Showing papers in "European Journal of Futures Research in 2014"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focus on the innovation management of higher education as a sector, highlighting examples of practice from industry and private providers that suggest the university needs to start engaging in this agenda if it is to remain a sustainable entity beyond 2025.
Abstract: This paper focuses on the innovation management (or lack of it perhaps) of Higher Education as a sector, highlighting examples of practice from industry and private providers that suggest the university needs to start engaging in this agenda if it is to remain a sustainable entity beyond 2025. The paper presents five scenarios for the future of Higher Education underpinned by drivers of funding, the ownership and exploitation of ‘research’, the provision of good ‘teaching’, and the potential missing link of social innovation development. By refocusing on facilitating social innovation, the university can find a new means of adding value to society that will sustain its existence beyond 2025.
54 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors distinguish three different modes of orientation which can be delivered by future studies and reflections, and suggest a "mode 3" type orientation: even diverging future studies' results can be made subject to a 'hermeneutics' of the present, where we can learn about ourselves from the diversity, variety and divergence of statements about the future.
Abstract: Debates about the future are an essential medium of modern societies’ self-understanding and governance. In this context, future studies and reflections are frequently advising decision-making processes. But the considerable diversity of statements about the future and the divergence which often becomes apparent regarding the prospects of the future threaten the possibility of delivering the desired orientation. The more divergent the envisioned futures, the more providing reliable orientation might be without any chance of success. Against this background the aim of this paper is to distinguish three different modes of orientation which can be delivered by future studies and reflections. The mode 1 orientation corresponds to the decision-theoretical model: Statements about the future are interpreted as a reliable framework into which decisions and actions have to fit as good as possible. If future studies result in strongly diverse statements (e.g. in the field of energy scenarios), orientation is only possible in a mode 2 understanding: the futures form a set of diverse possibilities within which some “robust” strategies for action might be identified. But what is beyond this distinction? If futures would completely diverge between, so to speak, paradise and apocalypse, even the mode 2 approach would no longer work (this case applies to some recent debates on new and emerging sciences and technologies). For this case I would like to suggest a ‘mode 3’ type orientation: even diverging future studies’ results can be made subject to a ‘hermeneutics’ of the present, where we can learn about ourselves from the diversity, variety and divergence of statements about the future. What we can learn from this consideration that there are extremely different ways to benefit from reflections on the future. Their feasibility depends on an epistemological issue: do images of the future in a certain context converge as soon as more reliable knowledge is fed in, or is diversity or divergence persistent?
50 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors address a problem which has not been at the forefront of futures research attention, but nevertheless it reflects some major changes in the domain of foresight and the promise of participatory approach in futures research and its practical manifestations with sometimes controversial effects.
Abstract: Historically, the capability of predicting the future has always been perceived as a matter of certain inequalities, reflecting the initiation in or access to significant knowledge with regard to the future. The prophet, the philosopher, the statesman and the scientist are emblematic figures of such cognitive hierarchies. The text addresses a problem which has not been at the forefront of futures research attention, but nevertheless it reflects some major changes in the domain of foresight. A great deal of effort has been put in search for adequate ways to handle the complexities of contemporary life as well as to come to terms with the increasing unpredictability of the future. The unstable societal dynamics challenges the traditional notions and practice of foresight. The broader inclusion of diverse participants (experts, citizens, stakeholders or nongovernmental activists) and their perspectives has been seriously considered as a means to expand the visibility of the future and promote firmer engagement with it. The promise of а participatory approach in futures research and its practical manifestations (with sometimes controversial effects) are in the focus of the paper.
44 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors aim to shed light on the debate about the futures of gender, by taking into account its significance in the current development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyborg technologies and robotics.
