Showing papers in "Developing Economies in 2010"

Why is the take‐up of microinsurance so low? evidence from a health insurance scheme in india

Abstract: Insurance for the poor, called microinsurance, has recently drawn the attention of practitioners in developing countries. There are common problems among the various schemes: (1) low take-up rates, (2) high claim rates, and (3) low renewal rates. In the present paper, we investigate take-up decisions using household data collected in Karnataka, India, focusing on prospect theory, hyperbolic preference, and adverse selection. Prospect theory presumes that people behave in a risk-averse way when evaluating gains but in a risk-loving way when evaluating losses. Because insurance covers losses, the risk-loving attitude toward losses might explain the low take-up rates, and we find weak empirical support for this. Households with hyperbolic preference were more likely to purchase insurance, consistent with our theoretical prediction of demand for commitment. We also find some evidence on the existence of adverse selection: households with a higher ratio of sick members were more likely to purchase insurance.

Microfinance revolution: its effects, innovations, and challenges

Abstract: “Microfinance revolution” is the term often applied to the successful expansion of small-scale financial services to the poor with high repayment records in developing countries. The present paper investigates the extent to which the microfinance revolution is truly revolutionary. More specifically, it explores the impact of microfinance institutions on the poor, the mechanisms underlying high repayment rates and their innovations, and the new challenges microfinance institutions are currently facing. Different from the existing published survey literature, we focus on current topics and attempt to show recent theoretical developments in a comprehensive manner using simplified models with very similar settings. We contend that microfinance is developing in a promising direction but has yet to reach its full potential.

The short-term poverty impact of small-scale, collateral-free microcredit in Indonesia: a matching estimator approach.

Abstract: Indonesian microfinance is primarily operated by for-profit commercial banks, characterized by large-scale loans that require collateral. In 2003, the largest nongovernmental organization in the country introduced much smaller-scale loans without a collateral requirement. This scheme is commercialized but potentially more suited to the credit demands of the poor. Applying propensity score matching with the difference-in-difference method, this paper examines whether the emerging microcredit scheme has been successful in targeting and improving the welfare of the poor in the one year following loan disbursement. The results show that although collateral ownership is not an important determinant of participation, relatively wealthier families gain access to microcredit. The impact of microcredit on various household outcomes is generally statistically insignificant, except for sales of nonfarm enterprises for the nonpoor and schooling expenditures for the poor. This implies that the microcredit scheme under study might not have an immediate impact on poverty alleviation.

Commercialization of microfinance in indonesia: the shortage of funds and the linkage program

Abstract: Financial sustainability is important for management of microfinance institutions, but funding is always a difficult problem for them. Commercialization is expected to be one of the solutions. This article focuses on the people's credit bank (BPR), which is a commercialized but small-scale unit bank in Indonesia, and examines the effects of a liquidity support scheme, a linkage program, on BPR. The results of regression analysis, using financial data from a total of 1,104 BPRs, reveal that bank loans contribute to the expansion of BPR credit. Moreover, the effect of bank loans through the linkage program has been larger than that of bank loans only. Funds from saving and deposits have had the largest effect on the expansion of BPR credit. Concerning profitability, bank loans affect the return on assets positively, but there is no obvious effect of participation in the linkage program.

Ethnic diversity, property rights, and natural resources

Abstract: Countries rich in natural resources constitute both development failures and successes depending on their underlying socioeconomic fundamentals. Recent empirical evidence and theoretical work provide support for a resource-curse hypothesis based on ethnic fractionalization. There is also increasing empirical evidence suggesting that ethnic heterogeneity based on polarization is a strong deterrent of economic growth. In this paper, we explore the interlinkages between natural resource abundance and both measures of ethnic heterogeneity. In a two–simultaneous equation system, we assess the effects of fractionalization and polarization on property-rights protection, and thereby on growth, both directly as well as in interaction with our resource-abundance proxy. We find that ethnic polarization is more likely to have a direct negative impact on the effectiveness of property rights in a resource-rich context, which as we explain may suggest that different ethnic groups treat the contestable resource base as a semi-public good.

