Showing papers in "International Journal of Financial Studies in 2018"

The Impact of Capital Structure on Risk and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence for the Bucharest Stock Exchange Listed Companies

Abstract: This paper analyzes the evolution of the main theories regarding the capital structure and the related impact on risk and corporate performance. The capital structure is a dynamic process that changes over time, depending on the variables that influence the overall evolution of the economy, a particular sector, or a company. It may also change depending on the company’s forecasts of its expected profitability, capital structure being, in fact, a risk–return compromise. This study contributes to the literature by investigating the drivers of capital structure of the firms from the Romanian market. For the econometric analysis, we applied multivariate fixed-effects regressions, as well as dynamic panel-data estimations (two-step system generalized method of moments, GMM) on a panel comprising the companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The analyzed period, 2000–2016, covers a cycle with significant changes in the Romanian economy. Our results showed that leverage is positively correlated with the size of the company and the share price volatility. On the other hand, the debt structure has a different impact on corporate performance, whether this calculated on accounting measures or seen as market share price evolution.

The impact of revenue diversification on bank profitability and stability: Empirical evidence from South Asian countries

Abstract: This paper is a contribution to the ongoing debate on the benefits and drawbacks of bank revenue diversification. Revenue diversification may benefit banks if diversified activities are inherently less risky and possess high returns, while it may hurt banks if diversified activities are more risky and have low returns. Analyzing a panel dataset of 200 commercial banks from all South Asian countries, we found that overall revenue diversification into non-interest income has a positive impact on the profitability and stability of South Asian commercial banks. We further observed that different types of non-interest income-generating activities have different impacts on bank performance and stability. While fees and commission incomes have a negative impact on the profitability and stability of South Asian commercial banks, other non-interest income has a positive impact. Our results imply that banks can benefit from revenue diversification if they diversify into specific types of non-interest income-generating activities. Our findings are robust and relevant to the use of alternative measures of revenue diversification, profitability and stability.

Profitability Determinants of Financial Institutions: Evidence from Banks in Pakistan

Abstract: The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of banks in Pakistan. This study applied the two-step generalized method of momentum (GMM) system estimator on an unbalanced dynamic panel of 28 banks over the latest period 2007–2016. The robust results reveal that the bank’s profitability in Pakistan is explained by size, higher solvency, financial structure, operating cost, labor productivity, market power, and economic growth. We also found an inverted U-shape relationship between banks size and profitability. Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) was applied to evaluate the impact of market power and found results in support of Structure Conduct Hypothesis. On the other hand, credit quality, operational efficiency, banking sector development, inflation, and industry concentration are found to be negatively and significantly related to the profitability of banks. Further, this study found lower profitability of banks during the government transition. The Mean comparison of profitability indicates that specialized banks (SB) in Pakistan are generating higher net interest margin (NIM) than all commercial banks (ACB). However, the empirical results of this study are robust and consistent with previous literature.

The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Developing Countries along “One Belt and One Road”

Abstract: The “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) project was started by the Chinese government with the aim of achieving sustainable economic development and increasing cooperation with other countries. This project has five major objectives, which include (i) increasing trade flow, (ii) encouraging policy coordination, (iii) improving connectivity, (iv) obtaining financial integration, and (v) fortifying closeness between people. This paper aims to analyze the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries along “One Belt and One Road”. We selected seven developing countries which are part of this project, namely Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. We collected panel data for the period 1995 to 2016 from the U.S. Heritage Foundation, International Financial Statistics (IFS) (a database developed by the International Monetary Fund), and World Development Indicators (WDI) (a database developed by the World Bank). We applied Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) and threshold-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (TGARCH) (1,1) models to measure the exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, we employed a fixed effect model to analyze the relationship of exchange rate volatility with international trade and FDI. The results of this paper revealed that exchange rate volatility affects both international trade and FDI significantly but negatively in OBOR-related countries, which correlates with the economic theory arguing that exchange rate volatility may hurt international trade and FDI. It can be concluded that exchange rate volatility can adversely affect international trade and FDI inflows in OBOR-related countries.