Abstract: This study aims to shed light on the debate about the futures of gender, by taking into account its significance in the current development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyborg technologies and robotics. Its reflections are sustained by empirical data obtained between November 2010 and January 2011, when the author engaged in a study related to Gender and Artificial Intelligence at the Department of Cybernetics, University of Reading (England) under the supervision of Professor Kevin Warwick, known as the first human cyborg for his experiments “Cyborg I” (1998) and “Cyborg II” (2002). In this context, the author formulated a questionnaire which was answered by more than one hundred students and researchers of the Department. The specific question motivating this research was: how and to what extent do gender and the intersectional differences characterizing the human species inform the development of cyborgs, robots and AI? The results of the questionnaire, presented in this article, offer original and controversial perspectives on how such epistemological approaches may impact the futures.
41 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a discourse analytical approach based on Maarten Hajer's research was used to examine several documents ranging from media publications to legislative documents and found that the political regulation is strongly influenced by the story lines and images of the future related to this technology.
Abstract: There is an ongoing controversy in many European countries about the use of hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as “fracking”, to extract shale gas. This article argues that the political regulation is strongly influenced by the story lines and images of the future related to this technology. Using a discourse analytical approach based on Maarten Hajer’s research, several documents ranging from media publications to legislative documents were examined. The results show that hopes for “a golden age of gas” and the fear of water pollution play a key role in the discourse. Story lines referring to these two conflicting images of the future form the basis for three main coalitions struggling to dominate the public and political discourse. Traces of these story lines can even be found in the legislative process on “fracking” in Germany. Based on the findings, a conclusion is presented with an evaluation of the potentials and problems of discourse analytical approaches in futures research.
39 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the concept of leadership and its significance to businesses, societies and individuals in the next 40 years and found that the leadership qualities in demand for the next Kondratieff wave calls management for being socially aware as well as direct, transparent and empowering.
Abstract: The paper investigates the concept of leadership and its significance to businesses, societies and individuals in the next 40 years. The underlying framework in the paper is the theory of socio-economic change originally developed by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff. A theory about the long cycles of modern economies and societies, it posits that we are living at the end of the fifth cycle and about to begin a new, the sixth cycle. This emerging new wave of development calls for intelligent use of resources. Leading the human capital of the organization will become a key challenge for the companies as the shift in values demands more attention to the needs of employees. As a result, three key leadership themes are rising: first, how to build a vision that motivates people over profitmaking for the shareholders. Second, how to align business ends with social ends. And third, how to build a learning organization where the usual silos are being torn down. Conclusion: The leadership qualities in demand for the next Kondratieff wave calls management for being socially aware as well as direct, transparent and empowering.
37 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a case study of 14 foresight practitioners represented American corporations or American divisions of European corporations actively using foresight was conducted. Interview data were coded and synthesized for thematic report of common and unique responses; this documented practices used in and outcomes derived from corporate foresight.
Abstract: Foresight involves future-oriented awareness and planning, enabling businesses to respond quickly and effectively to future market threats and opportunities. However, knowledge about corporate foresight practices and outcomes is limited. Corporations interested in implementing foresight are unable to identify best practices or anticipate results from foresight activities. Therefore, this qualitative, multiple holistic case study was a foundational investigation of foresight phenomenon within contemporary American corporations. A convenience sample of 14 foresight practitioners represented American corporations or American divisions of European corporations actively using foresight. Interview queries aligned with the guiding research questions explored corporate foresight methods and outcomes. Interview data were coded and synthesized for thematic report of common and unique responses; this documented practices used in and outcomes derived from corporate foresight. Foresight practitioners revealed specific actions taken by corporations in response to foresight outcomes. Actions included organizational changes, introduction of new products or product variations, new research and development projects, and inclusion of foresight project outputs such as reports, presentations, recommendations, in departmental plans. The findings suggested standardization of terminology for professional discourse, education, and practice, would benefit practitioners and corporations. Four tenets emerging from the themes were short-termism, corporate culture, implementation, and feedback loop; these tenets should guide future use of foresight in the context of for-profit corporations.
31 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a set of epistemological concepts and methodological rules for a scientific enquiry into the future are proposed to bridge the gap between the illusion of knowledge and knowledge creation.
