Table 2. The Political Support-Alienation scale shows satisfactory reliability in the Costa Rican sample and achieves an even higher level of reliability in the Mexican sample. These surveys also included the five Trust in Government items, administered according to the same format used in the National Election Studies carried out by the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan.5 For a reliability analysis, we dichotomized them following the procedure of Miller (1974, p. 953), with the most negative response (see Table 1) scored as "1" and the other categories scored "O." In the New York City general public survey, only a subsample consisting of 372 respondents received the Trust in Government items. Among the 284 general public respondents who could be scored on all items, Table 3 shows that the reliability coefficient is .70, while in the university sample it is even lower, reaching a level of only.66. These are low, though not unacceptable (according to customary practice in basic research), levels of reliability. Interestingly, respondents from academia appeared to have more trouble with these items than did the general public. From Table 3 one also sees that the Trust in Government items have similarly low, reliability in two of the Latin American samples. If we designate values less than .6 as unacceptably low reliability, the Costa Rican sample approaches this level. The Guadalajara sample shows a somewhat higher reliability-but still in the .6-.7 range. Also, the blue-collar Mexican border-cities analyzed by Seligson (forthcoming) showed a reliability coefficient in the .6-.7 range (.63). were then selected at random using the PPS method. Within each unit all dwellings were visited, and a list of all residents eighteen years and over was prepared. The final selection of respondents was then drawn at random from these lists. I Since 1974 the SRC has made a minor change in the wording of the last two items in the series. The "smart" item was revised by deleting "who usually know what they are doing" from the first part of the item, while the "crooked" item was revised by inserting the words "a little" before the first use of "crooked" and deleting "crooked" after "not very many are." We have used the original format to retain compatability with the earlier SRC work as well as with some of our own studies. These changes do not appear to have increased the reliability of the SRC data. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.221 on Sun, 06 Nov 2016 05:48:04 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
187 citations
TL;DR: The authors compared the characteristics of respondents who falsely claim to have voted with those of actual voters and admitted nonvoters and concluded that substantive conclusions about the factors that influence voting or non-voting are largely unaffected by the use of validated as opposed to reported voting data.
Abstract: Postelection surveys consistently overestimate voter turnout by a substantial margin. This paper compares, via discriminant analysis of data from the 1978 National Election Study, the characteristics of respondents who falsely claim to have voted with the characteristics of actual voters and admitted nonvoters. More importantly, it undertakes two parallel analyses of the factors affecting voting or nonvoting. The first employs respondent-supplied voting data, and the second employs officially validated voting data. Even though misreporters differ in some respects from actual voters and admitted nonvoters, the parallel analyses in the latter part of the paper indicate that substantive conclusions about the factors that influence voting or nonvoting are largely unaffected by the use of validated as opposed to reported voting data.
168 citations
TL;DR: This article examined how informed citizens choose one policy option over another on nuclear energy and whether informed citizens use a decision calculus fundamentally different from that of the uninformed, finding that knowledgeable citizens rely heavily on ideology, which also colors their cost-benefit calculations, while the unknowledgeable draw on their generalized outlooks toward technology and the cues provided by groups involved in the nuclear energy controversy.
Abstract: The rise of a new set of complex and highly consequential issues has generated a heated debate about the place of the citizen in the decision-making process. This article examines how citizens choose one policy option over another on nuclear energy and whether informed citizens use a decision calculus fundamentally different from that of the uninformed. Knowledgeable citizens, we find, rely heavily on ideology, which also colors their cost-benefit calculations, while the unknowledgeable draw on their generalized outlooks toward technology and the cues provided by groups involved in the nuclear energy controversy.
156 citations
TL;DR: This article proposed and estimated models of the sources and impacts of interpersonal networks in the mass public, using data on political networks collected as part of the research and development efforts for the National Election Studies.
Abstract: The social context of political decision making is a critical component of explanations of political behavior. Little research, however, has focused on direct observation of the social circles that transmit political information and influence. This paper describes local, neighborhood-based social networks as influences on individual political attitudes. I propose and estimate models of the sources and impacts of interpersonal networks in the mass public, using data on political networks collected as part of the research and development efforts for the National Election Studies.
111 citations
TL;DR: This article examined presidential influence on Federal Reserve monetary policy in the 1970s and found that the Fed did not appear to manipulate the money supply in 1972 to aid President Nixon's reelection, and that the reaction function shifted between the Nixon and Ford administrations; it did not shift with the ascension of Carter, and did not change with the replacement of Chairman Arthur Burns by Chairman William Miller.