Financial Innovation, Stock Market Development, and Economic Growth: An Application of ARDL Model

Abstract: This study aims to explore the relationship between economic growth, financial innovation, and stock market development of Bangladesh for the period 1980–2016. To investigate long-run cointegration, this study used the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach. In addition, the Granger-causality test is used to identify directional causality between research variables under the error correction term. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between financial innovation, stock market development, and economic growth. Furthermore, the findings from the Granger-causality test support bidirectional causality between financial innovation, economic growth and stock market development, and economic growth both in the long run and short run. These findings support the theory that market-based financial development and financial innovation in the financial system can spur economic development.

Review of Research into Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction in Selected Central and Eastern European Countries

Abstract: In developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors, the geopolitical situation and the introduced economic system, this issue became the subject of researcher interest only in the 1990s. Therefore, it is worthwhile to analyze whether these countries conduct bankruptcy risk assessments and what their level of advancement is. The main objective of the article is the review and assessment of the level of advancement of bankruptcy prediction research in countries of the former Eastern Bloc, in comparison to the latest global research trends in this area. For this purpose, the method of analyzing scientific literature was applied. The publications chosen as the basis for the research were mainly based on information from the Google Scholar and ResearchGate databases during the period Q4 2016–Q3 2017. According to the author’s knowledge, this is the first such large-scale study involving the countries of the former Eastern Bloc—which includes the following states: Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine, Hungary, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, and Belarus. The results show that the most advanced research in this area is conducted in the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Russia, and Hungary. Belarus Bulgaria and Latvia are on the other end. In the remaining countries, traditional approaches to predicting business insolvency are generally used.

Do Big Four Auditors Always Provide Higher Audit Quality? Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of external auditors in potentially approving or limiting a firm’s earnings management practices in institutional settings which do not provide incentives for auditors to deliver high audit quality. We use signed discretionary and performance-adjusted discretionary accruals as proxies for earnings management, and audit firm size (Big 4 vs. Non-Big 4) and audit opinion type (Qualified vs. Unqualified) as measures for audit quality. Using a sample of 183 firms listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan for the five-year period from 2009 to 2013, we find that there is statistically no significant difference between earnings management activities of firms audited by Big 4 and non-Big 4 auditors. Audit opinion is not being issued in response to the earnings management activities being employed by firms. Further consistent with the entrenchment hypothesis, we find that earnings management is pervasive in family controlled firms and Big 4 auditors do not moderate the relation between family firm dominance and earnings management. A small audit market coupled with non-existent litigation risk, strong economic bonding of auditors with their clients, lower investor protection, poor enforcement mechanisms and dominance of firms by influential family groups lead auditors to behave opportunistically, which undermines their independence and objectivity.

Bank Ownership, Board Characteristics and Performance: Evidence from Commercial Banks in India

Abstract: We study the effect of board governance in state-owned and private banks by undertaking a study of commercial banks in India that has both bank groups. Covering a ten-year period from 2003 to 2012 that witnessed a large number of governance reforms in India, the results of our empirical analysis provide evidence of strong ownership effects with board independence exhibiting a significant positive correlation with the performance of private banks and a significant but negative correlation with the performance of state-owned banks. The effect of CEO duality is negative in state-owned banks where incidence of CEO duality is high. We find that a longer CEO tenure has significant positive effects on bank outcomes with these effects strengthening in the later years of CEO tenure. Our results have governance implications for strengthening the composition of board of directors and CEO tenure especially in state-owned banks.