Abstract: Thinking about the future in a scientific manner is often characterised by an illusion of knowledge, leading to precarious one-sidedness and false conclusions. The reasons for this are misinterpretations of core scientific concepts as well as vested interests in knowledge creation and scientific advice; these misinterpretations and interfering interests can prevail because there is no coherent set of rules on what a scientific enquiry into the future could look like. To provide a foundation for further discussion, this article takes the knowledge illusion seriously and drafts some epistemological concepts and methodological rules that could bridge this gap. Ways to think about the future in a scientific way correspond to scientific anticipation instead of knowledge creation, to a complex analytical worldview instead of determinism, to discourse and scepticism instead of critical rationalism, to illustrative thought experiments instead of explanatory prognoses, and to plausibility instead of probability. The concepts and rules for a scientific enquiry into the future developed in this article can help to clearly differentiate between multiple prognoses and scenarios, and to evaluate scenarios by scientific means.
30 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a participatory methodological framework, based on the future workshop participatory approach and participatory evaluation tools for planning the integrated development of a specific region, the Region of Sterea Ellada-Greece.
Abstract: The focus of the present paper is on the development of a participatory methodological framework, based on the future workshop participatory approach and participatory evaluation tools for planning the integrated development of a specific region, the Region of Sterea Ellada—Greece. Towards this end, particular emphasis is placed upon the sustainable use of natural and cultural resources for the spatial planning of alternative tourist development paths, which are effectively integrated into the local economic structure and its future perspectives. The proposed framework results in the building of scenario-specific policy guidelines which, by taking into consideration developments of the internal and external environment of the study region and the specific decision contexts these outline, support policy makers by providing a range of policy directions and policy measures that can serve effective decision-making within each specific decision context. Moreover, the participatory evaluation approach adopted in the proposed framework supports public and stakeholders’ engagement in the decision-making processes, rendering thus these processes more pluralistic, credible, legitimized and transparent, which in turn are to the benefit of the planning process, the final policy decisions and their successful implementation at the local level.
29 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a common multi-client platform as a base for further applied foresight work in the packaging sector, which aims to be a reference for a future-oriented strategic dialogue and a platform for strategic business development.
Abstract: The purpose of the research is to provide a common multi-client platform as a base for further applied foresight work in the packaging sector. It aims to be a reference for a future-oriented strategic dialogue and a platform for strategic business development. The ambition with the research is not to provide an accurate forecast, but rather to initiate an improved preparedness for and active influence on future developments. This is done by mapping and analyzing general trends and drivers in society. The potential packaging implications of those trends and drivers are then evaluated to highlight potential future demands, opportunities and threats for packaging. Methods include participatory workshops/focus groups with invited experts and users. Thus, this article provides results based on participatory foresight and Focus Group methodology. With a systematic and participatory process, a medium to long–term vision building is targeted to mobilize joint actions and influence current decision making.
27 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a heuristic model of drivers for stress in resource-rich regions is proposed, and a global three-layered map along the dimensions of (i) future regional food and water stress, (ii) fragility of countries, and (iii) resource rich countries with relevant reserves of strategic materials.
Abstract: While strategic studies on natural resources usually focus on the criticality of certain single materials, our paper starts from the inter-linkages between and among resources (called “the resource nexus”). It examines the impact any food and water stress may have on extraction activities in fragile states and regions. According to our approach, conflicts are likely to increase and may escalate in a number of countries, many of which are of relevance for the global supply of strategic materials. Future criticality for European and other industries, thus, is more likely to result from particular regions surpassing their adaptive capacities, and not mainly from limited availability or bottlenecks in the supply chain. The paper first develops a heuristic model of drivers for stress in resource-rich regions. Applying this approach, our paper then develops a global three-layered map along the dimensions of (i) future regional food and water stress, (ii) fragility of countries, and (iii) resource-rich countries with relevant reserves of strategic materials. As a result our paper tentatively identifies 15 countries at high risk and some 30 other countries being at relevant risk of causing resource supply disruptions. The conclusions underline the need to analyse those global inter-linkages and institutional mechanisms for strategic futures studies at a regional scale. As this may go beyond the capacities of actors on commodity markets, our paper also draws conclusions towards the establishment of an international data hub on the global resource nexus and for futures research. The paper points to some of the long-term implications of these issues.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors look at the potential implications of living within the "safe operating space" for people, business and the economy, and develop a positive vision of the future based on three pillars: a safeand fair use of global resources, a sustainable society and a transformed economy.