Abstract: This research examined presidential influence on Federal Reserve monetary policy in the 1970s. A reaction function for the change in the Federal Funds rate was estimated and then checked to determine whether that reaction function shifted at politically important points. The two political influences studied were elections and administration. The Federal Reserve did not appear to manipulate the money supply in 1972 to aid President Nixon's reelection. The reaction function shifted between the Nixon and Ford administrations; it did not shift with the ascension of Carter, and it did not shift with the replacement of Chairman Arthur Burns by Chairman William Miller.
106 citations
TL;DR: The authors investigated the role of family roles, subjective conflict, and political ambition in a potential candidate's calculation of the costs and benefits of running for office and found that the role these play in potential candidates' decisions is different for men and women.
Abstract: Research on political ambition and recruitment has yet to consider seriously the role of private life and especially the family in a potential candidate's calculation of the costs and benefits of running for office. One reason is that men, who constitute the vast majority of candidates, are not usually identified as experiencing conflict between public and private roles. Using the Center for Political Studies (CPS) 1972 Convention Delegate Study, this article investigates the interrelationships of family roles, subjective conflict, and political ambition. Although many of the same features of family life conflict with men's and women's political life, the role these play in potential candidates' decisions is different for men and women.
TL;DR: This paper reported the results of an extension of Huckfeldt's study of neighborhood status on political participation, using survey responses from the 1972 American Election Study, and showed that the effect of neighborhood social status on participation is not consistent for respondents of different levels of social status.
Abstract: This research note reports the results of an extension of Huckfeldt's study of the effects of neighborhood status on political participation. Using survey responses from the 1972 American Election Study, Huckfeldt's distinction between individually and socially based participation (1979), and composite measures of respondent and neighborhood social status, we find: (1) that neighborhood social status is related to socially based participation; but (2) that it is unrelated to individually based participatory acts; and (3) that the effect of neighborhood social status on participation is not consistent for respondents of different levels of social status.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors tried to explain citizen-initiated contacts with government agencies through an analysis of survey data on contacts with ten departments of municipal government in Cincinnati, Ohio, and found that contacts are a function primarily of the individual's perceived needs for an agency's services and secondarily of the socioeconomic model.
Abstract: Citizen-initiated contacts with government agencies are now recognized as an increasingly important form of political participation, yet a form not as easily explained as are most traditional forms of political participation. This report attempts to explain those contacts through an analysis of survey data on contacts with ten departments of municipal government in Cincinnati, Ohio. The research first tested the prevailing theories of contacts, the traditional "socioeconomic model" and the newer parabolic model, and found both wanting. The research then developed a new "clientele participation" model, which argued that contacts are a function primarily of the individual's perceived needs for an agency's services and secondarily of the socioeconomic model, presumably the general political attitudes and information that also affect traditional forms of political participation. This model proves to be a much better predictor of the Cincinnati contacts than is either the socioeconomic model alone or the parabolic model.
TL;DR: This article found that organizations vary systematically by type in the level and mode of participation engaged in by their members and the relative importance of political orientations to these relationships, and that organizational activity and social class relate to participation in similar ways-through the development of political attitudes and skills.
Abstract: Although organizational involvement has been widely studied as an independent predictor of political participation, there is some question about the process whereby groups mobilize their members. One model is that organizational activity and social class relate to participation in similar ways-through the development of political attitudes and skills. An alternative model is that group members are mobilized without developing participatory orientations. Evidence presented here suggests that organizations vary systematically by type (1) in the level and mode of participation engaged in by their members and (2) in the relative importance of political orientations to these relationships.
TL;DR: Goldman et al. as mentioned in this paper found that a substantial proportion of the outcomes in unanimous decisions in both periods were found to reflect the ideological preferences of the panel majority, and that criminal appeals and the unanimous reversals of decisions in cases raising economic issues were the types of cases in which unanimous decisions were most likely to be consistent with the ideology of the court majority.