Hidden Markov Model for Stock Trading

Abstract: Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical signal prediction model, which has been widely used to predict economic regimes and stock prices. In this paper, we introduce the application of HMM in trading stocks (with S&P 500 index being an example) based on the stock price predictions. The procedure starts by using four criteria, including the Akaike information, the Bayesian information, the Hannan Quinn information, and the Bozdogan Consistent Akaike Information, in order to determine an optimal number of states for the HMM. The selected four-state HMM is then used to predict monthly closing prices of the S&P 500 index. For this work, the out-of-sample R OS 2 , and some other error estimators are used to test the HMM predictions against the historical average model. Finally, both the HMM and the historical average model are used to trade the S&P 500. The obtained results clearly prove that the HMM outperforms this traditional method in predicting and trading stocks.

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Financial Development in Central and Eastern European Union Countries: A Panel Cointegration and Causality

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows have increased considerably in the globalized world as of the mid-1980s. The main objective of this research is to analyze interactions between FDI inflows and financial sector development in Central and Eastern European Union countries between 1996 and 2015 with panel data analysis. Our findings reveal that there is no cointegrating relationship among FDI inflows, investments of foreign portfolio, and the development of financial sectors, but there is a one-way causality from development of financial sectors to FDI inflows over the short run.

Applications of Distress Prediction Models: What Have We Learned After 50 Years from the Z-Score Models?

Abstract: Fifty years ago, I published the initial, classic version of the Z-score bankruptcy prediction models. This multivariate statistical model has remained perhaps the most well-known, and more importantly, most used technique for providing an early warning signal of firm financial distress by academics and practitioners on a global basis. It also has been used by scholars as a benchmark of credit risk measurement in countless empirical studies. Practical applications of the Altman Z-score model have also been numerous and can be divided into two main categories: (1) from an external analytical standpoint, and (2) from an internal to the distressed firm viewpoint. This paper discusses a number of applications from the former’s standpoint and in doing so, we hope, also provides a roadmap for extensions beyond those already identified.

Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability: Evidence from an Oil-Dependent Economy

Abstract: This study investigated bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability in Azerbaijan, an oil-dependent economy in transition. A huge drop in oil prices, a significant devaluation of the national currency, and the financial distress were the main motivations of the study. We applied Panel Generalized Method of Moments to the data in the framework of dynamic model of the bank profitability. It was found that bank size, capital, and loans, as well as economic cycle, inflation expectation, and oil prices were positively related to the profitability, whereas deposits, liquidity risk, and exchange rate devaluation were negatively associated with it. We further found that the bank profitability demonstrated moderate persistence and ignoring the country-specific features could lead to bias and poor performance in estimations. The conclusions of this research would aid in setting banking policies towards increasing profitability. This may be supplemented by ensuring strong research departments within the banks tasked with analyzing and forecasting the main macroeconomic indicators. The novel features of the study include utilizing recent economic trends, accounting for country-specific features, and for the first time, examining the effects of the economic cycle on the bank profitability in Azerbaijan. In addition, the study featured proper addressing time series properties of the panel data, and performances of robustness checks for consistency of results.

BREXIT and Foreign Direct Investment: Key Issues and New Empirical Findings

Abstract: This contribution takes a new look at the gravity equation model in relation to foreign direct investment (FDI) of leading industrialized countries which presents a useful basis for assessing certain potential impacts arising from BREXIT—the envisaged leaving of the EU by the United Kingdom. The gravity equation estimated subsequently allows one to consider the case of BREXIT and the broader role of EU membership and other variables. Looking at the period from 1985 to 2012 for a dataset which contains 34 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) dyadic fixed estimations take into account a broad set of approaches and variables. Besides the traditional variables of the EU/EU single-market membership of the source country and of the host country, we further consider the role of trade openness as well as corporate tax rates and the ratio of inward FDI stock to total capital stock. The analysis shows that trade openness is a variable which can be largely replaced by the inward FDI stock/capital stock ratio so that gravity FDI modeling with a strong emphasis on trade openness is likely to overstate the role of trade and to understate the role of relative FDI accumulation effects. The implication for BREXIT analysis is that the UK will face three impulses for FDI inflows: (1) leaving the EU single market will strongly reduce FDI inflows; (2) if foreign ownership in UK capital stock should strongly increase in the run-up to the BREXIT year 2019, part of the dampening effects of leaving the EU will be mitigated by the increase of the FDI stock/capital stock ratio, which in turn is likely to reflect a Froot–Stein effect related to real pound depreciation for 2016–2018; (3) to the extent that the UK government will want to reinforce output growth through higher FDI inflows, a reduction of corporate taxation could generate high effects but could also stimulate a downward international corporate tax reduction game.

Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels

Abstract: The study primarily explores the linkage between wealth effects, arising from stock and housing market channels, and household final consumption for 11 advanced countries over the period from 1970 Q1 to 2015 Q4. As a modelling strategy, we employ regression analysis through the common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimator, as well as Durbin–Hausman cointegration and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality tests. The study provides various pieces of evidence through whole-panel and country-level analyses. In this respect, we find that consumption is mostly explained by income and housing wealth is positively and significantly correlated with consumption. As counter-intuitive evidence, we detect a negative linkage between consumption and stock wealth. The evidence also suggests a long-run cointegration relationship among consumption, income, interest rates, housing wealth, and stock wealth. Moreover, we find bidirectional causality between consumption and income, stock wealth, housing wealth, and interest rates. Overall, the evidence implies that housing wealth, rather than stock wealth, is the primary source of consumption growth in advanced countries.

Using Grey Incidence Analysis Approach in Portfolio Selection

Abstract: Due to the development of financial markets, products, financial and mathematical models, portfolio selection today represents a comprehensive set of activities. Investors take into consideration many different factors, such as the market factors, return distribution characteristics and financial statements information. This research applies a Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) approach to evaluate the performance on a sample of stocks by taking those different factors into consideration. The results based upon a sample of 55 stocks for the trading year 2017 on the Croatian capital market show that using GRA approach in portfolio selection provides useful guidance for investors when making investment decisions, and better portfolio results in terms of risk and return are reachable compared to an equally weighted portfolio benchmark.

Measuring the Efficiency in the Lithuanian Banking Sector: The DEA Application

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the efficiency of the banks in Lithuania by employing the DEA method and evaluate bank performance in a low interest rate environment. The efficiency scores were calculated with a non-parametric frontier input-oriented DEA technique with the variable returns to scale (VRS) and the constant returns to scale (CRS) assumptions. Five alternative models with different input-output combinations were developed, based on production, profitability and intermediation dimensions. The main bank profitability measure—the return on assets (ROA) ratio—was employed to validate the results obtained using the DEA method. The Lithuanian bank’s efficiency analysis based on the VRS assumption shows that better results are demonstrated by the local banks. The technical efficiency analysis based on the CRS assumption shows other results: the banks owned by the Nordic parent group and the branches have higher pure efficiency than local banks and have success at working at the right scale. Based on this, it stated that during the 2012–2016 period the larger Lithuanian banks (subsidiaries) applied a more appropriate business model than smaller (local) banks operating in Lithuania. Additionally, this research contributes to the scholarly literature in the field of determinants of bank business performance in concentrated markets dominated by foreign banks and, in particular, from one region.

European Club Football after “Five Treatments” with Financial Fair Play—Time for an Assessment

Abstract: UEFA’s Club Licensing and Financial Fair Play Regulations (FFP) have impacted European club football. After five distinct applications of the break-even requirement, which represents the cornerstone of these regulations, it is time for an assessment. How has the situation in European top-division football changed since the FFP regulation? The most recent financial data show that European club football is characterized by significant financial recovery and further polarization. How has the FFP regulation presumably affected this development? This article discusses plausible reasons why FFP has contributed to financial recovery but has not aggravated polarization. Understanding the drivers of polarization is essential before taking further regulatory steps.

The Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Bank Capital Regulations on Operating Efficiency

Abstract: This paper principally aims at examining the impact of capital requirements regulation on bank operating efficiency in Tanzania. The study employs bank level data for the period between 2009 and 2015. The findings show a positive and significant relationship between capital ratio and bank operating efficiency. This shows that commercial banks in Tanzania with more stringent capital regulations are more operationally efficient. This relationship proposes that capital adequacy does not only strengthen financial stability by providing a larger capital cushion but also improves bank operating efficiency by preventing a moral hazard problem between shareholders and debt-holders. This result may also imply that the increased regulations on capital requirements influence the bank’s decision to revisit their internal operations strategy in terms of strong corporate governance, risk assessment methods, credit evaluation procedures, employment of more qualified staffs, and enhanced internal control procedures. Another key finding is an inverse relationship between non-performing Loans (credit risk) and bank operating efficiency. The implication of this relationship may simply mean that the bank’s total loan and advances in combination with total deposit either due from customers or from other banks are of little importance in determining the operational efficiency of banks. This probably implies that the amount of money banks loan out is too excessive, which would attract a greater chance of default. The paper lays down some recommendations: first, banks in Tanzania are advised to invest in more advanced technological innovations to reduce the staff costs and other operating expenses to increase their operational efficiency; and, second, bank management is also advised to be more careful in the loan screening process to reduce the incidence of non-performing loans.

Determinants of dividend payout decisions : a dynamic panel data analysis of Turkish stock market

Abstract: This study analyzes the firm-specific factors affecting the dividend payout decisions of the companies whose shares are traded on the Borsa Istanbul stock exchange. To this end, the dynamic panel regression is applied to 853 observations of yearly average of 106 companies listed on the Borsa Istanbul between 2009 and 2015. According to results from the Arellano–Bover/Blunder-Bond two-step system generalized method of moments, a statistically significant positive effect on dividend payout was found in the relationship between the dividend payout of the previous year, the company’s return on equity and the market value/book value ratio, liquidity and the company’s size. The demonstration of a positive relationship between dividend payout and return on equity supports the free cash flow hypothesis and the positive relationship with the previous year’s dividend payout ratio supports the dividend smoothing hypothesis for Turkey.

Financial Crisis and Corporate Social Responsible Mutual Fund Flows

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate investment flows into mutual funds that hold more high corporate social responsible stocks (top CSR funds) vs. mutual funds that hold more low corporate social responsible stocks (bottom CSR funds). Using a large sample of equity mutual funds spanning 2003–2012, we find that top CSR funds on average receive about 5% less investment per annum compared to the other funds; whereas bottom CSR funds receive about 5.6% more investments. These relative negative and positive flows into the top and bottom CSR funds respectively were larger during the pre-financial crisis period (2003–2007). This trend, however, reversed during the financial crisis (2008–2009). Top CSR funds attracted about 8.7% more investments during the financial crisis compared to the pre-crisis period; whereas bottom CSR funds received about 9.8% less investment. This higher investment into the top CSR funds during the crisis seems to have disappeared during the post-crisis period (2009–2012). Additional analysis shows that the corporate social ratings of top CSR funds improved through the crisis, whereas it deteriorated for the bottom CSR funds. Our findings are consistent with the “flight to quality” phenomenon observed in financial markets during market crises, indicating that investors perceive top CSR fund investments as relatively safe or of higher quality and hence, invest more in them during financial crises.

How Macro Transactions Describe the Evolution and Fluctuation of Financial Variables

Abstract: The description of the dynamics and fluctuations of macro variables remains one of the most exciting problems of financial economics. This paper models macro variables via the description of transactions between agents. We use risk ratings x of agents as their coordinates in the economic space. Transactions like buy–sell, investment, credits, etc., between agents change their extensive financial and economic variables. Aggregates of transactions between all agents with risk ratings x and y define the macro transactions between points x and y. Macro transactions determine the evolution of macro variables. Interactions between different transactions outline their dynamics and fluctuations. We model macro transactions and the interactions between them by economic hydrodynamic-like equations in the economic space. As an example, for simple model interactions between credit–loans and loans–repayment transactions we derive economic hydrodynamic-like equations and wave equations for near perturbations of macro transactions and study simple wave solutions and their consequences. Waves of macro transactions in the economic space propagate from high to low risk agents or vice versa and define the fluctuations of macro financial variables. The existence and diversity of waves and fluctuations of macro transactions in simple models clarifies the importance of wave processes for macro financial modeling and forecasting.