Abstract: A desirable future critically depends on our ability to ensure the supply of key resources while simultaneously respecting planetary boundaries. This paper looks at the po- tential implications of living within the "safe operating space" for people, business and the economy. It develops a positive visionofthe futurebased onthree pillars:a safeand fairuse of global resources, a sustainable society, and a transformed economy.Wereviewandbuildonrecentsustainabilityvisions to develop a holistic reflection on what life in 2050 could look like, and explore the key changes in the economy needed to get there. In particular we show that resource efficiency re- quires a systemic shift in values, innovation, governance and management regimes. We present a bold vision for Europe underlined by indicators and targets, explore transition chal- lenges to getting there and conclude with a list of key policies needed for overcoming challenges and reaching the vision.
TL;DR: In this paper, it is argued that the intimate nature of language, as well as the intimacy of the senses, form important elements in the theory and practice of futures, and that intimacy and the sensory experience of the world provide a platform for imagining, thinking and doing futures work in a more integrative and empowering way.
Abstract: It is argued in this paper that the intimate nature of language, as well as the intimacy of the senses, form important elements in the theory and practice of futures. Such elements tend to be sidelined as futurists pragmatically privilege the use of tools and techniques over the less tangible assets of relating, sensing and intuiting. Of interest in this paper is the power of intimacy to overcome the sense of separation that lies at the heart of the existential dissonance that characterises the modern ‘condition’. This is a decidedly phenomenological or even post-phenomenological position. It is argued, and then explored through two examples, that intimacy and the sensory experience of the world provide a platform for imagining, thinking and doing futures work in a more integrative and empowering way.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyse the forms and character of future expertise utilized in government and administration during the 1960s and focus on West German futures research and its advisory role for the Federal Government but will also take transnational transfers of knowledge and comparative aspects into account.
Abstract: This article deals with the emergence of Futures Research after 1945 and its production of future expertise. The field of futures research (or futures studies/futurology) was conceptualised in a process of circulating knowledge in Western Europe and the USA during the 1950s and 1960s. These approaches to thinking about, forecasting and planning the future drew their arsenal of new methods largely from the field of cybernetics (such as Systems Analysis). What is more, futures research produced expertise for policy development and strategic planning. As a result of the dynamic changes in science and technology and the breakthrough of Keynesianism, the 1960s symbolized the high time of political planning in Western Europe and the USA. The paper aims to analyse the forms and character of future expertise utilized in government and administration during the 1960s. It will focus on West German futures research and its advisory role for the Federal Government but will also take transnational transfers of knowledge and comparative aspects into account. The paper will show that major strands of futures research of the 1960s were explicitly confident that they would be able to plan and control the future by using “modern” and rational methods. This led partly to a euphoria of steering. In the early 1970s, however, this confidence was shattered. One reason for this were dramatic problems in utilizing future expertise in government.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors focused mainly on foresight impact as one of the principal aspects of foresight evaluation, although they are aware of numerous objectives and aspects of the evaluation.