Abstract: to divided decisions. Unanimous decisions of the U.S. courts of appeals from two time periods separated by three decades were studied. Contrary to the widespread expectation that most unanimous decisions were truly consensual decisions whose outcomes were determined by precedent or other institutional/role restraints, a substantial proportion of the outcomes in unanimous decisions in both periods were found to reflect the ideological preferences of the panel majority. Criminal appeals and the unanimous reversals of decisions in cases raising economic issues were the types of cases in which unanimous decisions were most likely to be consistent with the ideology of the court majority. Following the pioneering work of Herman Pritchett (1941, 1948), a whole generation of students of judicial decision making has focused on the votes (rather than the opinions) of judges while developing increasingly sophisticated methods of quantitative analysis. With few exceptions, modern students of appellate courts have limited these analyses to nonunanimous decisions. This limitation is usually based on Pritchett's assumption that some cases present the judge with "choice situations sufficient to alter the outcomes while other cases do not" (Goldman, 1969, p. 217). If this assumption is accepted, one must then ask how one knows which cases present reasonable decisional alternatives. The answer supplied by the Pritchett model is that dissent may be taken as an objective indicator that legitimate alternatives were open to the judges. Consensus, on the other hand, is thought to indicate the absence of a real choice situation. The reasons for the exclusion of unanimous decisions in the analysis even of courts with much lower dissent rates than those found on the Supreme Court are spelled out most clearly by Sheldon Goldman. In studies of the U.S. courts of appeals Goldman's model suggests that "in general a consensually decided case indicates that 'objectively' the case situation (either because of clear-cut precedent, or the straight-forward
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the reasons for the increase in the number of representatives voluntarily retiring from the House in the 1970s and found that a different type of representative retired in 1970s than retired in the 1960s.
Abstract: Most observers of Congress know that the number of representatives voluntarily retiring from the House increased in the 1970s, and there has been much speculation about the causes of this increase. For the most part, however, explanations of the increase are attempted without a solid understanding of the more general motivations for voluntary retirements. In order to understand these motivations, I ascertain the type of individual who in recent years has been the most likely to retire. In addition, I show that the reasons for voluntary retirement changed radically in the early 1970s. A different type of representative retired in the 1970s than retired in the 1960s. In the final section of this study I explore the relevance of this change to the increase in the number of retirees.
TL;DR: For example, the authors employed CBS News-New York Times primary election exit surveys for twenty 1976 presidential primaries to assess the impact of issue preferences upon candidate choice in presidential primaries and found that issue-voting was slightly stronger in the 1976 Republican primaries than in 1976 Democratic primaries, but that issues generally do not predict the outcomes of the 1976 primaries very well.
Abstract: This study employs CBS News-New York Times primary election exit surveys for twenty 1976 presidential primaries to assess the impact of issue preferences upon candidate choice in presidential primaries. Findings indicate that issue-voting was slightly stronger in the 1976 Republican primaries than in the 1976 Democratic primaries, but that issues generally do not predict the outcomes of the 1976 primaries very well. Some consequences of issue-voting (or the absence thereof) for governing are suggested.
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between crosscutting issues, electoral realignments, the U.S. House and public policy changes during the Civil War, 1890's and New Deal realignment was studied.
Abstract: This study focuses on the relationship between cross-cutting issues, electoral realignments, the U.S. House and public policy changes during the Civil War, 1890's and New Deal realignments. The results show that in each case the policy changes are voted through by a partisan "new" majority party. However, unlike other studies which focus on single realignments, the comparative approach allows us to distinguish important differences between realignments. The major difference is that the Civil War and 1890's realignments were more polarized than was the New Deal realignment, and the extent of party structuring of issue dimensions was greater.
TL;DR: In this article, short-term contagion in the outbreak of war involving the great powers was tested using war data for the modern Great Power system, 1495-1975. And the analysis demonstrates the likelihood of initiation of a new war to be slightly greater during an ongoing war but not after its termination.
Abstract: Hypotheses regarding short-term contagion in the outbreak of war involving the Great Powers were tested using war data for the modern Great Power system, 1495-1975. The analysis demonstrates the likelihood of initiation of a new war to be slightly greater during an ongoing war but not after its termination. Neither war's incidence-its seriousness along any or all of several dimensions-nor its frequency had any impact on the subsequent outbreak of war in the period immediately following.
TL;DR: The relationship between federal grant agencies and congressional election campaigns was examined in this paper, where the authors found that grant announcements during election periods were subject to considerable political manipulation, but that these projects for the most part would have been announced anyway, thus agencies depoliticize grant processing by allowing the politicization of the timing of the decision.
Abstract: This article examines the relationship between federal grant agencies and congressional election campaigns. The data were from two grant programs: the U.S. Economic Development Administration's public works program (1967-1979) and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's water and sewer program (1968-1971). Multivariate analyses of the number of grants per congressional district and the processing time of projects announced during election periods indicated that agency grant announcements during election campaigns were subject to considerable political manipulation, but that these projects for the most part would have been announced anyway. Thus agencies depoliticize grant processing by allowing the politicization of the timing of the decision.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate the relationship between the combination of individuals' psychological predispositions and selected contextual factors in their political environments and their relative rates of voter registration and turnout.