Risk-Based Portfolios with Large Dynamic Covariance Matrices

Abstract: In the field of portfolio management, practitioners are focusing increasingly on risk-based portfolios rather than on mean-variance portfolios. Risk-based portfolios are constructed based solely on covariance matrices, and include methods such as minimum variance (MV), risk parity (RP), and maximum diversification (MD). It is well known that the performance of a mean-variance portfolio depends on the accuracy of the estimations of the inputs. However, no studies have examined the relationship between the performance of risk-based portfolios and the estimated accuracy of covariance matrices. In this research, we compare the performance of risk-based portfolios for several estimation methods of covariance matrices in the Japanese stock market. In addition, we propose a highly accurate estimation method called cDCC-NLS, which incorporates nonlinear shrinkage into the cDCC-GARCH model. The results confirm that (1) the cDCC-NLS method shows the best estimation accuracy, (2) the RP and MD do not depend on the estimation accuracy of the covariance matrix, and (3) the MV does depend on the estimation accuracy of the covariance matrix.

Brexit and uncertainty in financial markets

Abstract: This paper applies long-memory techniques (both parametric and semi-parametric) to examine whether Brexit has led to any significant changes in the degree of persistence of the FTSE (Financial Times Stock Index) 100 Implied Volatility Index (IVI) and of the British pound’s implied volatilities (IVs) vis-a-vis the main currencies traded in the FOREX (foreign exchange market), namely the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen We split the sample to compare the stochastic properties of the series under investigation before and after the Brexit referendum, and find an increase in the degree of persistence in all cases except for the British pound-yen IV, whose persistence has declined after Brexit These findings highlight the importance of completing swiftly the negotiations with the European Union (EU) to achieve an appropriate Brexit deal

Optimal Timing to Trade along a Randomized Brownian Bridge

Abstract: This paper studies an optimal trading problem that incorporates the trader’s market view on the terminal asset price distribution and uninformative noise embedded in the asset price dynamics. We model the underlying asset price evolution by an exponential randomized Brownian bridge (rBb) and consider various prior distributions for the random endpoint. We solve for the optimal strategies to sell a stock, call, or put, and analyze the associated delayed liquidation premia. We solve for the optimal trading strategies numerically and compare them across different prior beliefs. Among our results, we find that disconnected continuation/exercise regions arise when the trader prescribe a two-point discrete distribution and double exponential distribution.

On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis

Abstract: Previous research has assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a few macro variables. In this paper, we consider its impact on oil prices. Oil prices are usually determined in global markets by the law of demand and supply. Our concern in this paper is to determine which country’s policy uncertainty measure has an impact on oil prices. Using both the linear and the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methods, we find that while policy uncertainty measures of Canada, China, Europe, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the U.S. have short-run effects, short-run effects last into the long-run asymmetric effects only in the case of China. This may reflect the importance and recent surge in China’s engagement in world trade.