Abstract: Foresight is a well-known and widely used methodology for the creation of medium and long-term visions of technological, economic and social development. The need for evaluating foresight projects is unquestionable, but it is still a scarce phenomenon. The interests of the authors of the paper are focused mainly on foresight impact as one of the principal aspects of foresight evaluation, although they are aware of numerous objectives and aspects of foresight evaluation. The authors show the outcomes of case study analyses of selected evaluations conducted with regard to national and transnational foresight projects. Furthermore, current attempts to create systemic foresight evaluation frameworks are presented. They comprise general evaluation frameworks meant for the evaluation of different aspects of foresight projects execution, with respect to the process and results, including foresight impact as one of evaluated aspects as well as frameworks devoted strictly to the foresight impact evaluation. Scientific work on foresight evaluation models is still in progress and the authors of the paper indicate the current stage of models’ development.
TL;DR: In this paper, an electronic expert group support system (E-lab) is proposed to facilitate efficient foresight knowledge production by using and coalescing a series of quantitative and qualitative methods and techniques, challenging the need for better understanding of foresight methodology assumptions and options.
Abstract: Producing foresight knowledge frequently requires both evidence and creativity based expertise. This paper offers assessment of an electronic expert Group Support System (named «E-lab») facilitating efficient foresight knowledge production by using and coalescing a series of quantitative and qualitative methods and techniques, challenging the need for better understanding of foresight methodology assumptions and options. Observations and assessments of the E-lab methodology have been made in several expert workshops conducted both at the regional, national and European level over a ten years’ period (2003–2013) and across a series of foresight themes; e.g. European hydrogen society, Nordic addiction policy, National knowledge policy, Images of addiction and lifestyles in Europe, and University future governance. This methodology research adds to the body of knowledge on the effects of virtual group meetings encompassing a mixed method information platform often generated and shared in expert foresight exercises.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a qualitative analysis of megatrends, which are used to describe the main trends setting the direction for future development in transportation and their likely effects.
Abstract: The world of transportation is changing. Due to increasing mobility demand, challenges like financing, dealing with emissions and volatile oil prices are accentuated. Decision-makers in the areas of policy and planning have to address these challenges and have try to develop a transportation system capable of meeting the future needs of society and the economy. Thus there is a need for conceptions of the future system as guidelines for decisions. Besides developing new mobility solutions, adapting to a changed world of energy dependencies and addressing social developments will be the main tasks for decision-makers. This paper shows the results of future-oriented research based on the qualitative analysis of megatrends, which were used to describe the main trends setting the direction for future development in transportation and their likely effects. Based on the question of whether there is a transformation - a process of actively supporting change in the transportation system according to trends and changes in frame conditions - going on, analysis of current policies provide a different conclusion. The change in transportation appears as a process of substitution within the boundaries of the fossil-fueled world rather than as transformation in the sense of a fundamental change. Finding alternative development paths would require a perception of transformation as a process of actively shaping and redirecting the system by anticipating and addressing future challenges. Starting points and impulses in this context are rare and to be found in strategies of China, in other parts of Asia and in Europe. The approach of using recent, established and prospective, uncertain megatrends with their potential impact as a basis to provide a future perspective on change processes turned out to be an appropriate way to identify starting points for further research, which should integrate quantitative analysis. Furthermore, additional future- oriented research on megatrends would be needed to accommodate the complexity of the systemic perspective.
TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the events that have been going on in Europe shows a great evolution of the threat and the continuous emergence of new scenarios, like those represented by "lone actors" and "foreign fighters".
Abstract: Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A review of the events that have been going on in Europe shows a great evolution of the threat and the continuous emergence of new scenarios, like those represented by “lone actors” and “foreign fighters”. The complexity of the situation is due to the variety of quantitative and qualitative factors involved. Uncertainty is a key characteristic of our societies, generating fears that must be managed by governments and security institutions. Before defining new policies it is needed an analysis of the current situation of the phenomenon and its possible evolution. Critical thinking, loads of imagination, creative foresight and horizon scanning methodologies would be the pillars of the research. Policies are usually led by events and by social perception of risk. We propose a holistic approach that integrates the lessons learned from the past with modern foresight methodologies, intelligence analysis, evidence-based policing, and decision-making models. It is possible to manage our uncertainties in the present, a time and a matter in which perhaps we feel lost, but we must be sure that we are walking in a correct direction.