The determinants of employment: a sectoral analysis for Turkey

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of wages, openness, and demand on employment in the private manufacturing industry in Turkey based on panel data for the period of 1973–2001. The wage elasticity of employment increases after trade liberalization. Nevertheless, output elasticity of labor demand is higher than wage elasticity in the total manufacturing sector for the whole estimation period, and in the high- and medium-skilled sectors in the post-1980 period. Trade effects, after controlling for output, seem to have a low economic significance. The positive effects of exports on the labor intensity of production are low or are offset by labor saving effects of foreign trade, particularly in the high- and medium-skilled sectors. On the other hand, there is some evidence of a negative import effect in the low-skilled sectors, whereas in the high- and medium-skilled group a complementary relation between domestic labor and imported inputs dominates the effects.

Sources of productivity gains from fdi in indonesia: is it efficiency improvement or technological progress?

Abstract: This article investigates the spillover effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on productivity growth in the Indonesian food-processing (ISIC 311) and electrical machinery industries (ISIC 383). Total factor productivity (TFP) growth is decomposed into efficiency change and technological change by using the Malmquist productivity index. The empirical results show that efficiency improvement is the major driver of TFP growth in the food-processing industry, whereas technological progress is the dominant contributor in the electrical machinery industry. There are positive spillovers on efficiency change but negative spillovers on technological change in the food-processing industry. However, FDI spillovers turn out to be negative in efficiency change while positive in technological progress in the electrical machinery industry. These findings demonstrate that different industries experience different sources of productivity gains, which are dependent on the characteristics of firms in the industry.

Entrepreneurial human capital and micro and small business in lao pdr

Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of performance in 1,776 micro and small enterprises that represent all industry sectors and geographical regions in Lao PDR Although considerable resources are being directed toward promotion schemes in the country, empirical research on this subject is very limited This study provides concrete insights into development strategies, particularly investment in basic education The impact of business experience is small and insignificant The differences between urban and rural, and Lao and ethnic minorities are narrowing in the younger generation, but still remain very large The difference between male and female entrepreneurs found in most reports is rejected regardless of region, groups, and generation These findings would help to formulate further efforts attempting to promote this sector

Microfinance penetration and its influence on credit choice in indonesia: evidence from a household panel survey

Abstract: This paper studies empirical determinants of how heterogeneous households are matched to different types of loan products in a credit market in Indonesia. A unique situation arose when a microfinance institution launched operations in our survey area during the survey period, and we utilized its market entry for conducting mixed logit analysis of households’ credit choices. Time-varying choice sets help us identify parameters regarding preferences for various credit attributes. Our results show that the new availability of small-scale loans without collateral requirement greatly increases households’ probability of obtaining credit overall. Households in self-employed business prefer formal credit as a stable financing source but are impeded in receiving it when they locate in a rural area, probably because of large transaction costs. The poorest households, however, might not be able to exploit new credit opportunities as much as richer households, even if the scale of credit is very small.

Border barriers in agricultural trade and the impact of their elimination: evidence from east asia

Abstract: We investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and nontariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade in a notional East Asian Free Trade Agreement using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-based computable general equilibrium model. The investigation is divided into two parts. We first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely used method derived from the literature on border effects. Then, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does incorporate, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and NTPBs) on GDP. The result shows that there are remarkable differences between the effect of abolition of import tariffs and that of entire elimination of all import barriers.

Agrarian land tenancy in prewar japan: contract choice and implications on productivity

Abstract: This paper studies the determinants of agrarian tenancy contract choice and its implication on productivity in prewar Japan. Rapid agricultural growth under extensive tenancy relationships in prewar Japan was achieved with the prevalence of a unique rent reduction contract, which was more efficient than a share tenancy or a pure fixed-rent contract in terms of provision of incentives and risk-sharing. Despite its potential efficiency, a rent reduction contract incurred substantial transaction costs, which may have inhibited its adoption outside Japan. The prevalence of this contract in prewar Japan was likely due to the presence of villages that reduced such costs through informal governance of the private tenancy relationships. We found quantitatively at the village level that the choice of tenancy contract in prewar Iwate prefecture was affected by risk and possibly transaction costs. Furthermore, a sign of Marshallian inefficiency was found at the prefecture level, where the prevalence of tenancy and productivity is negatively correlated and such inefficiency was worse in prefectures with a greater proportion of share tenancy.