Abstract: The primary focus of this study is upon the relationship between the combination of individuals' psychological predispositions and selected contextual factors in their political environments and their relative rates of voter registration and turnout. The design of the study involves an investigation which combines both individual-level and institutional factors which affect voter participation. The results indicate that while convenience factors associated with the "costs" portion of a Downsian participation model do in general add significantly to the prediction of electoral participation, the attitudinal predispositions associated with the "value" of such participation are much more important.
TL;DR: This paper examined a set of alternate question formats and contrast them with the seven-point format used in the more recent election studies of the Center for Political Studies (CPS) of the University of Michigan.
Abstract: The ability to measure mass attitudes on policy matters is intimately related to the format in which policy questions are presented to respondents. In this paper we examine a set of alternate question formats and contrast them with the seven-point format used in the more recent election studies of the Center for Political Studies (CPS) of the University of Michigan. The analysis is based on a sample of 280 respondents interviewed by the CPS in 1979. Our results indicate that some modifications of the traditional format seem warranted. Responses to the traditional format are difficult to interpret, produce an excessive number of responses in the middle category, and fail to allow for respondent ambiguity. Two of the new formats offer attractive alternatives: the "branching" format presents issue questions in a manner analogous to the traditional party identification question and seems to resolve at least partially the interpretation and middle-category problems; the "ambiguity" format duplicates the seven-point format but allows respondents to answer in ranges as well as at specific points on the issue scale.
TL;DR: The degree to which blacks have penetrated municipal civil service bureaucracies is found to vary positively from city to city as a function of several economic factors: the health of the local private sector, the relative scarcity of prestige jobs in private industry for blacks, and weak or absent public employee union coverage as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The degree to which blacks have penetrated municipal civil service bureaucracies is found to vary positively from city to city as a function of several economic factors: the health of the local private sector, the relative scarcity of prestige jobs in private industry for blacks, and weak or absent public employee union coverage. To the extent that bureaucratic employment provides access to policymaking, blacks are increasingly laying claim to a significant share of the governance of economically healthy cities, more so even than in the fiscally precarious cities governed by black mayors. It is in these economically healthy cities that true possibilities for biracial local government are seen to exist.
TL;DR: The authors use reaction functions to disentangle the consequences of discretionary acts of authorities from the constraints under which they operate, using reaction functions as a broad class of single-equation models.
Abstract: A central concern of policy research is to disentangle the consequences of discretionary acts of authorities from the constraints under which they operate. In economic policy research, reaction functions, a broad class of single-equation models, appear to offer insights into this problem. However, reaction functions share many of the pitfalls of the empirical use of optimizing models of policy, and particular difficulties attach to disentangling the results of preferences from constraints. Using reaction functions in comparative research magnifies this problem. Even so, the reaction function approach provides an attractive framework incorporating many of the traditional concerns of research into the politics of economic policy, provided due caution is exercised in selecting hypotheses to test.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the question of why some interstate disputes evolve into wars while others do not, and propose that factors accounting for different outcomes can be divided into two groups: those associated with the bargaining behavior of the disputants and the attributes of the dispute.
Abstract: The authors address the question of why some interstate disputes evolve into wars while others do not. They propose that factors accounting for different outcomes can be divided into two groups: those associated with the bargaining behavior of the disputants and those associated with the attributes of the dispute and disputants. They develop a typology of bargaining behavior and show that eight ideal types of bargaining behavior can be ranked with respect to their propensities to entangle disputants in war. While there exists predictable variance in dispute outcomes across these categories of bargaining behavior, there also exists some variance within the categories. The authors suggest that this withingroup variance largely is accounted for by the relative capabilities of the disputants, the relative determination of opposing regimes to pursue their objectives, and the willingness of the great powers to intervene in or mediate ongoing disputes.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss three interrelated issues concerning the use of time in cross-sectional policy research in the American states: (1) the proper relation of independent and dependent variables with respect to time, (2) the instability of crosssectional variable arrays and measures of association over time, and (3) the relative relation of variables measured at a single point in time and variables measured over longer periods of time.
Abstract: This paper discusses three interrelated issues concerning the use of time in cross-sectional policy research in the American states: (1) the proper relation of independent and dependent variables with respect to time, (2) the instability of cross-sectional variable arrays and measures of association over time, and (3) the proper relation of variables measured at a single point in time and variables measured over longer periods of time. Data are drawn from the comparative state policy literature to demonstrate the importance of these issues. Time has not been an issue of major theoretical or operational concern in this literature. However, one's operational use of time can have an important effect on one's findings. Although there is no single correct way to handle time in cross-sectional analysis, the paper suggests guidelines for future research.