TL;DR: In this paper, the current conditions, manifestations, effects and prospects of the global trend of individualization in the contexts of employment and governance in Europe are analyzed in the context of European societies.
Abstract: The accelerated individualization brings immense promises for innovations in technological development, for improvement of the economic and political organization and for creativity in the cultural life of European societies. The expected changes will most probably liberate individuals from constraints in their personal development and realization. Simultaneously, individualization brings about new complexities, uncertainties and controversies. Some of them are relatively easy to manage, given the proper understanding of the challenges and the efficient coping with them. Other uncertainties and controversies are difficult to handle today and bear the potentials of future clashes at various structural levels. The major reason for tensions, conflicts and clashes is rooted in the scarcity of resources. They are never sufficient to fully satisfy the aspirations for individualization of particular individuals or groups of individuals. The current conditions, manifestations, effects and prospects of the global trend of individualization are analyzed in the contexts of employment and governance in Europe.
TL;DR: A foresight hub within the Directorate General Research and Innovation (DG RTD) of the European Commission will support the decision-making procedures of the EU Horizon 2020 research, technology, and innovation programme.
Abstract: A foresight hub within the Directorate General Research and Innovation (DG RTD) of the European Commission will support the decision-making procedures of the EU Horizon 2020 research, technology, and innovation programme. Foresight in particular is seen as an instrument defining research priorities for European society’s needs in support of the ‘grand societal challenges’. The new initiative marks the recent success of the institutional and administrative application of foresight and derives from a long history of approaches to foresight taken by the European Commission. In fact, the Commission has been implementing measures to both internalise and externalise foresight during various periods since the 1970s. This paper outlines the various phases and approaches of foresight at the European Commission. It contextualises the new attempt of the foresight hub that is assumed to support the next European Commission’s research and innovation policies.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that trans-national diffusion patterns between far right parties are not only underdeveloped in existing explanations of far right development, but are also critical for an improved and more complete understanding of the far right party phenomenon as a whole.
Abstract: An extensive literature deals with the socio-political and electoral factors that inspire and explain far right party development. Very often in this discussion, far right parties (FRPs) are hypothesised as independent entities that do not have an influence on - or are influenced by - other far right parties. This critical reflection challenges that assumption and suggests that trans-national diffusion patterns between far right parties are not only underdeveloped in existing explanations of far right development, but are also critical for an improved and more complete understanding of the far right party phenomenon as a whole. In an initial discussion of diffusion, this particular article emphasises its prominence as an explanatory factor of far party development and reflects in more detail upon its role, extent and scope. On a more normative note, a more comprehensive and accurate explanatory model of far right party development could prove to be useful to anticipate future societal evolutions and political developments.
TL;DR: The use of probabilities in scenarios will be discussed and an approach of considering additional information within the scenario creation process to select the most important scenario is shown.
Abstract: Within foresight management in general and scenario development in particular, the question is often asked: “For what scenario do I have to be prepared?” Since there are manifold approaches of scenario technique, the ways to answer this question with the help of scenario technique are also manifold. Scenario approaches using probabilities, for example, would recommend emphasizing the most probabilistic scenario. However, the consideration of probabilities, in our opinion, is not always useful. From a combinatorial point of view, any given scenario has an infinitesimal probability of being right, since there are so many possible variations (Gee et al. in Deep News Glob Bus Netw 2(4):199, 1991). Additionally, when regarding all possible developments that may be relevant for a scenario, each development has only an infinitesimal probability of coming true. Following these thoughts, the consideration of probabilities often has no additional benefit and, therefore, is not necessarily needed within scenario development. In this paper, the use of probabilities in scenarios will be discussed. On the one hand, this includes a discussion about scenarios in which the considerations do not make sense. On the other hand, the paper will also show an approach of considering additional information within the scenario creation process to select the most important scenario.