Hong kong's inflation and deflation under the us dollar peg: the balassa-samuelson effect or export price shocks?

Abstract: Hong Kong's US dollar peg, adopted in 1983, has failed to deliver price stability. Hong Kong experienced high inflation before the Asian financial crisis and prolonged deflation after it. The annual rate of inflation (GDP-deflator based) was 7.4% in the first period (1985–97) and −2.0% in the second (1998–2007). There was no clear trend for the inflation rate to converge to the US level. The nominal anchor via a fixed exchange rate in Hong Kong had an upward and downward drift in the order of 4% from the US inflation rate, casting doubt on the anchor's efficacy. Despite Hong Kong's high output growth relative to that of the United States, the Balassa-Samuelson effect was not the main factor behind the pre-Asian crisis inflation. Price shocks in service exports played a major role in Hong Kong's general prices through the two periods.

Welfare gains of aid indexation in small open economies

Abstract: Foreign-aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks, like a change in the terms of trade, can significantly improve the welfare of an aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms-of-trade shocks can reduce the cost of business-cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by 4% of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by 3% without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.

Trust in health providers as a catalyst for malaria prevention: heterogeneous impacts of health education in rural ghana

Abstract: Although knowledge about effectiveness of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) is fairly widespread in Ghana, their use remains far from universal. We test and validate the hypothesis that health education of hospitals and health centers in rural Ghana is more effective for groups that display relatively high trust to health providers. We estimate heterogeneous impacts of health education on ITN and/or bed net use and on fever as a crude proxy for malaria in the Brong Ahafo and Upper East regions in Ghana, with help of propensity-adjusted regression. The degree of trust in health providers appears to be a key factor in determining the effectiveness of health education in both regions. The effect is not ruled out by controlling for general trust. There are indications of nonlinear effects. The Kassena-Nankana seems to be an exception to this rule—despite low trust in health providers, health education is highly effective for this ethnic group.

Impact of communist parties on the individual decision to join a trade union: evidence from india

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact on individual decisions to unionize of several factors: the reach of communist parties, the degree of political activism, personal attributes of workers, and industrial characteristics. The workers examined are Indian nonagricultural regular workers, using micro-data from the 2004–5 Employment and Unemployment Survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation, linked to state-level factors. A notable result is that the reach of communist parties has considerable effect on unionization probability. Moreover, it seems that the mere existence of communist parties in a state also facilitates unionization to some extent. State-level political activism and unemployment rate also influence the individual decision to join a union. The paper concludes also that a worker's gender, marital status, ethnic background, employment status, experience, occupation, sector of employment, establishment size, and type of industry remain important in the determination of union membership.

Disparities in the benefits from democratic reform in nigeria: a gender perspective

Abstract: There is data evidence that welfare has improved post–democratic reform in Nigeria. However, the distribution or concentration of the benefits in subgroups of the population is unknown. In this paper, the question of differential welfare impacts across and within gender following democratic reform in Nigeria is explored. Two related hypotheses are investigated. First, there is no disparity in the income and returns-to-education benefits of democratic reform across genders in Nigeria. Second, there are no within-gender disparities in the impact of democratic reform on income and returns to education in Nigeria. From the results, both hypotheses are rejected. Though men and women both benefitted from democratic reforms, economically significant within- and between-gender differences exist.

Exploring the spectrum of export destination: the geographic spread of korean exports, its determinants, and policy implications

Abstract: Recent research in international trade has explored the stylized facts and causes and effects of export diversification. A simple model in this paper drawing on the work of Melitz suggests that there is an order in which a country spreads its goods to foreign countries. We estimate the order by using a methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported to several countries in our sample (unbalanced panel). We find that Korea exports its new goods first to the United States, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and most recently to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Finally we find that the countries that Korea has exported to first are those with large GDP, low tariff rates, geographic proximity, language familiarity, in-country Korean export promotion offices, and high-quality institutions.