Development Initiatives, Micro-Enterprise Performance and Sustainability

Abstract: Towards improving the socio-economic condition of low-income households, development organizations offer a repertoire of initiatives. This study focused on the impacts of access to working capital and enterprise development training programs, on the performance and sustainability of micro-enterprises owned and managed by low-income households, in the state of Kelantan, Peninsular Malaysia. The data of 450 micro-entrepreneurs, was randomly selected from the participants’ list of three development organizations servicing Kelantan: Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia (AIM); National Entrepreneurs Economic Group Fund (TEKUN); and Malaysia Fisheries Development Board (LKIM). This study revealed several participation indicators (i.e., years of participation, total number of trainings, total number of training hours received, and number of center meetings or discussions attended, etc.), which have a positive effect on micro-enterprise performance and sustainability. However, the findings were inconclusive as one of the key participation indicators, ‘total amount of economic loans received’, showed a negative (not statistically significant) effect on micro-enterprise performance and sustainability. This study expanded the limited literature on micro-enterprise performance and sustainability, and the role of working capital and enterprise development training programs; thus providing a clearer understanding of the effectiveness of current development initiatives.

An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

Abstract: This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced into the Chinese stocks. The paper concludes that the risk-return tradeoff is present in the GARCH-in-mean, local downside risk-return, and global risk-return relations.

A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment

Abstract: The maritime industry is one of those rare industries that are both highly international integrated to international trade and also highly capital intensive dependent on substantial investment amount In the literature, ship investments have not been widely examined through the firm-level investment theories to explore the link between investment level and asset price valuation The general trend in the literature of ship investments is to analyse the relationship among the shipping markets (newbuilding, second-hand, freight rate and scrap) and their impact on asset price valuation, the timing of investments and market entry and exit conditions In this paper, we extensively reviewed the literature of firm-level investment theories and ship investments We showed that the application of firm-level investment theories to the ship investments is confined to the basic investment valuation models, such as Net Present Value and Real Option Analysis Ship investments need to be examined by firm-level investment theories to define firm/industry value maximization level within the approach of the solid investment theories

Financial and Sporting Performance in French Football Ligue 1: Influence on the Players’ Market

Abstract: Despite the globalisation of European soccer, each professional league exhibits specificities. French Ligue 1 sometimes contends with the trading-off of financial performance against sporting performance of its teams in European soccer competitions, and its inner auditing body, the Direction Nationale du Controle de Gestion (DNCG), is in charge of controlling clubs’ financial accounts. Moreover, Ligue 1 operates with one of the best competitive balances in the Big Five, which is detrimental to its clubs’ success at the European level. However, the league and a number of clubs have not been able to curb payroll inflation and have not avoided being recurrently run in a deficit and accumulating debts, in particular payment arrears and player transfer overdue. Lax management occurs, since very few clubs have been sanctioned by a payment failure, even fewer by liquidation, and there has been no bankruptcy. The concept of a soft budget constraint theoretically encapsulates such empirical evidence. The novelty of the paper is to establish a link between the soft budget constraint and the players’ labour market where it crucially triggers market disequilibria: an excess of demand for superstars’ talents and an excess of supply for journeymen players are modelled. Data paucity about player individual wages hinders econometric testing of the aforementioned link and the model. However, a look at transfer fees that concentrates on a few of the top European soccer clubs provides a first insight into the arms race for talent that fuels an excess of demand for superstars and dips a number of clubs’ finance into the red.

Performance of Exchange Traded Funds during the Brexit Referendum: An Event Study

Abstract: In today’s interrelated economies, financial information travel at speed of light to reach investors around the globe. Global financial markets experience regular shocks that transmit negative waves to other equity markets and different asset classes. Given the unique characteristics of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this paper examines how different ETFs that are traded on London Financial center reacted to the Brexit event in 23 June 2016. The unexpected referendum result the day after is viewed as the next significant financial event since 2008. The paper employs an event study market model on daily and abnormal returns of the selected ETFs with respect to FTSE 250 around the event date. Contrary to what is expected, the world equities fund experienced significant positive abnormal return on the event day. Emerging markets again proved to be a preferred investment destination in times of financial turmoil; the emerging equities fund gained 3% while enjoying an 11.5% positive significant abnormal returns. The US T-Bond fund recorded a 9% return with a significant 7.2% abnormal return. The gold fund soared as much as 4% as investors seeks refuge from Brexit, and the oil fund retraced 1% amid concerns of slowing global demand.