TL;DR: The EU can thus not be seen as a federation of nation states, but rather a quasi-federation of states and citizens united under a common legal framework with a universalistic underpinning.
Abstract: What could be the legitimation basis of the European Union (EU)? This article questions the idea of two constitution-making subjects in the EU and claim there is and can only be one constituting subject even in a multilevel configuration like the EU. The EU can thus not be seen as a federation of nation states. Rather it must be seen as a quasi-federation of states and citizens united under a common legal framework with a universalistic underpinning. The EU’s commitment to basic human principles means that it has a communal vocation that is broader and more universal than that of a multinational federation.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the upheavals in the Middle East cry out for a long view and that scenario development in theory is well positioned to give it and has an interest in doing so.
Abstract: Since the start of the Arab Spring, the Middle East has been the scene of conflict that resonates far beyond its borders. This paper will argue that the upheavals in the Middle East cry out for a long view and that scenario development in theory is well positioned to give it and has an interest in doing so. However, the paper will also suggest that scenario methodology for informing policy decisions for the contemporary Middle East is underdeveloped. The paper will outline some of the methodological challenges. It will also suggest improvements and alternative uses for scenarios for the Arab Spring Middle East.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose an understanding of poverty as restricted access to relevant futures: a deprivation of access to possibilities and chances, and argue that "invisible" persons living in conditions of severe poverty are forced into horizons of damaged futures.
Abstract: With poverty reduction being one of the five targets of the EU 2020 process, poverty is currently high on the agenda for the European Union and the 27 Member States. The applied methodology of measuring poverty and social exclusion (EU-SILC) calls for critical reflection, because it systematically overlooks absolute or extreme forms of poverty. Thus, the most vulnerable remain invisible. This fact poses a major challenge for future planning and the future of social policies. This article proposes an understanding of poverty as restricted access to relevant futures: a deprivation of access to possibilities and chances. Following this, we argue that “invisible” persons living in conditions of severe poverty are forced into horizons of damaged futures. Furthermore, a failure to “see” these forms of poverty has an impact on the already limited future prospects of these groups on yet another level. The most vulnerable, such as homeless children, undocumented refugees and asylum seekers, migrant beggars and other homeless people, are excluded from both analysis and social policies. This can be regarded as a second-order methodological neglect of relevant futures. Overcoming such second-order neglect is a necessary and first step towards establishing choices about relevant futures for these persons. There is a moral as well as an epistemic responsibility vis-a-vis those “invisible” groups. This is the basis for alleviating conditions of access to relevant futures. The article concludes with a plea for a “visibilization” of non-targeted and unperceived poor persons living in extreme poverty in Europe.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that it is not prudent for the EU to decrease cooperation with Russia in the short term, but rather push for a political solution without additional sanctions and in the long-term secure different fossil resources such as LNG and different suppliers such as Iraq and Iran.
Abstract: The enduring crisis in Ukraine presents the European Union (EU) with a conundrum. Should it strengthen its economic and energy ties despite Russia’s growing assertiveness in the hope to solidify its medium term energy security and reel in Russian foreign policy? Or should it rather continue to tighten the screws on the Putin regime, in the hope that doing so will concurrently compel the Russian Federation to moderate its behaviour? This paper argues that it is not prudent for the EU to decrease cooperation with Russia in the short term, but rather push for a political solution without additional sanctions and in the long-term secure different fossil resources such as LNG and different suppliers such as Iraq and Iran. Whichever way the EU chooses, Ukraine’s role in EU energy security is depreciating. Nevertheless, the EU possesses a stronger bargaining position than widely believed because Russia lacks a credible alternative to European foreign direct investments (FDI). The EU should (1) establish an energy union that includes gas storage and distribution plans and extends the Energy Community to include Turkey to pave the way for future gas flows; (2) support infrastructure projects that increase reverse flow capacities within the EU as well as South Stream or its heirs and the Southern Corridor via Turkey to enhance import capacity; and (3) massively invest into energy research.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss trust and its evident crisis with a particular focus on the education system and highlight the function of trust in the complex knowledge-based society, using implementation of evidence-based governance in education as an example.
