Arthshastra : Indian Journal of Economics & Research 

About: Arthshastra : Indian Journal of Economics & Research is an academic journal published by Associated Management Consultants, PVT, Ltd.. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Population & Agriculture. It has an ISSN identifier of 2278-1811. Over the lifetime, 68 publications have been published receiving 78 citations.

Export and Economic Growth in Select South Asian Countries: Causality Analysis Based on Granger Test & VECM

Abstract: Over the past thirty years, many developing countries have adopted export promotion as their development policy. The export-led growth approach encouraged countries to focus on production for exports. After the miraculous performance of the East and South East Asian countries, the South Asian countries also shifted their strategy in favour of export oriented policies. The present study analyzed the export-led growth hypothesis in select South Asian countries namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka by using unit root, cointegration, vector error correction model, and Granger causality test. Time series data for exports and imports of goods&services and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were taken for the period from 1980-2012 from The World Bank's world development indicators. The study concluded that export-led growth hypothesis was valid for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only in the long run. For India, the study found evidence of export-led growth hypothesis, particularly for the short run. No short run and long run relationship was found for Pakistan. The VECM results for imports and GDP per capita showed that imports significantly caused GDP per capita only in Bangladesh, but no long run causal relationship was found from GDP per capita to imports. The results of the Granger causality test do not show any causal relationship between imports and GDP per capita except for Pakistan, in case of which there is unidirectional causality from GDP per capita to imports.

Is Fiscal Policy Pro-Cyclical or Counter-Cyclical ? Evidence from India

Abstract: This study investigated the cyclicality of fiscal policy in India at the Centre, State, and combined Centre - State level by employing three alternative methods The period of analysis extended from 1970-71 to 2013-14 In general, the study finds pro-cyclicality behavior of expenditure in case of India Revenue expenditure, primary revenue expenditure, capital outlay, and total expenditure were found to be pro-cyclical at the Centre and combined Centre - State level Capital outlay was found to have more pro-cyclicality as compared to other expenditure categories both at the Centre and combined Centre - State level However, at the State level, capital outlay was not found to have any cyclical relation with output