TL;DR: 3 hypotheses--community preferences incentives and disincentives and organizational norms--that past research identifies as possible explanations of variation in hospital abortion policies following the Supreme Court Roe v Wade decision are tested and indicate that organizational norms have the strongest influence on abortion policies.
Abstract: 3 hypotheses--community preferences incentives and disincentives and organizational norms--that past research identifies as possible explanations of variation in hospital abortion policies following the Supreme Court Roe v. Wade decision in 1973 are tested. The Court with this decision established a national policy recognizing the right of a woman to terminate an unwanted pregnancy. A brief overview of judicial abortion policy and hospital responses to the abortion decision is included along with a review of the literature on policy implementation judicial impact and health policy. Responses from a national sample of hospital administrators revealed that almost half of the hospitals (47 percent) changed their abortion policies after 1973. A small number (5 percent) restricted their services but a much larger number (42 percent) expanded their services. Most increases in abortion services were by hospitals that changed their policy from providing only therapeutic abortions to providing elective abortions. Only a small number of hospitals changed from no abortions to therapeutic only. Data for this analysis are from a national random sample of hospitals. The sample consists of all (N=325) general medical and obstetric hospitals listed in "The Guide to the Health Care Field" (1975) serving the largest city in 150 randomly selected counties in the U.S. The dependent variable is hospital abortion policies in 1979; the variable indicates different levels of nonprovider policies as well as different levels of provider services. The hypotheses suggest 3 types of independent variables--community preferences and demands incentives and disincentives and organizational norms--to explain variation in hospital abortion policy. Multiple indicators of each type of independent variable are used. Overall the results of the tests of the 3 hypotheses indicate that organizational norms have the strongest influence on abortion policies with community preferences having a moderate impact and incentive/disincentive considerations having little impact. Simple correlations fail to indicate the relative strength of each set of variables. Controlling for rival explanations it was found that only organizational variables related strongly to hospital abortion policies. With 2 exceptions--percent religious and the number of nonhospital providers in the county--all significant relationships between abortion policies and nonorganizational variables wash out.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a necessary understanding of the main statistical issues involved in contextual analysis and provide an empirical example that shows strong contextual effects, but they do not address the problem of statistical inference.
Abstract: Political science research in a number of areas is concerned with the effects of contextual explanatory variables. Unfortunately, most past contextual research is seriously flawed by problems of statistical inference that can produce false and misleading results. This paper attempts to equip contextual researchers with a necessary understanding of the main statistical issues involved in contextual analysis. After outlining the basic problems of statistical inference, the paper provides an empirical example that shows strong contextual effects.
TL;DR: The authors argue that the attainment of answers to the questions posed by scholars who are interested in international conflict is often logically precluded by both their conceptualizations of conflict and war and by their method of selecting cases.
Abstract: The purpose of this Workshop article is to augment the emerging literature on problems of "cumulation" in quantitative international politics in general and international conflict in particular. This paper suggests that the attainment of answers to the questions posed by scholars who are interested in international conflict is often logically precluded by both their conceptualizations of conflict and war and by their method of selecting cases. Further, it reasons that the question of how determinants in the process that leads to war are logically related to one another and to conflict itself is as important as identifying which factors are the determinant. Although these contentions are neither original nor complex, the argument here is that a general failure to understand or recognize such rather basic, logical problems has impeded the development of a base of varifiable, replicable and generalizable knowledge about the causes and consequences of international conflict.
TL;DR: For example, the authors showed that the number of vacancies occurring in the U.S. Supreme Court can be viewed as a series of independent events that distribute themselves across time according to some statistical function.
Abstract: When Jimmy Carter stepped down as president on January 20, 1981, he carried with him at least one unique distinction: he is the only president serving four or more years who failed to make a single appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court. Since four-year presidents have appointed as many as five justices in a term and have averaged approximately two such appointments,' the Carter experience may be seen by some as anomalous. This is particularly true if one thinks the age and health of the Court's justices at the beginning of a presidency are predictors of the appointments to be made over the following four years,2 or if one views the appointments themselves as interdependent events. From a different perspective, one may view the vacancies occurring in the Court as a series of independent events that distribute themselves across time according to some statistical function. After Franklin D. Roosevelt was unable to make any Court appointments in his first term, W. Allen Wallis (1936) established that, on a yearly basis, the frequency of vacancies was accurately described by a Poisson function.3 The Wallis analysis covered the period 1837-1932, finding a significant fit between a Poisson distribution of vacancies and the distribution of the actual va-