Abstract: This article discusses trust and its evident crisis with a particular focus on the education system (1). Subsequently, the function of trust in the complex knowledge-based society is highlighted (2). Using implementation of evidence-based governance in education as an example, this paper shows how social complexity increases by linking several partial systems (3). This is followed by a discussion of some perspectives on how these combinations can be interpreted with regard to trust (4). Finally, aspects of future theoretical and empirical analysis of trust in applied social science educational research will be outlined (5).
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that the European Union has developed an elitist or Schumpeterian democracy and that democratization continues to this day, albeit slowly, albeit with a steady strengthening of the European Parliament.
Abstract: Europe has been facing a multi-dimensional crisis since 2008 with a strong impact on the quality of democracy in the EU and its member states. The continuous loss of citizens’ support threatens the very existence of the EU more than any other dimension of the crisis. For decades, the legitimacy of European politics was based on a permissive consensus and Pareto-efficient outputs, but since the late 1990s and especially as a direct consequence of economic problems, cuts in social systems and an emerging gap between the rich and the poor, the output-legitimacy is no longer sufficient. Today, the future of decision making and the democratization of the EU have become burning issues for the Union’s stability. In the light of rising scepticism and distrust in political elites all over Europe, further democratization is urgently needed. European policy makers are well aware of this. Since the 1990s, there have been discussions about a democratic deficit. And even since the late 1970s, a trend towards the democratization of the European Communities and the EU has been perceptible with a steady strengthening of the European Parliament. To date, however, all these efforts could neither fully eradicate the democratic shortcomings of EU decision making nor avoid mistrust and disinterest among European citizens. This paper argues that the European Union has developed an elitist or Schumpeterian democracy and that democratization continues to this day, albeit slowly. It is, however, bypassed by the trend towards extending the gap between elites and citizens which foils the democratization process and threatens European integration as a whole.
TL;DR: The authors put forward the notion of "irritation expertise" to push others into a direction not chosen voluntarily, which is of particular importance when players in policy contexts try to influence each other by providing future-oriented knowledge that is inherently uncertain.
Abstract: The contribution at hand puts forward the notion of “irritation expertise”: knowing how to push others into a direction not chosen voluntarily. This kind of knowledge, I will argue, is of particular importance when players in policy contexts try to influence each other by providing future-oriented knowledge that is inherently uncertain. Yet, it is striking that comparatively little attention has been drawn to the question how to reach specific addressees; this is what media studies and conversation analysis call “recipient design”. Presenting the example of ProPublica, a US investigative journalism newsroom, illustrates what irritation expertise as instrument for policy development and strategic reasoning means. ProPublica deals with very different formats—from research reports to comic strips—depending on whose behavior it intends to change—from decision-makers to the (general) public. Discussing what Futures Research may learn from this practice concludes this contribution.
TL;DR: The European integration project is confronting one of the greatest challenges in its recent history as mentioned in this paper, and the profound current financial crisis is jeopardising both trust in the process of integration and the support of European Union citizens.
Abstract: The European integration project is confronting one of the greatest challenges in its recent history. The profound current financial crisis is jeopardising both trust in the process of integration and the support of European Union citizens. This paper aims to show the need to find transversal solutions to the immediate and future challenges that the European integration project faces. These solutions could emerge from the retrieval of the idea of including a European Dimension in Education, as a joint political strategy of the European Union and the Council of Europe, given that two separate, but convergent, trends have been identified. Special importance will be placed on the four action points that the European dimension could adopt (curricular and teaching materials; creation of school networks and extracurricular activities; initial and on going teacher training; and styles of centre management, leadership and administration). A firm commitment to embed a great deal of Europeanism into the education of the younger European generations (from the earliest age possible) would favour both a greater, and better, understanding of the process, and the active, participative and critical development of European citizens. It is here where the future challenge for European Education lies.